According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 13th local time, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in September rose 0.4% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment, 0.3% higher than the expected value; the CPI in September rose 8.2% year-on-year, with an expected value of 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.3%.
After excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the US core CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in September, 0.4% higher than the expected value, and the same as the previous value; the core CPI rose 6.6% year-on-year in September, the largest year-on-year increase since August 1982, and 6.3% higher than the previous value.
Fed 11 hike rate 75 basis points is almost a foregone conclusion
According to the CME Group's interest rate observation tool (FedWatch Tool), after the CPI data was released, the probability of the Fed hike rate 75 basis points for the fourth consecutive month next month rose to 91.4%, and there is even an 8.6% chance of raising interest rates by 100 basis points.
CICC research report believes that although energy and second-hand car prices have fallen, service inflation has further risen and rents are still rising, making core inflation strong. Inflation exceeds expectations means that a 75 basis point rate hike in November is almost a foregone conclusion, and the market has also begun to consider the possibility of another 75 basis point rate hike in December. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cannot slow down. As for the rate cut, it is far away at present.
CITIC Securities believes that the upward trend of core inflation at full speed shows that the key issue of current US inflation is still the strong stickiness of demand-driven core inflation. If US demand does not cool down in this round, inflation will be unlikely to fall significantly. The current Fed's monetary policy is difficult to turn, and the probability of continuing to raise interest rates in November is extremely high, and the end point of this round of interest rate hikes may be around 5%.
China Securities analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike at 75 basis points in November may be more certain. If inflation remains stubborn, there may be an unprecedented situation of 75 basis points hikes for five consecutive times. By then, the interest rate level will reach a high of 4.5%, but the probability of this situation will not be very high.
core inflation is likely to be close to the peak, and the turning point may be in Q4
Zhongtai Securities believes that according to the existing forecast, the rent sub-item among the core services will peak and fall in the near-month period, and labor market demand has also begun to show a downward trend. Coupled with the high base effect , inflation decline in the fourth quarter is expected to accelerate, and the Federal Reserve's policy orientation may still be hawks first and then doves.
China Merchants Securities believes that the current cooling of the US real estate market and strong timeliness preparation indicators Zillow Rental index fell year-on-year, and the high reading of this item will not restrict the Federal Reserve. The interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgage loans in the United States has reached 6.7%, and the year-on-year growth rate of existing home sales in August is -19.87%. It is expected that the inflection point of this inflation sub-item is Q4. Commodities (excluding food and energy) were 6.7% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from August. Among them, the price growth rate of durable goods such as furniture and appliances and used cars cooled significantly in September. The working hours of the private non-agricultural sector have fallen since this year, and the hourly wages in Q3 have also declined year-on-year, and the pressure on service inflation is also expected to ease.
ignores the inflation outbreak, US stocks rebounded strongly, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fluctuated 1,500 points in the day
US core inflation hit a 40-year high, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to continue aggressive interest rate hikes. US stocks opened low and closed high on Thursday, with major stock indexes strongly counterattacking after falling to a two-year low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fluctuated 1,500 points in the day, and the S&P 500 index hit the largest single-day amplitude since March 2020, with the three major stock indexes all exceeding 5% in the whole day.
As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 827.87 points, and rose 2.83% to 30038.72 points; the S&P 500 index closed higher by 92.88 points, or 2.60%, or 3669.91 points; the Nasdaq fell more than 3% at the beginning of the session, and finally closed at 10649.15 points, or 232.05 points, or 2.23%. What impact does
have on A shares ?
HSBC Jinxin Fund macro and strategist Shen Chao analyzed that the Fed's interest rate hike has three main impacts on A-shares. The first is that hawkish interest rate hikes have led to a decline in US stocks, and global risk asset preferences have fallen, and A-shares may also be affected by sentiment. The second is that interest rate hikes have led to further strengthening of the US dollar, and the RMB is facing pressure of depreciation, which may lead to pressure on capital outflows. Third, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will accelerate the decline in global demand, and China's foreign demand is facing pressure to decline, which may affect the performance of some industries.
Cinda Securities believes that the Fed rate hike has always been an important factor affecting A-shares. The Fed rate hike in the fourth quarter will enter the second half, which is based on the perspective of inflation. The US inflation base rose in the fourth quarter, and the upward momentum of US inflation is still declining. We judge that the rate of US inflation falling back in the fourth quarter may accelerate. From this perspective, the US interest rate hike may narrow, so the external pressure it brings to A-shares is actually alleviated. Moreover, in recent times, the yield on US bonds has reflected the hawkish guidance of the Federal Reserve, so the moment when interest rate hikes are most under pressure on asset allocation has probably passed.
Qianhai Open Source Fund Chief Economist Yang Delong said that relatively speaking, the policy environment faced by my country's central bank is that the inflation level is not high, and economic growth has slowed down. Therefore, my country's central bank did not follow the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike to reduce the balance sheet hike , but instead took measures to lower the LPR loan market interest rate and deposit interest rate, while maintaining a reasonable abundance of economic liquidity by increasing credit supply. In the medium and long term, China's core assets have already had relatively high investment attractiveness, and foreign capital is still mainly based on net inflows. In the fourth quarter, is expected to usher in a resonant recovery of valuation and profit, thus bringing a recovery-rising market. On the one hand, a package of policies to stabilize the economy will be gradually implemented, which will boost domestic demand. As domestic demand gradually recovers, investment and consumption are expected to rebound. In addition, the marginal impact of the Fed's interest rate hike and the global economic slowdown has decreased. If the US CPI can see a significant decline in the fourth quarter, investors may expect the Fed to stop hikes next year, and its impact on the market will be further reduced.
