Last night to today (July 5), the newborn typhoon Maria has increased rapidly. Within 21 hours, it helicoptered from the tropical low pressure stage 1 typhoon level 2, and the maximum wind force near the center was upgraded from level 7 to level 12. The latest satellite and radar images can be seen that Maria has a pinhole-small but very stable typhoon eye , with strong core convection. It will also continue to strengthen rapidly, and it is possible to strengthen it to super typhoon within 24 hours. There is no doubt that Maria will become the most explosive and fastest-intensifying typhoon so far in 2018.
00 radar map and cloud map animation of Typhoon Maria on the evening of July 5th. The base map comes from Guam radar and SSD
Maria's explosion and strength is not surprising. As Zhongqiai said in its previous article, its innate structure is very compact and exquisite, and its "assistance" is numerous and strong. Before July 8, it also had almost inexhaustible marine energy. In comparison, its path is a bit complicated: should it land in our country, or turn north on the coast of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai? It's still not certain.
European numerical set of judgment on Maria's path, Zhongqiai Ai made
based on ECMWF data, but compared with yesterday (July 4), supercomputers adjusted Maria's path in the west and south. Among them, the sets of European numerical values were adjusted from the northeasternest part of Zhejiang to central Zhejiang on average; the sets of American numerical values were adjusted from the login. Major meteorological bureaus also followed the West to adjust the path. For example, in the typhoon forecast of Central Meteorological Observatory , Maria is likely to enter East China Sea south of Okinawa.
European and American values on July 4 and July 5, and it can be seen that there are West and South tunes. Zhongqiai made
supercalculation based on ECMWF and GFS data. The reason for the southern adjustment is that the subtropical high pressure in the north of Typhoon Maria is very strong. Subtropical high pressure is the guide of the typhoon and the Nanbatian above the typhoon. If the sub-high is strong, the typhoon can only be suppressed by it; if the sub-high is weak, the typhoon will not be suppressed, but will look for various opportunities to break through the sub-high and turn north and turn east. Judging from the live performance on July 5, the deputy high is stronger than expected, and Typhoon Maria is even more west than expected.
000 07/5th daytime Central Meteorological Observatory Maria typhoon path comparison with the actual path, it can be seen that the actual path is westward
Of course, friends who know about typhoons also know that Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong and other places have very high latitudes and are not sub-high territories. When typhoons land in East China, they need sub-high typhoons to strongly control Jiangsu, Shanghai and even Shandong. Therefore, the situation of typhoons landing in East China is often extremely subtle. Maria is about to become a super typhoon, and her volume will be rolling bigger and bigger in the "warm pool" of Northwest Pacific . It is hard to say which one it is better than the deputy high school in the next few days. It still has the possibility of turning over the deputy high school and moving northward, so there is no need to be too nervous now.
0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 Friends from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong, Fujian and Taiwan should pay close attention to this typhoon, especially after the typhoon fell west on July 8, every step of its step is very critical. The weather in East China will be completely different ones a little west or a little north. Of course, when Maria approached, the impact on South China, especially Guangdong was generally stable, that is, sinking airflow and hot weather.
