text | Zhang Youhua
A friend sent a letter to Chen Shizhong, questioning my statement. My friend believes that the DPP is in the basic foundation of Taipei City, and the DPP raises the party to save one person, and Huang Shanshan attacks the wings and digs out the votes of Jiang Wan'an, which leads to the DPP being killed by Jiang Wan'an in the end, repeating Ding Shouzhong's mistakes. Therefore, no matter how hard Jiang Wan'an works to fight the election, Chen Shizhong may defeat Jiang Wan'an with just a few thousand votes.
Although this view makes some sense, as far as Taipei mayor's election is concerned, friends ignore Ke Wenzhe and Ding Shouzhong are two strong players and one weak player Yao Wenzhi. Since the DPP Yao Wenzhi ran for election, the polls have never improved and were eventually abandoned, with a vote rate of only 16%, so Yao's votes flowed to Ko Wen-je, making Ko win.
From Ke Dingyao's "three-legged governor", looking at the triangular changes in Jiang Wan'an, Huang Shanshan and Chen Shizhong this time, it is not difficult to find that these three election trends are one strong against two weak, and Chen Huang's votes are connected. Although they are better than Jiang Wan'an in total, the prerequisite for the abandonment effect is that the DPP and the People's Party must cooperate. However, from Chen Shizhong's fierce attack on Ke Wen-je and the DPP's fierce attack on Gao Hongan, the two parties have reached a point of inseparable relationship, and it is impossible to discuss cooperation against Jiang Wanan. How to implement abandoning small and protecting large is a problem.
Reviewing the triangular changes of Chen Shui-bian, Zhao Shaokang and Huang Dazhou in 1994, the key reason why Chen Shui-bian won was that Zhao and Huang won the same votes, and they could not abandon the insurance and allowed Chen Shui-bian to benefit. 's situation back then was quite similar to that of Jiang Chen and Huang in the face of the election. From this we learned that since Chen Shizhong and Huang Shanshan had no room for cooperation, they could only climb the mountain and work hard. The one who gained the profit was Jiang Wan'an.
Watch the Taipei mayoral election, but the elements are easy to ignore, which is how to explain the basic market problem. Jiang Wan'an's poll shows that he has broken through the basic platform of the Kuomintang and moved towards the middle vote. Chen Shizhong's basic market cannot reflect the advantages of the green camp. Huang Shanshan's basic foundation exceeded the People's Party's own expectations. This is why the DPP attacked Ko Wen-je hard. To understand the changes in the Taipei mayor's election, we know that the principle of abandoning the protection is to play with the two strong and one weak, rather than two weak and one strong.
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