This year, the leverage ratio of residents' home purchase loans exceeded 50%, which was only 1/3 in 2013, and it exceeded the peak in the United States in 2007. The monthly payment ratio in first-tier cities has soared to more than 80%.
Xu Qian/Wen
2016, the real estate market was spent in the hustle and bustle.
This year, the real estate market has the largest transaction volume, the most land kings, and the highest leverage ratio.
This year, the national land auction amount and commercial housing sales amount both hit record highs. With the sales of first-hand houses alone, the country has achieved a historical volume of more than 10 trillion yuan, and has spawned a group of real estate giants with sales of over 100 billion yuan. The total price and unit price of land kings in the year are unprecedented. This year, the leverage ratio of residents' home purchase loans exceeded 50%, which was only one-third in 2013, and exceeded the US peak in 2007. The monthly payment ratio in first-tier cities has soared to more than 80%.
This unprecedented hustle and bustle in the real estate market began in the late 2015 and exploded in early 2016, and spread in waves from first-tier cities to surrounding and second-tier cities.
However, the situation of serious inventory surplus is still accumulated in some third-tier cities, especially in the fourth-tier real estate market, which is still a large proportion of buildings that cannot be sold.
Therefore, in 2016, the two main lines of "stimulation and inhibition" in the real estate industry ran through the whole process, and the stimulus policies of destocking in third- and fourth-tier real estate markets across the country were parallel to the policies of controlling housing prices in first- and second-tier hot cities.
, especially in some hot cities, the plot has been interpreted with "twist" twists and turns, from relaxing purchase and loan restrictions, to restarting purchase and loan restrictions, and until the overall suppression of speculative investment demand. The market has also been stepped on from the crazy state of "flying all the way through the fast lane", and has been stepped on and braked, returning to calmness and waiting.
"The house is for living, not for speculation." As we are about to bid farewell to 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference gave the latest statement on the real estate market. It is also clear that the comprehensive use of finance, land, finance and taxation, investment, legislation and other means will accelerate the research and establishment of basic systems and long-term mechanisms that conform to national conditions and adapt to market laws, not only curbs the real estate bubble, but also prevents major ups and downs. Under the outline of
, the plot of this round of property market surge has come to an end. In 2017, the property market may also be difficult to reverse again.
Yang
Reduce down payment, tax burden, loosen credit, and comprehensive inventory reduction in the real estate market
This year, the national land auction amount and commercial housing sales amount both hit record highs. With the sales of first-hand houses alone, the country has achieved a historical volume of more than 10 trillion yuan, and has spawned a group of real estate giants with sales of over 100 billion yuan. The total price and unit price of land kings in the year are unprecedented. This year, the leverage ratio of residents' home purchase loans exceeded 50%, which was only one-third in 2013, and exceeded the US peak in 2007. The monthly payment ratio in first-tier cities has soared to more than 80%.
The central government officially determined the "destocking" strategy of the real estate market began at the end of 2015. Since then, more than 30 provinces and cities and more than 130 cities have quickly introduced new inventory destocking policies in various places.
On December 12, 2015, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that as of the end of November 2015, the area for sale of commercial housing nationwide reached 696 million square meters, a record high. Among them, second- and third-tier cities have become the "hard-hit areas" with high real estate inventory.
Therefore, on December 14, 2015, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee officially proposed to resolve real estate inventory, promote housing system reform based on meeting new citizens by accelerating the urbanization of migrant workers, expand effective demand, and stabilize the real estate market. Since November 2015, the central government has emphasized "destocking" many times, sending a strong policy signal.
destocking has become the main tone of real estate market regulation in 2016. Especially in 2016, waves of new policies to destock in the real estate market are coming one after another. Among them, the biggest driving force on the property market is the loosening of mortgage policies.
On February 2, 2016, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued new mortgage policies to reduce the minimum down payment ratio of first-home and second-home commercial loans in non-purchase-restricted cities. Among them, the down payment ratio of first-home houses was reduced to 20%, and the down payment ratio of second-home houses was reduced to 30%. On February 17, the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to raise the deposit interest rate of employees' housing provident fund account to a unified implementation at the one-year fixed deposit benchmark interest rate.On February 19, the Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly issued a document to adjust the standards for collecting house transaction deed tax and business tax.
Since 2015, the central bank has cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratios six times, causing the average interest rate for housing loans to continue to decline. According to statistics from Rong360, at the end of the first quarter of 2016, the average interest rate for first-homes in the country was 4.54%, a record low. At the end of the first quarter of 2016, 76.98% of banks provided preferential interest rates. From the perspective of interest rate level, the average interest rate for first-tier homes in first-tier cities at the end of the first quarter of 2016 is 4.27%, equivalent to 8.7% of the benchmark interest rate; the average interest rate for first-tier homes in second-tier cities is 4.45%, equivalent to 9.7% of the benchmark interest rate; the average interest rate for first-tier homes in third-tier cities is 4.63%, equivalent to 9.5% of the benchmark interest rate. Data from the central bank showed that the proportion of bank mortgage loan balances to total loan balances continued to rise at the end of the first quarter of 2016, from 15.1% at the end of 2015 to 15.4% at the end of the first quarter of 2016.
The first quarter of 2016 also became a window period for governments across the country to intensively introduce new policies on real estate destocking. Following the central government, more than 30 provinces and cities have successively introduced real estate market stimulus policies, and the scale of loosening is larger and wider. It is mainly divided into five categories: provident fund leverage becomes an important tool; farmers are encouraged to buy houses in cities, such as giving monetary rewards to farmers who return homesteads; repurchase commercial housing as affordable housing; reduce or even suspend land supply; most cities reduce taxes and fees and provide monetary subsidies to home buyers. Stimulated by the destocking of
, the national commercial housing sales area showed a blowout volatility and growth process. From January to April 2016, the year-on-year growth rate of the sales area of newly built commercial housing reached 38.3%, creating a peak since the beginning of 2015.
turns to
House prices and land prices soar, leverage is too high, the central government first proposed to curb the asset bubble
Financial statistics in the first half of 2016 showed that the balance of narrow currency (M1) was 44.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.6% year-on-year, while (M2) was 149.05 trillion yuan, an increase of only 11.8% year-on-year. M1 and M2 scissor gap has reached its highest value since 2010. M1 has continued to grow rapidly since October 2015. "This shows that companies are waiting for investment by holding coins, and a large amount of money flows to companies, but companies have not found a suitable investment direction, so they keep a large amount of money in their current deposit accounts." Sheng Songcheng, director of the Investigation and Statistics Department of the Central Bank, analyzed.
Financial statistics for the first half of 2016 showed that the balance of narrow currency (M1) was 44.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.6% year-on-year, while the balance of (M2) was 149.05 trillion yuan, an increase of only 11.8% year-on-year. The M1 and M2 scissors gap has reached its highest value since 2010. M1 has continued to grow rapidly since October 2015. "This shows that companies are waiting for investment by holding coins, and a large amount of money flows to companies, but companies have not found a suitable investment direction, so they keep a large amount of money in their current deposit accounts." Sheng Songcheng, director of the Investigation and Statistics Department of the Central Bank, analyzed.
Under the asset shortage, funds continue to flow to real estate, having a crowding out effect on private investment. At the same time, the leverage ratio of residents' home purchases soared. According to statistics from Haitong Securities Research Institute, the average monthly increase in residential mortgages soared from 69.3 billion yuan in 2011 to 393.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2016, a new record. According to statistics from the central bank, the proportion of new loans for residents' home purchases increased from 17% in January 2016 to 97% in July 2016. In the first seven months of 2016, the average monthly personal medium- and long-term housing loans were close to 400 billion yuan. In 2011, the average monthly increase in medium- and long-term housing loans for residents was only 69.3 billion yuan.
On July 26, 2016, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to study the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year. For the first time, it proposed to "suppress the asset bubble", "to guide the reasonable growth of monetary credit and social financing, and strive to clear the channels for monetary policy transmission", reiterated the destocking of stocks to make up for shortcomings, curb asset bubbles, and optimize the credit structure, revealing the decision-maker's turnaround thinking on the real estate market.
During this period, off-market allocations such as down payment loans were also severely cracked down. In the "Opinions on Strengthening the Management of Real Estate Agency and Promoting the Healthy Development of the Industry" issued by the seven ministries and commissions, regarding the issue of down payment loans, the seven ministries and commissions stated that they shall not provide or cooperate with other institutions to provide illegal and irregular financial products and services such as down payment loans, and shall not charge financial institutions or charge rebates and other fees in disguise. This is the first time in the official document that down payment loans have been listed as "illegal and illegal financial products".
However, these tightening policies in the real estate market have not stopped the crazy real estate market and prefectures.
In August 2016, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country, the prices of first-hand and second-hand houses in first-tier and second-tier hot cities soared, with prices increasing by 1.3% month-on-month, the highest month-on-month increase since May 2010, that is, the highest growth in the past 76 months. In September 2016, 64 land transactions were intensively sold in the national land market, creating a commanding height for the year.
suppression
In the fourth quarter of 2016, the land king was fully launched
As of the end of November 2016, a total of 318 transactions were sold nationwide. There are many cities with an average premium rate of land kings exceeding 100%. Even the third- and fourth-tier cities of Dongguan , Dongguan has created 10 land kings this year, with an average premium rate of 455%. The most controversial measure for land market regulation is the circuit breaker mechanism , and cities such as Suzhou , Nanjing, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Qingdao and other cities have all launched land circuit breaker mechanisms.
From mid-to-late September to early October 2016, the property market ushered in the most stringent regulation storm in history. The "9.30 New Policy" can be called the watershed in the real estate market in 2016. The main tone of regulation before this was to lower the reserve requirement ratio, interest rate, tax and down payment, which promoted transactions; and since then, the tone of property market regulation has changed to purchase restrictions, land and loan restrictions, suppressing housing prices. After this watershed, the property market has gradually become calm.
On the evening of September 30, 2016, Beijing, Suzhou and Tianjin successively issued new policies on real estate market regulation. Among them, Beijing and Tianjin mainly implemented regional purchase restrictions and differentiated credit policies, while Suzhou mainly issued "price limit" policies. Beijing's "9.30 New Policy" is known as the strictest housing market regulation policy in history. Among them, the down payment ratio for purchasing the first ordinary self-occupied house will be increased to no less than 35%. For resident families who own one house, if they apply for a commercial personal housing loan to improve their living conditions, the down payment ratio will not be less than 50% regardless of whether they have or not their loan records; if they purchase non-ordinary self-occupied houses, the down payment ratio will not be less than 70%.
In the interpretation of the policy party, the "9.30 New Policy" is issued in a concentrated manner to implement the national management requirements for the classification and regulation of the real estate market and the implementation of policies based on the city, adjust the market supply and demand structure, and promote the balance of market supply and demand, so as to combine the actual situation in the region.
In November, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Xi'an, Nanjing and Hefei also once again increased their investment in real estate market regulation policies. On November 28, Shanghai also announced further tightening housing credit and implementing "recognition of housing and loan" for the recognition of first homes. On the same day, Tianjin also upgraded its mortgage regulation policy. Wuhan and Zhengzhou have upgraded the purchase restrictions.
This round of real estate market regulation started at the end of September. More than 25 cities have introduced more than 50 real estate market regulation measures, mainly involving purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, price restrictions, and money restrictions.
Among them, purchase restrictions and loan restrictions appear the most frequently. The down payment ratio for first-home homes in most cities has increased to 30%, the down payment ratio for second-home homes has increased to 40% to 50%, and the issuance of third- or above housing loans has been suspended. The loan restrictions in some cities are becoming increasingly strict, especially in hot first- and second-tier cities. The down payment ratio for second-home units in Nanjing and Suzhou can reach 80%. In addition, cities such as Chengdu, , Huizhou, , limit housing prices through direct intervention in the pre-sale certificate approval process, while cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen strictly control the source of funds for real estate companies to acquire land.
The land market is also crazy. This trend of land kings originated in first-tier cities and then quickly spread to second-tier and third-tier cities. According to statistics from CRIC Research Center, as of the end of November 2016, a total of 318 land kings sold in the country were sold in a unit price and a total price. There are many cities with an average premium rate of land kings exceeding 100%. Even Dongguan, a third- and fourth-tier city, has created 10 land kings this year, with an average premium rate of 455%. The most controversial measure for land market regulation is the circuit breaker mechanism. Suzhou, Nanjing, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Qingdao and other cities have all launched land circuit breaker mechanisms.
Under this round of strict regulation, the real estate market and prefectures in hot cities have gradually returned to rationality and calmness from panic and crazy.However, according to the analysis of the "China Housing Development Report" of the Institute of Finance and Economics Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, there are certain shortcomings in the control policy and system: First, the incentive mechanism for housing speculation has not changed; Second, the internal government regulation mechanism needs to be improved; Third, the land policy is not strong enough; Fourth, the financial inventory has not been carried out; Fifth, the corresponding fiscal and tax regulation policies have not been issued; Sixth, the purchase restriction policy has limited effect.
Therefore, it is urgent to build a deeper long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of real estate.
