is now in the "Golden September and Silver October". In the past, it has been the peak sales season for the real estate industry. However, the Chongqing home buying community where the No Samurai is located has no movement. Almost no one is willing to talk about which property price. In August, the community has been in full swing, asking each other about the value-added potential and purchase price of the property. Why did the people who intend to buy a house have such a big change in their mentality in just over a month?
is obvious. The cold weather in the entire property market has made many people feel chilled. In fact, not only Chongqing, but also in third- and fourth-tier cities are hard-hit areas. House prices in some cities can be said to be halved. Although housing prices in big cities are relatively stable at present, the news of falling housing prices is rumored, making it difficult for a number of urgent needs to do it easily.
Take Yongqing County, Hebei, which is close to Daxing, Beijing as an example. This small county town is close to Daxing Airport and is also a city around Beijing. In 2016 and 2017, the prices of some real estate projects were even hyped up to more than 30,000 yuan, but since then, the housing prices of Yongqing have fallen all the way. Recent statistics show that housing prices have fallen to around 7,700 yuan, and housing prices in many communities in the county have fallen to more than 6,000 yuan.
So will housing prices fall this year or will they continue to rise? You can analyze them from these three points.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, among the 70 cities in China in August this year, nearly half of the second-hand housing prices fell, and a total of 34 cities saw housing prices fall.
In fact, in the past four years, the number of second-hand housing cities in China has continued to increase, and housing prices in the new housing market have also shown a downward trend, with housing prices in 24 cities falling. It is not difficult to see from this data that the decline in domestic housing prices has become an inevitable trend.
Secondly, there are more than 10 cities in China that have issued "decline orders" . Some cities have restricted real estate companies from lowering housing prices through symposiums in order to stabilize the development of the domestic real estate market. Moreover, with the tightening of credit in my country, the working capital of real estate companies is stretched. In order to quickly recover funds, many real estate companies have greatly reduced their selling prices. Under the -like situation, the decline limit order has gradually appeared in third- and fourth-tier cities, which also means that the decline in housing prices has become a general trend.
Finally, there are many urban developers currently using various methods to reduce the price of sellers. For example, during this National Day holiday, many properties in Yibin have launched special price houses under the banner of festivals, with a discount of 1,000 yuan per square meter.
The continuous decline in housing prices has led to the depressed housing market in some cities, so that a large number of land auctions ended with failing to sell . However, for cities that rely on land finance , this is undoubtedly a bottom-up. In addition, if local housing prices are allowed to fall, it will also have an impact on the local financial industry, leading to bad debts in the banking industry. Therefore, some places have begun to actively carry out the " rescue " campaign.
Recently, Harbin has directly introduced 16 new measures, which have undoubtedly become the "life-saving straw" for local real estate companies. Among them, for real estate companies, Harbin clearly stipulates that as long as real estate companies with credit ratings meet the requirements of blue and green cards, they can apply for a commercial housing pre-sale license for by building by if they meet the relevant conditions. This means that real estate companies can mainly meet these conditions and can alleviate financial pressure through pre-sales.
For home purchase groups, Harbin extends the age limit of second-hand housing provident fund loan to 30 years. At the same time, various housing purchase subsidies will be distributed in one lump sum, among which full-time doctoral students and master students can receive 100,000 yuan and 50,000 yuan subsidies at one lump sum.
On the surface, Harbin’s rescue this time is mainly to help real estate companies lower the threshold. In fact, it is to promote real estate companies to quickly sell inventory and recover funds, and at the same time, it can also avoid the emergence of unfinished buildings.The issuance of housing purchase subsidies can not only help urgent needs buy a house as soon as possible, but also promote the growth of local real estate sales and drive developers to quickly recover money.
So for a group of waiters, will housing prices continue to fall next year? Is it necessary to buy a house now?
In this regard, Zhu Yunlai, a financial expert in my country, pointed out that the current housing prices are not reasonable. To return to normal prices, it is necessary to fall by 27% on the current basis, which means that the average price of houses nationwide is around 8,000 yuan to be considered a reasonable price.
Chief economist of China Securities Li Xunlei believes that the over-issuance of currencies in European and American countries may trigger a new wave of global financial risks. my country should prevent the "big ups and downs" of the real estate market, that is, the over-issuance of global currencies cannot cause domestic housing prices to continue to rise, nor can it be allowed to fall sharply, otherwise it will be under great pressure to the financial industry.
economist Ma Guangyuan believes that cities will differentiate in the future, and the overall decline in housing prices is already the general trend. Most cities will enter a state of stabilizing housing prices, but my country should be careful of housing prices falling rapidly.
However, the world is currently in a period of over-issuance of currency. In the future, the economy will shrink after the epidemic. European and American countries have stimulated industries and employment through quantitative easing, but it will have a significant impact on the global money supply.
In this regard, economist Ren Zeping pointed out in a column that it is recommended that the people should hold three major anti-inflation hard currency. The first one is the houses in the metropolitan area where population inflows, the second one is the supply of scarce precious metals, and the third one is the stocks of leading companies in the big track. For the country, real estate prices must also be stabilized.
