Real estate is a very special industry. It does not belong to the financial industry, but it is closely related to finance. In the past 20 years, the financial attributes of real estate have become stronger and stronger, making the whole people crazy join in, and gradually lost their original residential attributes.
Houses are commodities, which were originally mainly to meet living needs. But few commodity has a large increase. Take Shenzhen as an example. The average price of 22000 was about 5,500 yuan, and the current average price is about 65,000 yuan. If calculated based on a set of 100 square meters, it has appreciated by 5.95 million in the past 20 years. With such appreciation space, it is difficult for rich people to buy more sets.
Since the house has financial attributes, it is necessary to use to leverage . For ordinary people, leverage is still within a reasonable range, but for real estate companies, financial leverage is really used to the extreme.
"High leverage, high turnover, high debt" is the development model of real estate. Due to considerable profits, the leverage of real estate companies is getting higher and higher, and the debt is getting bigger and bigger, and the financial risks of the entire industry are getting higher and higher.
The unlimited rise in housing prices has made real estate speculators, real estate companies and banks make a lot of money, but it is becoming increasingly difficult for people with urgent needs to buy a house. If it continues to develop for a long time, this bubble will inevitably become bigger and bigger. Therefore, at the end of 2020, relevant departments introduced the "three red lines" policy for financing.
As soon as this policy was released, a large number of real estate companies such as Evergrande , Rongchuang , Kaisa, etc. showed their true colors. Behind the rapid growth, the debt is so high.
In fact, real estate companies use to leverage financing to raise development itself is fine, but because funds come too easily, most real estate companies have lost their hearts and started to expand on a large scale. It is not enough to do real estate alone, but they also have to build cars and do football and other side businesses, spending money crazy.
Evergrande is a typical negative example. Boss Xu is really ambitious and has created the eight major King Kong businesses, spending money like flowing water. invested more than 50 billion in one car manufacturing. In the end, the total debt was as high as 2 trillion yuan, but there was not much money in the account, and the hole was very large.
Like Vanke is a good student. He has always been very calm. He is always vigilant in the face of radical expansion of his peers and various temptations from the outside world. Always maintain a sense of crisis, dare not expand blindly, and focus on the real estate industry.
From the above two examples, so many real estate companies are dying because the industry is going wrong and blinded by ambitions. After the launch of the "Three Red Lines" policy, Sun Hongbin, , was still full of confidence, saying that other real estate companies would storm, and Sunac would not, so it was still expanding rapidly last year.
In the past two years, the real estate industry has indeed calmed down, and both development investment amount, transaction volume and loan balance have all dropped significantly. But only by "scraping the bones to heal the wounds" can the entire industry continue to develop healthily.
On September 23, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a meeting, indicating that the momentum of real estate financialization and bubble formation has been substantially reversed. This shows that the risks of real estate are gradually being cleared and a safe landing can be achieved.
In addition, two points were mentioned at the meeting. One is that reasonably meets the financing needs of the real estate market, and the other is to safely deal with the risks of some leading real estate companies such as Evergrande.
sends a signal at the first point, and the financing for real estate companies may be moderately expanded in the future. This is a good opportunity for some real estate companies in trouble. As long as the money is in place, they should be able to overcome the difficulties.
The second point mentioned that leading real estate companies such as Evergrande should handle their risks safely. means that these real estate companies are listed separately because they have too much debt.
So, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission sends a positive signal, does Evergrande still have a chance to turn around?
Some time ago, " Wang Zhigang Studio " founder Wang Zhigang said in the live broadcast room of "Oriental Selection" that Evergrande will definitely be done. In my opinion, Evergrande has no chance.
First of all, Evergrande’s debt hole is already difficult to fill. No one wants to have a debt of up to 2 trillion yuan, and there is no need to be this sucker.
Secondly, Evergrande’s credit has collapsed, and it is difficult to make a deal except for the existing house. 's sales in the first half of this year were only 12.26 billion yuan, which is not enough for the profits of this sales to be 2 trillion yuan in debt. Without , Evergrande will not have the chance to turn around.
For Evergrande's current situation, it is difficult to continue to obtain financing, so it basically has no chance, and debt restructuring will be its end.
As for expecting Evergrande Auto to sell well and save Evergrande, that is a fantasy. Whether it can sell well is still a question mark. Even if the sales are good, it is impossible to expect it to turn the market when selling one car in the entire industry loses money.
Xu Jiayin has made such an active transformation in car manufacturing, perhaps in order to retain its shares in Evergrande Auto after the debt restructuring and the shares are cleared, in order to make a comeback.
