Recently, at Haikou Port container terminal , trucks shuttle back and forth, freighters dock in an orderly manner, and bridge cranes operate in a tight manner, presenting a busy scene. Photo by Wang Chenglong (People's Vision)
In the first half of this year, China's GDP (GDP) increased by 12.7% year-on-year, delivering a brilliant report card. Recently, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year. The meeting pointed out that to do a good job in economic work in the second half of the year, we must adhere to the general tone of work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, deepen the supply-side structural reform of , accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and promote high-quality development.
2021 "Second Half", can China take advantage of the momentum, consolidate and expand the results of epidemic prevention and control and economic recovery, strive to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks, and bring more impetus and opportunities to world economic growth? The international community is full of expectations.
Macro policy is mainly stable
In the second half of this year, against the still complex and severe world economic situation, China's economic policy trend is a hot topic of attention from foreign media.
Singapore " United Morning Post " reported that the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee recently held a meeting to expand domestic demand and seek stability as the focus of economic work in the second half of the year, and proposed to strengthen cross-cycle adjustment of macro policies and make good connections to macro policies this year and next two years. This indicates that by the end of next year, China's macroeconomic policy will be stable and will not turn significantly.
report noted that the meeting proposed to start tapping China's domestic market potential from four aspects, including supporting the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, accelerating the integration of county and rural e-commerce systems and express logistics distribution systems, accelerating the construction of major engineering projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and guiding enterprises to increase investment in technological transformation. The newspaper quoted analysis as saying that it is expected that the focus of China's economic policy will shift from stimulating the total amount to boosting domestic demand in the second half of the year.
Reuters pointed out that the meeting required active fiscal policies to improve policy efficiency, indicating that the increase in fiscal policies in the second half of the year is expected; the description of monetary policy has not changed much, and it is expected to remain stable and neutral, and the help to small and medium-sized enterprises and difficult industries will be further increased. At the same time, the meeting pointed out the direction of future development and put forward overall requirements for supporting the accelerated development of new energy vehicles, orderly achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality, strengthening scientific and technological innovation to supplement and strengthen chains, adhering to openness, and promoting the "Belt and Road".
report quoted analysts as saying that the meeting emphasized the connection of policies this year and next year and the autonomy of macro-policy means that the decision-makers are more focused on the long term and have no particular concerns about China's economy. The focus is to stabilize economic recovery and solve the problem of imbalance, and will not be led by changes in external policy environment.
AP Associated Press said that the People's Bank of China lowered the bank reserve ratio in July, aiming to stimulate the economy by allowing more currency to flow . There are signs that China is ready to take more measures to accelerate the post-epidemic economic rebound.
has strong endogenous motivation
The current global epidemic is still evolving, and the external environment is becoming more complex and severe. Some foreign media are worried that China's economic growth may be subject to certain restrictions in the second half of the year. Reuters pointed out that China's economy has largely recovered from the damage caused by the epidemic, but manufacturers are struggling to cope with new challenges brought about by rising raw material prices, soaring logistics costs and global supply chain bottlenecks.
In this regard, China National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Liu Aihua recently said that although there are many external unstable and uncertain factors, and internal economic growth is unbalanced, based on the overall fundamental forecast, China's economy is expected to maintain a sustained and stable recovery trend in the second half of the year. Judging from the factors that affect the economic trend in the second half of the year, the factors that generally support the further recovery and further improvement of the economy are gradually accumulating and increasing: First, the endogenous driving force of the economy is gradually increasing; Second, the confidence of market entities is constantly increasing; Third, the global economy is currently continuing to recover, laying the foundation for the growth of foreign demand.
The newly released semi-annual report on China's economy has also made foreign media optimistic about the endogenous driving force of China's economy.
Bloomberg said that the second quarter data showed that China can easily achieve its annual growth target of more than 6% and continue to drive the global commodity and industrial products market to rise. The agency quoted analysts as saying that China's retail industry has accelerated and people's willingness to consume is surprising. The latest data shows that China's economy is gradually recovering to a "long-term average growth rate" and the overall growth prospects are still quite elastic.
" Wall Street Journal " pointed out that after basically controlling the domestic epidemic for more than a year, the Chinese economy has shown unusual resilience. China's industrial added value performance in the second quarter was once again stronger than expected, and consumption performance was stronger than expected after the lowering. People expect that domestic spending may play a greater role in maintaining economic growth momentum in the coming months.
AFP believes that although China's strong economic data can be attributed to a lower base of comparison caused by the epidemic last year, the data shows that the recovery is still continuing and there will be a broader rebound. According to the report, although China's leadership set a moderate growth target of more than 6% this year, analysts generally expect China's economic growth to be higher this year.
promotes world economic growth
"The momentum of China's economy rebounding from the COVID-19 epidemic has stabilized." " Washington Post " said that China's economy rebounded stably and was "single" among all major economies in the world.
"Russian newspaper " website also believes that global economic growth is mainly due to the strong recovery of a few major economies. China is one of the "reliable locomotives" leading the world's economic growth.
The June issue of Global Economic Outlook released by the World Bank predicts that China will become the main economy with the highest year-on-year economic growth rate in 2021. The report also said that China's contribution to global economic growth in 2021 is expected to exceed 1/4. Rui Ze, director of the China Bureau of the World Bank, emphasized the importance of China's domestic market in the post-epidemic period: "China's domestic market can not only become the engine of its own economic development, but also the engine of other countries' economic development."
In the first half of the year, while China's economy was stably strengthening, it firmly promoted a series of measures to expand opening up and took various positive measures to stabilize the basic foreign investment, achieving outstanding results in attracting foreign investment to a new high, and also allowing more foreign companies to continue to increase their investment in China.
Bloomberg quoted the "2021 Business Confidence Survey" report released by the European Chamber of Commerce in China, saying that "the resilience of the Chinese market provides European companies with much needed protection amid the COVID-19 pandemic storm." 60% of the companies surveyed plan to expand their business in China in 2021, up nearly 10 percentage points from last year.
Singapore's Straits Times reported that the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp decline in sales of Singaporean companies. Some companies were attracted by China's vast market and expanded their business to China, which was the first to restore the economy. This move has enabled many Singapore companies to recover quickly during the epidemic. According to reports, China's huge market and a recovery economy are the main reasons why many companies decide to take the first step towards China.
