In the past year, due to the influence of chip shortage, fabs have been continuously raising prices, and then they have really made a lot of money, and their revenue and profits have been setting new highs.
But by 2022, especially after the second quarter, the chip industry entered a downward trend. Institutions continued to warn that the sharp drop might begin, but wafer manufacturers have been reluctant to admit it.
For example, SMIC indicates that it is optimistic about the wafer foundry industry and will continue to expand production, without any concerns about overcapacity. There is also TSMC, which continues to respond to rumors of overcapacity through price increases, saying that it never worrys about production capacity and needs to expand production of 50% mature processes.
However, the data eventually betrayed TSMC. Recently, TSMC released its September data, with revenue in September of 2208.248 billion NT$3, but a month-on-month decline of 4.5%.
This also means continuous growth and finally ushered in a reversal. For this reason, TSMC's stock price performed weakly on the day of the release of the financial statements, closing at 438 yuan and falling 13 yuan. TSMC ADR suffered a heavy blow on US stock on the same day, closing with a sharp drop of 6.19%.
Why revenue declined? Of course, the reason is very simple, that is, TSMC's capacity utilization rate has decreased, which has led to a decline in revenue.
. Previously, UBS Securities said that TSMC's 7nm process may only remain in capacity utilization in the first half of next year, while the overall capacity utilization rate may fall between 85% and 89%, which is more than 90% lower than the previous expectations.
is obvious. Whether TSMC admits it or not, it is an irreversible fact that overcapacity, capacity utilization rate declines, and the chip industry has entered a downward cycle, TSMC cannot avoid it, which is an unchangeable fact.
In addition, we can also see another data from TSMC. At its highest point last year, TSMC's market value exceeded US$700 billion, making it the world's first chip stock.
But now it is only more than 320 billion US dollars, which is more than half of the decline, and at least 2.5 trillion yuan has fallen, which is more than the market value of Kweichow Moutai .
At present, the performance of AMD, Nvidia, intel, Qualcomm , etc. is not very good. Mobile Soc, CPU , GPU, etc. are all cutting orders. I believe that TSMC's life will not be so good in the future. If the price increases are not as high as that of TSMC, it will not be able to recover revenue. TSMC's winter is finally here. Although it is not as cold as other companies, it has indeed come and cannot be stopped.
