was attacked on Crimea Bridge . After Russia bombed Ukraine vigorously for two days, it returned to low-intensity bombing. This large-scale bombing of Russia obviously did not hurt Ukraine, because the Ukrainian army still maintained a military strike against the Russian army in Donbass and Khlsong .
Some people even joked that such a large bombing of the Russian army was " missile demonstration ", and the damage to Ukraine's military targets was very limited. So what is the truth?
first. Judging from the bombing of Russia this time, Russia used fighter , drones, bomber and land-based missiles, but obviously, this bombing operation has more strategic bomber than before. This may be because the number of road-based ballistic missiles is insufficient, and the strategic bomber's air-launched cruise missile needs to make up for it. After all, air-launched cruise missiles are expensive. The bombing stopped in two days. In addition to shocking , Kiev and the West, the Russian Aerospace Army cannot afford it.
From the perspective of the strike effect, the Russian army seems to be more focused on targets in central and western Ukraine, while the Ukrainian army on the front lines of Khlsong and Donbass was very limited, and most of the attacks were fixed targets. This shows that there must be substantial harm to Ukraine, especially the attack on energy infrastructure and military base . However, for the Ukrainian army on the front line that can be varied at any time, and for the front line mobile ammunition database , the Russian army does not have a good solution. It is impossible to blindly bombard the missile with millions of dollars.
This undoubtedly reveals a problem. It still requires drones, long-range artillery and fighter jets to execute when fighting the Ukrainian army scattered on the frontline. The main purpose of killing weapons is to focus on dealing with fixed targets, such as the caliber cruise missiles and Kh-101, which are mostly fixed targets.
Second, Russia launched a two-day high-intensity bombing, which caused panic to the Kiev authorities to a certain extent. Before this, the Russian army suffered consecutive defeats in Kharkov and Donetsk , which made the Kiev authorities full of confidence. After the attack on the Crimea Bridge, Putin decisively launched an important bombing of Ukraine's entire territory, demonstrating the Russian army's control over Ukraine's air supremacy and demonstrating the ability to strike remotely.
Third, the blow to Ukrainian logistics supply system will to a certain extent relieve the pressure on the Russian army's frontline and increase the resistance to Ukrainian supply. Increase the social costs of Ukraine and indirectly make the West pay a greater price to aid Ukraine. The two-day bombing has achieved certain substantial results, but it has not had much impact on changing the situation of the Donbass front and the Khlsson front at present.
Although the Russian army's bombing of Ukraine made the Ukrainian authorities seem very passive, Putin has to face three reality.
First, it is almost impossible for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to end within the year. Although Russia has included the four eastern Ukrainian states, these four states may not be completely controlled by Russia now. Moreover, there is almost no hope of breaking this situation this year. Although the Russian army mobilized 300,000 reserves, it is still unknown whether these recruits are used for attack or defense. If the casualties further expand, the pressure on the Russian authorities will become increasingly greater.
Second, although Russia has long-range strike capabilities, its ammunition inventory obviously cannot support the Russian army's long-term large-scale bombing operations. Russia still does not have this capability if it wants to demilitarize Ukraine in one fell swoop. Judging from the Russian bombing operation against Ukraine this time, Ukraine not only has a considerable number of air defense missiles, but also a large number of fighter jets. What does this mean? This shows that Russia's goal of demilitarization of Ukraine was not completed at all.
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Third, after the Russian natural gas transmission pipeline is damaged, Russia's revenue in the natural gas field will definitely decrease. Moreover, as some Western countries set price limits on Russian oil, it will be difficult for Russia's crude oil to be sold internationally, which will affect Russia's energy income.
Although Russia's energy income has been rising all the way after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it is obvious that the United States cannot sit idly by and acts of sabotage are still indispensable. It depends on whether the EU will use the Nord Stream 2 B pipeline to receive Russian natural gas in winter. If the EU does not enable it, 2023 will face severe tests for Russia.
At the same time, Putin also ushered in 4 bad news.
First news: 10,000 new recruits who were trained in the UK will be returning to Ukraine for combat
In July, Ukraine sent 10,000 new recruits to the UK for training. According to the information currently disclosed, these 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers will return to Ukraine soon. Once Ukrainian soldiers who had been trained in the UK for three months were put into the battlefield, it would be an unpredictable threat to the Russian army.
Because these 10,000 soldiers are likely to be equipped with Western equipment, they may adopt the NATO standard in individual soldiers' equipment and information communication. If you receive training on some Western equipment, this means that these people may also operate many of the heavy weapons from NATO.
Second news: Canada provides a new round of aid to Ukraine
Canada announced a $47 million package of aid to Ukraine, including winter clothing and equipment, shells and communications technology. Obviously, NATO countries are already preparing to think of logistics support for the Ukrainian army in winter. This will allow the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to develop into a long-term trend, rather than degrading the situation.
Third news: Netherlands Defense Minister announced that it will provide Ukraine with an air defense missile worth 15 million euros
This is also the current unified position of NATO, providing more air defense missile assistance to strengthen Ukraine's air defense capabilities. For Russia, once the advanced air defense system enters Ukraine, it means that fighters like the Su-24 and Su-25 will face a higher risk of being shot down when performing missions.
The fourth news: French President Macron announced the provision of offensive weapons to Ukraine
France promised to provide Ukraine with three upgraded M270 multi-barrel rocket launcher systems, plus the 6 Caesar self-propelled howitzers supported by France to the Ukrainian army, France has now obviously strengthened its support for Ukraine. Earlier, Germany also provided Ukraine with air defense missile systems.
In summary, neither Russia nor NATO's actual performance showed a concession or easing the situation, which means that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will not only continue to fight, but will also be likely to fight for a long time. This is not a good thing for all parties involved, and for the world. In 2023, if the Russian-Ukraine conflict continues, global economic pressure will become increasingly greater.
