High-tech field is the main battlefield for the United States to encircle China.
From the early technology blocked , to the chip embargo in recent years, etc., regardless of the United States' attitude towards China, the action of to encircle China in the field of high-tech has never changed.
(Chips are representatives of the field of high-tech)
Just a few days ago, South Korean media said that the United States is trying to form an "Chip Quad Alliance" to further encircle and block China.
What is the origin of this "chip four-party alliance"? Why does the United States feel that this alliance can be used to encircle China? Can this US plan be realized?
What are the four sides of the "four sides"?
The four parties of the "chip four-party alliance" are , the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan . Why do Americans choose these two countries and one region and form a "chip four-party alliance" themselves?
First of all, the "chip four-party alliance" , which is established by the United States, is not only to encircle and block China on chips, but its scope includes the entire semiconductor industry .
And the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, is an important existence in the field of semiconductor , which can be said to be basically the essence of most of the world's semiconductor industry.
(The United States has accumulated a lot of accumulation in the semiconductor industry)
For example, the United States, as the leader and pioneer of the semiconductor industry for a long time, The United States has considerable technological advantages under the accumulation of the semiconductor industry .
is a well-known chip field, although the United States is no longer the world's leading technology level in chip manufacturing.
However, in the design process, the United States is still the world's leading level .
At the same time, most of them use industrial software in the chip and semiconductor industries, and the United States' R&D capabilities are also at the world's leading level.
Therefore, the United States has a strong control over the semiconductor industry and is a top player in the semiconductor industry.
(TSMC is the leader in chip manufacturing now)
We mentioned above that the United States is no longer the leader in chip manufacturing, because currently has the leader in chip manufacturing, which belongs to TSMC in Taiwan.
As a company specializing in chip manufacturing, TSMC is also at the world's leading level in chip manufacturing technology.
TSMC successfully conquered the mass production of 5nm process chip , which is the highest level of process technology among the current mass production chips in the world.
More than half of the chips in the world are supplied by TSMC , and chips are a very important product in the semiconductor industry, so TSMC also has its own voice in the semiconductor industry.
At present, TSMC is conquering the mass production technology of 3nm process chips . If successfully conquer, TSMC will further increase its voice.
and Another company that implements 5nm process chips is South Korea's Samsung Electronics . Unlike TSMC, which specializes in chips, Samsung Electronics has two other products.
(Samsung Electronics is a veteran semiconductor company)
One of them is electronic screen . Samsung has a very deep foundation in the development of electronic screens for smart devices and is also the leader in this industry.
Another one is semiconductor memory . This is the product that is almost as important as chips in the semiconductor industry . It has a wide range of applications and has a deep impact on the semiconductor industry.
Samsung Electronics is one of the world's top R&D and manufacturer , , in the field of semiconductor memory, and can be said to be the leader in the field of semiconductor memory.
Although Japan's reputation in the semiconductor industry is not as famous as TSMC, Intel , and Samsung, its impact is not small at all.
(although it is not very famous, Japan is also quite influential in the semiconductor industry)
semiconductor equipment, Japan has Tokyo Electronics ; semiconductor material , one of silicon wafer , Japan has Xinyue Chemical, SUMCO; in terms of semiconductor target materials, Japan has Japanese mineral metal .
It can be said that in many fields of the semiconductor industry, , especially the semiconductor raw materials field , Japan has a great influence.
"Alliance"? ——What are the possible attitudes of all parties?
The influence of the four members of the "Chip Four-Party Alliance" seems to be real. So can the United States gather these four members to form the "Chip Four-Party Alliance"?
This depends on the four members ’s attitude towards China and how deep the relationship with the United States is .
Taiwan is likely to respond to the US suggestion, and may even be the most active of the four members .
(Taiwan authorities often make small moves of "Taiwan independence")
is nothing more. Taiwan is now deeply involved in the political manipulation of "green camp" . seems very active in any action against mainland China .
For Taiwan independence elements in Taiwan, Every point of strength in mainland China is stronger, they will be more afraid of one point .
. Any attempt made by the United States against China is like a straw for the fallen victim in the eyes of Taiwan independence elements. Whether it is useful or not, it will be hard to catch it first.
Judging from the previous situation, Taiwan has always been the most active member of the United States' actions against China .
Out of Taiwan independence elements' own political plots, they will even respond to the suggestions of Americans regardless of the normal operation of TSMC.
The situation in Japan is similar to that in Taiwan. is also a Japanese politician with his own political plots , so he is more cooperative with actions against China.
(This Japanese government is not friendly to China)
Since Kishida Fumio served as the Prime Minister of Japan, Japan's attitude towards China has returned to its old appearance, and has been constantly touching China's bottom line on issues such as Diaoyu Islands , Taiwan, etc.
This behavior is undoubtedly a serious damage to the sensitive Sino-Japanese relations, and it also forces China to change its attitude towards Japan in order to deal with these provocative behaviors.
After all, can sit down and talk quietly, so that you can talk about in a good mood. If we always jump around there, then we don’t need to give us much face.
It can be said that if the United States promotes the formation of a "chip four-party alliance", Taiwan and Japan will be the most active members, and they will even be more active than the initiator of the United States.
As the initiator of this "chip four-party alliance", the United States is not so active in promoting this alliance, or has not reached an agreement on the pace of .
(Many American semiconductor companies have a large scale in China)
As the saying goes, killing enemies with one thousand and losing 800, China has a huge semiconductor market. blockade of China's semiconductor field will inevitably affect the interests of many American companies in China .
Due to the large scale of the Chinese market and the development level of China's domestic semiconductor industry has not been high for a long time, the scale of related business of American semiconductor companies in China is very large.
blockade of China's semiconductor industry will inevitably harm the interests of these companies, so these companies will more or less oppose this "chip four-party alliance".
How to balance these domestic opposition forces is a factor that the United States must consider in the process of promoting the "Chip Four-Party Alliance".
Moreover, if the US political circles have no unified opinions on promoting the "Chip Four-Party Alliance" and are determined to do it, will likely end up in the end under the influence of these domestic opposition forces.
(Wall Street is not a solid piece)
As for the last member, South Korea, its attitude is a bit subtle.
South Korea’s Samsung Group has an unparalleled influence in South Korea, so The attitude of the South Korean government is difficult to decide Samsung Group’s choice . Moreover, the South Korean government itself is not as active as Taiwan in its attitude towards China, nor does it have direct territorial disputes with China like Japan.
Considering that Samsung Group itself has a lot of commercial transactions in the semiconductor industry in China , if the Americans carry out blockade, Samsung Group will suffer a lot of economic losses.
This is difficult for Samsung Group, which aims to make profits as its main purpose, , so South Korea or Samsung Group will not be very enthusiastic about participating in this matter .
However, Samsung Electronics did not decide its own choice .
Korean
1987, in order to enter the LCD panel market, Samsung Electronics began to develop "counter-cyclical strategy" with its strong capital and strength. The "counter-cyclical strategy" of
is simply understood as Samsung Electronics is planning to open a hole in the LCD panel market by spending money , thereby entering this emerging market.
is obvious. will cost a lot of money to do this operation. From 1991 to 1994, Samsung Electronics lost more than $100 million each year.
That was in the 1990s, when the US dollar was still very valuable, unlike now when the US dollar depreciated every day.
(The 1990s was a high-speed period for the development of LCD panels)
Originally, according to Samsung Electronics' plan, this loss was the price that must be paid to enter the market. is also within the acceptable range for Samsung Electronics, which has a big business and big business .
But who would have thought that when Samsung Electronics had not successfully entered the market, From 1997 to 1998, the Asian financial crisis came .
Samsung Electronics , which had lost money for several years in a row, was extremely embarrassed by the sudden financial crisis , and was once on the verge of bankruptcy. The situation of Samsung Group is almost the same.
or even, The economic situation in South Korea was extremely unoptimistic at this time, and it was facing unprecedented economic pressure
At this time, International Monetary Fund , that is, IMF, extended a "helping hand" to South Korea . The IMF has provided a total of $57 billion in aid loans to South Korea.
(IMF is an international fund organization led by the United States)
This money has allowed the South Korean government and Samsung Group to overcome the financial crisis, , but the IMF's "aid" is definitely not without cost.
This price is a shame for South Korea: opens equity and financial markets to international capital such as the United States and .
Why did Koreans later turn this day into a "national humiliation day"? Because since then, all the chaebols in South Korea and even the South Korean government have become tools controlled by Wall Street capital .
Take Samsung Electronics as an example. Its 5% common stock is in the hands of foreign capital, and preferred stock , which distributes profits, has 85% in the hands of foreign capital.
It can be said that under the modern financial system, Samsung Electronics has completely lost its autonomy , and often cannot decide what it wants to do.
(South Korea has largely lost its national independence)
In the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the entire South Korea was the loser, and the biggest winner was the IMF. The IMF paid a total of US$57 billion in South Korea that year.
But in just 2018, Samsung Electronics alone brought more than US$36 billion in profits .
So, although the South Korean government or Samsung Group may not be tempted by the "chip four-party alliance" proposed by the United States, or even object to it.
But If the United States is unified and it is determined to promote the establishment of the "Chip Four-Party Alliance", then even if South Korea is unwilling to do so, it will not have the right to choose.
determines that the South Korean government chose not the South Korean government, but the United States Wall Street .
How can China break the deadlock?
How should China break the deadlock in the United States’ behavior of promoting the establishment of a “chip four-party alliance”?
The most fundamental solution is to master the technology in your own hands , which is the most thorough solution to deal with technology blockade.
Although the current development level of China's semiconductor industry is still relatively low, it is a certain distance from the world's advanced level.
But As China overall layout of the semiconductor industry from the national strategic level, this situation is gradually changing.
(China's semiconductor industry has received full support from the country)
For example, the foundry field of wafer , which is commonly referred to as the chip manufacturing field. SMIC has achieved mass production of 14nm process in not long ago, and has exceeded 7nm process technology , but it has not yet started mass production.
Although this is still a bit far from the world's advanced level of mass production of 5nm process led by TSMC, considers that 14nm process chips have a great need for use in the upcoming Internet of Things era .
It can be expected that SMIC will usher in a broad market in the future , thereby achieving huge profits.
and profits will be able to further support the development of chip manufacturing technology , and accelerate the progress of mass production exceeding 7nm or even 5nm.
chip manufacturing field is just a microcosm of the development of China's semiconductor industry.
With the support of national policies, in most semiconductor industries, Chinese companies have solved the problem and have begun to enter into mid-range and even high-end technology fields.
(In the field of semiconductor memory, China has caught up with South Korea's pace)
As long as maintains national strategic determination and maintains support for the semiconductor industry. Relying on China's vast market demand , the development prospects of China's semiconductor industry are bright.
In addition to directly dealing with the "Chip Four-Party Alliance" at the technical level, China can also internalize the "Chip Four-Party Alliance" in diplomatic and economic terms.
Among the results of our previous analysis of the four members, South Korea has no autonomy, and Taiwan is already determined to deal with mainland China , so these two can be ignored for the time being.
Japan is relatively more autonomous, and also has close economic exchanges with China . In addition, the attitude of the Japanese government has not been firm and it is easy to sway.
(More economic dialogue can be carried out between China and Japan)
So Japan is a breakthrough point. If reduces Japan's enthusiasm for participating in the "Chip Four-Party Alliance" and even prevents it from participating in the , then the blockade effect of the "Chip Four-Party Alliance" will be greatly reduced.
Of course, is more direct to differentiating the internal forces of the United States .
There are huge trade exchanges between China and the United States, so as we mentioned earlier, there are already voices of opposition to this blockade in the United States.
If you can make good use of these opposition voices , then at least you can slow down the establishment of the "Chip Four-Party Alliance" and buy time for the development of China's semiconductor industry.
(China and the United States should talk more about cooperation rather than confrontation)
can even increase these opposition voices, or use economic means to allow more American forces to join the opposition. makes the US government face many resistances to promote the "Chip Quad Alliance" .
If the US government does not force the domestic opposition pressure and also promotes the "Chip Four-Party Alliance", it is very likely that it will be left alone.
However, this method is not completely reliable. The most reliable method of is to develop China's own semiconductor industry. This is the fundamental solution .
