"Although Lin Zhijian was replaced due to the plagiarism of the paper, Zheng Yunpeng and Zheng Wencan work together to defend this seat for the DPP. People's Party candidate Lai Xiangling has long been dead, and there is no chance at all. The key factors that affect the victory and loss next depend on how many votes Zheng Baoqing , which split from the green camp, can get." Regarding the Taoyuan mayor election, Chen Songshan, a well-known Taiwan current affairs commentator and Chen Shui-bian's office, made the above judgment in an interview with the Straits Guide reporter in Taiwan.
is only more than 40 days away from the voting day on November 26. According to the latest poll in October's "Convergence Poll" show that the Kuomintang's nomination of Zhang Shanzheng currently receives 34.6% of Taoyuan citizens' support, temporarily leading 27.7% of the Democratic Progressive Party Zheng Yunpeng and 6.9 percentage points ahead. Yahoo's online poll, as of 9 pm on October 6, Zhang Shanzheng significantly led Zheng Yunpeng's 14.1%, Zheng Baoqing's 5.4%, and Lai Xiangling's 4.1%. However, the poll previously disclosed by the DPP believes that Zheng Yunpeng is slightly ahead of Zhang Shanzheng.
In this regard, Chen Songshan said that polls have "organizational effects", and the design and political positions of each poll are different, and the results may be different. However, he analyzed several relatively authoritative polls and believed that Zheng Yunpeng and Zhang Shanzheng's support was "very close" and both of them had a chance, but neither of them was fully sure of each other.
"Zhang Shanzheng is a scholar. Since he was nominated, the poll support level has been very stable, and it will not be reduced. The DPP experienced the 'change of 'change of toughness'. Zheng Yunpeng was indeed behind Zhang Shanzheng when he first came on stage, but he slowly caught up. The current gap with Zhang Shanzheng is within the range of error." Chen Songshan said without hesitation that "change of toughness" has indeed had an impact on the DPP's election situation in Taoyuan City, but because the current mayor Zheng Wencan was very satisfied with the 8-year administration and the local connections were also well managed, the basic foundation of the green camp has expanded greatly. "Zheng Yunpeng does not have much strength, and basically relies on Zheng Wencan to help him."
Chen Songshan said that with the personality of Zhang Shanzheng, it is difficult to increase the support level, which is also the anxiety of the Kuomintang and Zhu Lilun . The People's Party has limited resources, and the Party Chairman Ke Wen-je will invest limited resources into the possible winning mayor candidate Gao Hongan and Taipei mayor candidate Huang Shanshan. Lai Xiangling, who has no money and no one, has no chance at all and has died long ago.
"And Zheng Baoqing, who ran from the Democratic Progressive Party, ran from Hakka . Hakka is very united. Moreover, he has been deeply engaged in Taoyuan since his non-party period and has had considerable strength and connections in the local area, so how many votes he can pull will become the key minority that affects the outcome of the blue and green." Chen Songshan analyzed that if Zheng Baoqing got the votes to more than 15%, it is hard to say whether these votes will attract Zhang Shanzheng or share Zheng Yunpeng's votes.
Recently, voices about "blue and white" have been heard in Taipei's political arena. For example, the People's Party may sacrifice Huang Shanshan in Taipei to support Jiang Wan'an in exchange for the Kuomintang's support of Gao Hongan in Hsinchu City. In this regard, Chen Songshan believes that this possibility does not exist at all and is publicly denied by the People's Party. "I think that whether it is in Taipei City or Hsinchu City, even 'abandoned' will not happen, because everyone still has a chance and there is no particularly weak side."
(Wu Shenglin, reporter of the Straits Guide in Taiwan)
