Author: Qiu Chongwei
Source: Chinese think tank official account
Since the start of the fight in February this year, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been fighting for more than 200 days. It is about to fight from one winter to another. Russia has not only failed to defeat Ukraine, but also a few days ago, Ukraine has begun a large-scale counterattack against the Russian army, and has seized some Russian-occupied cities. This plot is really shocking.
Yesterday Putin announced a local mobilization to recruit 300,000 reserves. Putin did this, either to prepare for a real killing, or the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was indeed in a difficult situation. If he did not increase his troops, it seemed that he would be unable to resist and would be embarrassed. But Putin is also in pain in his heart, and he is helpless and no one understands it!
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict at first, everyone thought it would be a brand new style of combat, and everyone thought it was a war without symmetry. The former super military powers were all powerful characters who could make the United States timid. In front of Russia, we never dared to say that we were the "second" of military strength.
However, the battle between Russia and Ukraine is getting worse and worse. Basically, what I see is the tank cannons of the last century. Unexpectedly, a large number of Russian tanks were destroyed or seized by Ukraine. Even Russia's most powerful cruiser "Moscow" was sunk. I really don't believe it. Is this Russia in our eyes?
Does Russia have no advanced weapons and equipment? It should be said that there are also some, such as 5 or 6 of its fifth-generation fighter jets, and some supersonic missiles such as "dagger" and "zircon" were fired, but they were just fired.
According to my judgment, it is not that Russia does not want to fight, but that there is not much storage in the arsenal and production cannot keep up. There is another one, just a little thing, if it is used all on Ukraine, if NATO directly sends troops to fight, then what will Russia do to resist the US military and NATO?
What other information weapons and equipment and smart weapons and equipment are almost gone, and there are not many drones. What's even more ridiculous is that it is said that Russia is still waiting for Iranian to support 100 drones. This is such a big joke. When did Iran’s drones be built very well? What's even more sad is that Russia is still looking forward to Iran's drones to help them.
This is just a process, it is just a phenomenon. Speaking of this is not to mock Russia and make fun of Putin, but to reflect on why Russia has fallen to this point from a strategic perspective. This is the point. The fundamental reason for this is that Russia's strategic planning over the past 20 years has made major mistakes from the beginning.
does not focus on the strategic focus of supporting the country's re-strength to the forefront of the world's scientific and technological development strategy. Semiconductors, chips, networks, intelligence, new materials, new energy, etc. are the strategic frontier technologies. Mastering these is the real mastery of the tricks to create wealth and the real mastery of the tough ones.
However, in recent years, Russia has focused on reliance on energy resources, which is still a great idea. When oil prices sell well, Russia GDP has gone up, and Putin can be very awesome internationally. When there is money in the bag, the money is not invested in the cutting-edge strategic technology in time. I am just happy to use energy as " nuclear weapon ", which is very awesome. The final result of
is that it is difficult to create any new major projects, equipment, and technology except for taking advantage of some old capitals left over from the former Soviet Union.
I remember very clearly that before, Russia's Grenas navigation system was pretty good. At that time, we were all blank in China. We only launched two experimental stars around 2000.But later, even if Russia sold oil well, it would not pay for it and develop these high defense equipment. Until now, it is estimated that Russia's Grenas navigation system is like Russian tanks. It used to be like what it is and what it is now.
. Our Beidou navigation system is already the third generation, and has achieved global deployment. Moreover, our space station is also fully built. It is estimated that in a few years, Russia's navigation and positioning will depend entirely on our Beidou .
From this perspective, Putin's bitterness in his heart is largely the bitterness he planted in his heart, in addition to scolding the Americans for being too domineering, to a large extent, the bitterness he planted himself.
What we really need to understand is:
① Now, especially in the future, it is impossible for a country to realize its ambition to make a strong country by relying solely on "large land and vast resources". The strength of the future country is not "sowed" and "dig" on the land, but by "thinking" the mind and "creating" the factory.
② Use the things you "seed" and "digged" to fight with others, and you can only engage in a "intergenerational game" with other countries and then suffer a "dimensionality reduction strike"!
③There is a result, and this truly reflects the strategic vision, strategic planning and strategic layout that a country's highest leadership should embody from the very beginning.
④ The most important sentence, although very cold-blooded, is true and realistic - if there is a strategic mistake, courage and passion cannot be made up for it! It is also difficult to change the overall situation by fighting desperately and sacrificing!
