Everyone knows that this round of property market regulation began in September 2016 and has been going on for more than 4 years. In the past four years, we have experienced the most severe and intensive regulatory policies in history. Public data shows that from 2017 to 2019, the number of national real estate regulation was 250, 450, and 620, respectively, and the density and intensity of regulation have been increasing year by year. Since 2020, the country has repeatedly reiterated its long-term positioning of housing for living, not for speculation, and there is still no sign of loosening regulation.
Under the strict, intensive and lasting housing market regulation policies, the country's real estate market has bid farewell to the general increase stage and entered a stage of differentiation. Moreover, housing prices in many cities have even experienced substantial declines. Of course, if you consider it from the geographical level, you will find that compared with the southern cities where the real estate market is ready to move from time to time, the real estate market in the north seems to be ushering in "collective fall". Is there your hometown here? Next, let’s take a look.
Speaking of the northern real estate market, we have to mention the urban belt around the Beijing area. Data shows that compared with 2017, housing prices in cities such as Yanjiao , Dachang, Xianghe , Gu'an , Yongqing , Bazhou , Zhuozhou and other cities in the Beijing-wide urban belt have almost fallen by 40%-70%. It is not an exaggeration to say that it is a halving or a sharp drop. Taking Yanjiao, which is more familiar to home buyers, as an example, the average house price in 2017 was around 38,000 yuan, but in 2020 it has fallen to around 18,000 yuan, down 20,000 yuan in three years. Suppose that a 100-square-meter house was purchased at that time, and now it has lost 2 million yuan.
In addition to the urban belt around the Beijing area, Tianjin has also received widespread attention due to the decline in housing prices in recent times. According to China News Service, an owner purchased a second-hand house in Dongli District in July 2016, with a total house payment of 1.3 million yuan, and rose to 2.2 million yuan in 2017. However, due to the introduction of strict regulatory policies, housing prices have entered a price reduction channel, and have now fallen back to 1.4 million, beginning to approach the price at the time of buying. In response, the owner said that if factors such as rising prices and mortgage interest are taken into account, there is still a possibility of losses.
As Shandong, which ranks third in the country in GDP and ranked first in the northern region, the "gemini" cities in the province - Jinan and Qingdao , are currently experiencing a decline in housing prices. In the past one or two years, second-hand houses in Jinan have set a record of 11 consecutive months of decline, while second-hand houses in Qingdao have set a record of 16 consecutive months of decline. Taking Jinan as an example, since the second half of 2018, the real estate market began to show a downward trend. Due to cash flow pressure, in the second half of 2019, developers began to reduce prices and promote prices nakedly. A well-known market even fell from 17,000 yuan to 13,000 yuan, down 4,000 yuan, causing heated discussion. In the past year, the original unit price of unfinished areas of Xueshan and Tangye has been raised to 11,000 yuan in two hot residential areas, Xueshan and Tangye, and the developer has been fighting a price war without any ambiguity.
In the process of adjusting the real estate market, in order to cope with the pressure of continuous downward housing prices, there were even news that developers formed an alliance to "not lower prices". Public reports show that at the Henan Real Estate Industry Chamber of Commerce held a while ago, some real estate companies suggested that developers should not take the lead in reducing prices. In my opinion, the reason why developers jointly form an alliance to "not lower prices" is ultimately due to the sluggish local real estate market. However, if you choose not to lower the price, the buyer and seller can only continue to be in a stalemate. In the end, real estate companies with tight funds will always take the lead in breaking the deadlock and choose to lower the price to sell houses. According to relevant data, currently, housing prices in Zhengzhou have generally fallen by about 15%, and another city in Henan, Kaifeng, has also generally lowered them by around 1,000 yuan.
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 cities in October 2020, showing that the housing prices in 24 cities of second-hand housing fell back a year ago. In addition to the cities such as Tianjin, Jinan, Qingdao, and Zhengzhou mentioned above, key northern cities such as Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan and Yantai are among them. Based on this, it is not difficult to see that any home buyer who buys at a high point will have to bear a lot of book losses as housing prices continue to adjust in the past three or four years.
Of course, the above examples are all cities with relatively good economic development levels and relatively high urban ranks. For small and medium-sized cities with relatively low urban ranks and continuous population outflow, the real estate market may be even more sluggish. Some cities can even buy a house for tens of thousands of yuan. According to the First Financial News, a total of 14 cities including Hegang, Shuangyashan , Shizuishan , Qitaihe, Zhangye, Shuozhou , Haixi, Bozhou , Jiamusi, Fuxin , Jixi, Tieling , Hami, Zhongwei , all of which are lower than 4,000 yuan. It is not difficult to see that all these cities are located in the northern region.
Taking Tieling, Liaoning as an example, everyone knows that school district housing is expensive, but according to the 21st Century Business Herald, in a prefecture-level city like Tieling, Liaoning, you can buy a 34-square-meter school district housing with a full payment of 38,000 yuan. Coincidentally, in another representative city with low housing prices, school district housing can also be found in Fuxin City, Liaoning, which has a low housing price. It is almost beyond the imagination of many home buyers.
According to the above, as real estate regulation enters the deep water zone, the northern real estate market is showing an overall downturn and collective loss. Netizens' opinions on the reasons for this phenomenon are also different. Some netizens said that for a long time, the north has been dominated by heavy industry and the south has been dominated by light industry. The urban pattern has always been strong in the north and weak in the south. However, with the development of the economy and society, especially the service industry and Internet technology industry, the economic activity of southern cities has increased rapidly and has begun to gradually lead the country, resulting in the inability to retain talents in the north and the number of cities with net outflows of population increases.
Of course, some netizens also said that the income level in the north is relatively low, but the housing price level has risen sharply in recent years, resulting in income growth not keeping up with the increase in housing prices and residents' purchasing power has been overdrawn.
In my opinion, no matter what the reason is, one thing is completely certain. Since a house is a commodity, it should conform to the value law of the commodity. When the price of an asset deviates from its basic value, the real estate bubble will gradually form. Once the bubble bursts, everyone knows what this means, so the price naturally needs to gradually pull back.
Wu Xiaoling
After more than four years of regulation, the real estate industry, which once sang all the way, has reached a critical crossroads. We may have been used to the continuous rise in housing prices and the steady profit of buying a house without losing money. However, under the long-term positioning of "housing for living, not speculation", we must gradually change the concept of housing speculation in the future and gradually adapt to the direction of constantly adjusting housing prices, thereby prompting houses to return to the essential attributes of living. In response, Wang Zhaoxing, former vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that in the future, macro-prudent management will be strengthened to prevent the impact of the formation of the real estate bubble on the national economy. Coincidentally, Wu Xiaoling, former deputy governor of the central bank, directly admitted: There are not many days of carnival in the bubble, and preparing for the tide after the retreat is a reality that every country and everyone must face.
So, has the housing prices in your city fallen or rise? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area for discussion.
