htmlOn July 18, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce and 11 other departments issued a notice on "Several Measures to Accelerate the Distribution of Second-hand Cars and Promote the Upgrading of Automobile Consumption" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures"), clarifying that will accelerate the elimination and update of passenger cars and the circulation of used cars, and will provide certain subsidies to some car buyers and dealers who meet the conditions.
This measure mainly proposes 13 specific measures from three aspects: facilitating second-hand car transactions, accelerating second-hand car circulation, and expanding automobile supply and consumption.
Among them, the most eye-catching thing is that the Measures propose: Based on the restricted entry of the original National One and National Two gasoline vehicles and National III diesel vehicles, will expand the scope of restricted vehicles to National III gasoline vehicles in a timely manner.
Optimize the stock structure and promote automobile consumption
Whether it is promoting the development of the used car market or studying the restriction of the National III gasoline vehicles, it is not difficult to see that the purpose of the "Measures" is to promote consumption in the automobile market by optimizing the stock market.
Readers who pay attention to previous articles of Gang Ge know that under the influence of factors such as the epidemic, the automobile market is facing unprecedented challenges, including shortage of parts supply and lack of confidence in automobile consumers.
In order to promote the stable development of the automobile market, my country has introduced a number of policies, such as the purchase tax halving policy, local policies to promote automobile consumption , etc.
Data released by the State Taxation Bureau shows that since the implementation of the passenger car halving purchase tax policy, has reduced the total car purchase tax by 7.1 billion yuan nationwide and reduced the vehicle purchase tax by 1.097 million.
Although the purchase tax halving policy has successfully stimulated consumption in the automobile market, the policy only lasts until the end of the year, so a plan is needed to maintain both production and sales in the automobile market.
In fact, this kind of solution has appeared not long ago. The Ministry of Commerce, together with National Development and Reform Commission, and 17 other departments, put forward two major principles: support the large-scale development of second-hand car circulation and cancel unreasonable restrictions on the development of second-hand car sales.
After linking all policies related to the automobile industry since May this year, it can be found that they have almost covered raw materials, production and manufacturing, sales, supporting service facilities, etc.
As for why we should promote the development of the used car market, Gang Ge believes that the main reason is that the current automobile market has leap from the incremental era to the stock era. Only by solving the existing market can we better promote the development of the overall auto market.
According to data released by the Automobile Dealers Association, in June, the transaction volume of used cars with a service life of 3-6 years was the largest, accounting for 41.5%, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%; the proportion of models with service life of 3 years was 31.5%, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. The growth in used car market transactions undoubtedly shows that the stock market still has great potential.
However, in the "Measures" issued by relevant departments in Beijing, is it really necessary for to include restricted National III gasoline vehicles in the research scope? The issue of still needs to be discussed from multiple dimensions such as the safety and inventory of the National III gasoline vehicles in Beijing.
National III gasoline vehicle may face elimination
Some people should know that the main production time range of "National III gasoline vehicle" is from 2007 to 2011. This means that the earliest National III gasoline car in was only used for about 15 years, and the latest National III gasoline car was only driven for about 10 years.
Although the production time of the "National III gasoline vehicle" is only about 5 years, those 5 years happened to be the stage of the booming growth of the Chinese automobile market. Data shows that the sales volumes of from 2007 to 2011 were: 8.76 million, 9.38 million, 13.64 million, 18.06 million, and 18.5 million respectively.
can be inferred based on the sales changes from 2007 to 2011 that National III gasoline vehicles still have a high stock in the current automobile market. Under such a background, once the relevant departments in Beijing expand the scope of restricted vehicles to National III gasoline vehicles, the wide range of influence is self-evident and will inevitably involve a large number of Beijing car owners.
According to the data disclosed by the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment, In 2020, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing reached 6.4 million, of which China's third-emission standard models were about 233,000, accounting for about 4.4% of the gasoline vehicle ownership.
However, the General Office of the Beijing Municipal Government officially issued the "Beijing Plan for Further Promoting the Elimination and Update of High-Emission Old Vehicles (2020-2021)" on March 27, 2020. The "Plan" provides subsidies to the owners of National III gasoline vehicles, so some owners will choose to replace their vehicles.
According to relevant data released by the Beijing Green Exchange, as of late October 2021, a total of 86,000 "National III" car owners have eliminated their motor vehicles and applied for subsidies. Under such circumstances, is expected to be more than 100,000 owners of National III gasoline vehicles in Beijing.
Judging from the current comments and feedback on major social platforms, most National III gasoline car owners do not want to replace existing private cars, and they do not want to be restricted from traffic. After all, traffic restrictions will have a great impact on the daily travel of car owners. At the same time, if the owner changes his car in advance due to restrictions on travel, there will be new pressure.
According to this trend, studying the restriction on traffic in the National III gasoline vehicle may be just the beginning. The future situation of the National III gasoline vehicle may be the same as that of the National I and National II gasoline vehicles, and will face elimination soon.
Research should focus on "civilians"
Although the National III gasoline vehicle is eliminated will eventually be put on the agenda, Brother Gang always believes that the relevant departments should start from the basic situation of citizens.
The "Measures" mentioned that for individual consumers who have been scrapped or transferred from the city to register in their name for more than one year from June 1 to December 31, 2022, purchase new new energy passenger cars from the city's automobile sales companies and register in the city, will provide a subsidy of no more than 10,000 yuan per unit.
Many people believe that Beijing hopes to promote the penetration rate of new energy vehicles by restricting the traffic of National III gasoline vehicles. However, even under the existing subsidies, replacing vehicles is still a great burden for many car owners.
In fact, before the release of the "Measures", many Beijing car owners also hoped to let the National V gasoline vehicles enter Beijing.
If the "Measures" can lift the migration of used cars in "National V", it will undoubtedly give the owners of National III gasoline vehicles a transition period. However, with the continuous decline in the status of National III gasoline vehicles, it indicates that the difficulty of lifting the restrictions on the National V gasoline vehicles will be infinitely amplified.
Summary
Although the National III gasoline vehicles are still in the research stage, based on the previous situation in Shanghai and other regions, it is expected that the possibility of the implementation of this policy will be greatly improved, which undoubtedly increases the pressure for Beijing car owners with over 100,000. In this regard, Brother Gang still hopes that the relevant departments can fully consider the personal interests of the car owner during the research stage, listen to the car owner's voice, and give car owner more help in the process of replacing the vehicle.
