In the past few days, Sino-US economic and trade negotiations have attracted much attention. If this suspended risk can be lifted, at least everyone can have a happy New Year. During the negotiations of
, the most noteworthy one was the RMB. rose continuously, rising by about 700 points in a week, breaking the 6.78 mark. not only lost all the money for shorting RMB, but analysts changed their words. It seems that this is related to the Fed's slowdown in interest rate hikes and the sharp drop in the US dollar index, but ultimately it depends on the balance of power between the fundamentals of the US economy and other economies, which is the core of the exchange rate issue.
A more fierce prediction is that 2019 is likely to become a turning point, and the strong dollar cycle that began in 2012 may reach the end of its strength.
Everyone knows that a strong dollar is a catastrophe for emerging countries. Many countries are looted in this cycle. If the strong dollar cycle ends, it will have an important impact on a series of asset prices, and many countries can also take a breath.
However, the RMB has risen sharply, and the accounts of export companies will be even more ugly. , and the solution to the exchange rate problem once and for all, can only rely on the RMB to continue to internationalize. The process of is destined to be constant struggles, and the currency war has been going on for decades and will continue.
To understand all this, you need to have enough understanding of the past and present of the RMB exchange rate. Let’s take a look!
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This article is from Damao Finance
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