Currently, the LPR interest rate for more than five years has dropped to 4.3%, and Central Bank allows major banks to lower the LPR by 20 basis points, so Currently, the mortgage interest rate in many places can reach 4.1%.
Judging from the actual trend of mortgage interest rates in the past few decades, the mortgage interest rate of 4.1% is actually at the second lowest level in history.
historical lowest interest rate level occurred in 2016. At that time, many banks could have a 20% discount on the basis of benchmark interest rate , which is equivalent to the minimum interest rate only needs about 3.92%.
Because the mortgage interest rate was very low at that time, it led to the rapid development of the property market. From 2016 to 2020, the real estate market performance in many places was quite hot, and the real estate market transactions were also very strong.
This kind of stimulating the property market by lowering interest rates can be said to have an immediate effect, because the interest rate has dropped, but the cost of buying a house has dropped.
So when the current real estate market performance is not ideal, many places have also begun to use this trick, which is to lower mortgage interest rates.
Although according to the central bank's policy, the minimum mortgage interest rate can only be 4.1%, in fact, many places may achieve lower interest rates in the actual implementation process.
For example, Qingyuan launched interest rate preferential policies, which only requires a minimum of 3.7%.
According to Qingyuan Daily report, according to the information released by the Qingyuan Central Branch of the People's Bank of China, will temporarily lower the interest rate limit for commercial personal housing loans for the first home from October 1, 2022 to December 31, 2022, Qingyuan will phase down the interest rate of commercial personal housing loans for the first home, and the mortgage interest rate can be reduced by 60 basis points based on the LPR.
is calculated based on the current LPR 4.3%, which means that the minimum interest rate for a personal first-home mortgage can be as low as 3.7%, which has been reduced to a level similar to the provident fund interest rate.
And compared with the same period last year, the interest rate has dropped significantly.
In March this year, the interest rate for first-home homes in Qingyuan was generally between 5.5% and 5.6%, and the interest rate for first-home homes in 2021 may even reach more than 6%.
This means that the interest rate of Qingyuan’s first home is more than two percentage points lower than the same period last year.
Of course, in addition to Qingyuan's phased reduction of mortgage interest rates, many cities have actually begun to lower mortgage interest rates.
The main basis for lowering mortgage interest rates in various places is that on September 29, 2022, the policy of phased relaxing the interest rate lower limit of first-home loans in some cities was released by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission.
In accordance with the requirements of the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, For cities where the sales prices of newly built commercial housing have been declining month-on-month and year-on-year in June-August 2022, the lower limit of commercial personal housing loan interest rates for the first housing units will be phased before the end of 2022.
City governments that meet the above conditions may independently decide to maintain, lower or cancel the interest rate limit for commercial personal housing loans for local first-home housing in accordance with changes in the local real estate market situation and regulatory requirements. The People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will send agencies to guide the provincial market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism to cooperate in the implementation.
After this policy came out, many cities immediately began to lower the interest rates for first-home homes. In addition to Qingyuan, the mortgage interest rates in other cities in Guangdong Province have also been lowered to varying degrees.
Among them, the lower limit of the first home interest rate of Yangjiang can be reduced by 40 basis points at a minimum, that is, the lowest mortgage rate is 3.9%. The markets of Jiangmen , Yunfu , Zhanjiang and other cities have even directly cancelled the interest rate lower limit, which means that banks can decide the interest rate based on the actual situation of customers.
In addition to these cities in Guangdong, I believe that cities that meet the conditions may continue to lower mortgage interest rates in the future. According to the requirements of the central bank, there are a total of 23 cities that meet the conditions.
includes 8 second-tier cities including Harbin, Lanzhou, Wuhan, Dalian, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Kunming and Guiyang, as well as 15 third-tier cities including Quanzhou , Wenzhou , Luzhou , Yueyang , Yichang , Beihai , Dali, Qinhuangdao , Zhanjiang, Baotou , Anqing , Jining , Changde , Xiangyang and Guilin.
If the interest rate for first-home homes in these cities continues to be lowered in the future, then everyone's home purchase cost will be further reduced.
Currently, the lowest mortgage interest rate in most cities is about 4%. However, if these cities continue to lower mortgage interest rates in the future, the lowest possible rate may be below 3.7% or even below 3.5%.
These interest rates have dropped by at least two percentage points compared with the same period last year. The decline is very obvious, and the corresponding decline in home purchase costs will also be very obvious. Let’s give a simple example.
According to the mortgage interest rates in various places last year, the first home in many places reached more than 5.5%. We calculate at 5.5%. If you apply for a loan of 1 million equal principal and interest 30-year term, then the monthly payment will reach 5,677.89 yuan, and the total interest will reach 1.044 million yuan.
. After the mortgage interest rate dropped by 3.7%, the monthly payment directly dropped to 4602.83 yuan, and the total interest cost was only 657,000 yuan.
is equivalent to the monthly payment reduction of more than 1,000 yuan per month after the interest rate drops, and the total interest cost is nearly 400,000 yuan less. This cost reduction is very obvious.
Of course, some friends may consider that the current mortgage interest rates are priced according to LPR, and are basically repriced once a year. Even if the mortgage interest rate is low now, it does not mean that the mortgage interest rate in the future will be lower.
In fact, from the perspective of the overall modern development situation, as the economic growth slows down in the future, the growth of market demand financing will also slow down. With the continuous increase in residents' deposits, banks' funds will not be as tight as before, and the corresponding bank's overall mortgage interest rate will not be too high.
In addition, even if the LPR rises in the future, the final customer pricing is based on LPR and the nearest point. According to the current interest rate of 3.7%, the interest rate difference reaches -60 basis points. The near value of
will not change. Even if the LPR rises to 5% in the future, everyone's actual interest rate will be only 4.4%.
So overall, if the mortgage interest rate drops to 3.7%, or even lower, if everyone buys a house worth 1 million, they can save at least 100,000 or even more interest. For those who are in urgent need, it is still relatively cost-effective to buy a house at this time.
