The above analysis shows that the United States has included 33 Chinese companies and institutions on the "entity list" is actually a comprehensive suppression of my country's "Made in China 2025", intending to eliminate all Chinese high-tech enterprises in the bud.
One of the most important sectors in the high-tech industry is semiconductor and chip industry. The next move of the United States is to comprehensively restrict and ban the semiconductor industry in my country. The blockade of Huawei and ZTE is just the beginning, not the end.
The United States’ suppression of Huawei is only the first step to fully suppress my country’s semiconductor industry
The mountains are like the sea and the setting sun is like blood. We have experienced too many twists and turns on the road to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Can we survive this time?
——The road to the pass is as iron as iron, and now we have taken the step back to the beginning.
Is "de-Americanization" a good or bad thing
This article will analyze it from whether the US blockade can succeed, the current situation of my country's chip industry, what challenges will my country face after the blockade, and whether it can eventually get out of trouble.
Will the United States initiate a comprehensive suppression and ban on our semiconductor industry
0 The above analysis has been made that the United States suppresses us is imperative, but with China's current size and market share, any sanctions on our will be a double-edged sword, killing one thousand enemies and losing seven hundred themselves.
The US semiconductor industry is worried about this and specially commissioned Boston Consulting Group to conduct a research and evaluation report, hoping to impress the US government not to block my country's semiconductor industry.
Boston Consulting Group (BCG) released a report on how trade restrictions on China end US leadership in the semiconductor field. The main content of the
report is that China's semiconductor demand accounts for 23% of the world's global demand, and more than 70% of China's semiconductor demand has already mature non-US suppliers. If the United States completely bans semiconductor companies from selling products to China, then American semiconductor companies will lose 18 points of global share and 37% of revenue, resulting in a significant reduction in R&D and losing 15,000 to 40,000 high-skilled jobs, causing the US semiconductor industry to fall into a decline in competitiveness and a decline in market share.
The result is that within a few years, South Korea will benefit and become the world's semiconductor leader. In the long run, China may gain leadership in the semiconductor industry.
South Korea's semiconductor industry is also very developed
Former Google CEO can't stand it anymore: "The US ban on Huawei is equivalent to helping China develop."
Reference News Network reported on May 16 that the British Daily Mail website reported on May 14 that former Google CEO Eric Schmidt warned that the cost of decoupling the United States from China will be very high.
reported that Schmidt told Consumer News and Business Channel on Thursday local time that any form of breakdown in relations with China will be negative for the United States as a whole.
Although severing ties with China will make U.S. supply chains and manufacturing more resilient due to a lack of exports, tensions in the long run are not a good thing.
"I think it's very important to recognize this: When you decouple from China, they are fully capable of making their own chips and software, and they won't come back, and that will hurt us."
Schmidt warned that the cost of decoupling from China will be high.
Here we can see that if the United States forces China to "de-Americanize" China, the US semiconductor industry will suffer heavy losses and South Korea will benefit from it. What is more important is that once China's semiconductor industry completes "de-Americanization", the United States will no longer be able to restrain this lion that is about to wake up.
sanctions and blockades will only be effective in the short term. In the long run, it is possible to further promote the development of China's semiconductor industry.
The current situation of my country's chip industry
Don't worry too much. In fact, my country still has a layout in the semiconductor and chip industry, but it is difficult to develop for various reasons, but it does not mean it is a blank.
chip industry has doubled its performance every 18 months due to the influence of "Moore's Law", so R&D and investment are particularly huge. If you cannot receive orders and huge profit guarantees, it will be difficult to invest in the next round of R&D. my country's semiconductor and chip industries have fallen into such a "violent cycle". The equipment invested and output in the early stage is outdated, and it cannot be sold and cannot generate profits, which will affect the research and development of the next generation of updated performance, so that it has been unable to keep up with the world's leading pace.
Here I will give you some insights into the situation of my country's chip industry.
- 1.Silicon
The electronic grade high-purity silicon used in chips requires 99.99999999999999%, which is almost entirely dependent on imports. It was not until in 2018 that Xinhua Company in Jiangsu achieved mass production, and currently produces 5,000 tons of annually, while China imports 150,000 tons per year.
High purity silicon
- 2. wafer
The silicon wafer after slice is round, so it is called "wafer". The production process is:
coat the wafer with photosensitive material - use [ lithography machine ] to make the photosensitive material engrave the pattern - use [etching machine] to perform plasma erosion, and the exposed part is washed into a trench - doping phosphorus elements into the trench, and the N-type semiconductor is obtained - cleaned and re-coated the photosensitive material.
cycles like this, making wafer chips layer by layer.
This is the wafer
The chip is extremely complex
Among them, the lithography machine is almost monopolized by the Dutch ASML company and can realize the 5nm process process. , my country's Shanghai Microelectronics successfully broke the technological blockade and independently developed a 28nm lithography machine, which is expected to deliver the first domestic 28nm lithography machine in 2021.
etching machine Lam Research in the United States accounts for 55% of the market share, and Tokyo Electronics ranked second only 20%, and the US applied materials company ranked third. In December 2019, Yin Zhiyao, CEO of , , revealed that their 5nm etching machine has been recognized by , TSMC, and will be used in the production line of TSMC 5nm chips.
- 3.Chip Design EDA software
EDA software is the software required for designing electronic chips and circuit boards, covering all aspects such as IC design, circuit board design and wiring, verification and simulation, testing, etc. There is no other software tool to replace it. The three foreign giants basically monopolize 95% of the EDA market, but 5% are domestically produced.
EDA software
For example, Huada Jiutian currently basically covers all domestic semiconductor manufacturers . Manufacturers such as Huawei, Loongson, Unigroup Zhanrui, Zhaoxin, Feiteng, SMIC , Huahong Semiconductor, BOE , Shentianma, Huaxing Optoelectronics and other manufacturers all use Huada Jiutian's EDA software to design chips or conduct simulation tests.
- 4. Manufacturing
wafer foundry is the world of Taiwan Province. In addition to the giant TSMC, Taiwan also has , Lianhua Electronics , Strength Semiconductor, etc., even the United States and South Korea have to step aside.
TSMC is a giant wafer foundry
The largest foundry in the mainland is SMIC, and Shanghai Huali Microelectronics is also pretty good, but its technology and scale are far less than Taiwan. However, due to Taiwan's treacherous social situation, TSMC began to deploy in the mainland and settle in Nanjing. In recent years, Taiwanese-funded and foreign companies have been building wafer foundries in the mainland. In 2018, has a total of 46 wafer production lines in China, with a total investment of up to 1.4 trillion yuan.
my country's 12-inch wafer production line statistics
Mainland China's SMIC has a 28nm process, and the 14nm production line is also on the way. TSMC has almost won 70% of the world's foundry business below 28nm.
- 5. Packaging and testing
chip is cut from the wafer, connected to the wire and installed on the shell, and tested. This is called packaging and testing.
enclosed testing is also the world's No. 1 Sun and Moonlight, which is also the world's No. 1, and is also Silicon Products, Licheng, Nanmao, Xinbang, Jingyuan Electronics, etc.
The three major packaging and testing giants in the mainland, Changdian Technology , Huatian Technology, and Tongfu Microelectronics are also good . After all, it is just the end of the chip industry and the technical content is not high.
Chip packaging and testing
Home here, you can understand that although my country is backward in the semiconductor and chip industries, it is not without it. Of course, it is also true that some of the key components of some domestic companies still rely on imports.
What will happen if the United States completely suppresses and blocks my country's semiconductor industry?
If the United States really suddenly announces a complete blockade of my country's semiconductor industry, it is very likely to bring a period of suffocation to my country's semiconductor industry. Although there are domestic companies in every link, the level is not at the forefront of the level after all, and some key parts are still dependent on imports.
, but this suffocation period will not be too long. Although key components need to be imported, only high-end ones are imported. If mid- and low-end ones are used, they can still be manufactured in my country.
In the case of a complete blockade, mid- and low-end chips are also enough to cope with, especially in the civilian field. Take the well-known mobile phones as an example. The 28nm chip produced by my country's energy was also a high-end chip a few years ago. Basic applications are completely free of problems. Most high-end chips used in mobile phones are to make games run faster, but they have no impact on daily applications. Although there are insufficient power consumption and performance, it will not be devastated.
In addition, we can also buy semiconductor components from South Korea. South Korea is a semiconductor manufacturer second only to the United States and Taiwan Province. Faced with China, the world's largest semiconductor market, not to mention that the US semiconductor industry is unwilling to give up, South Korea is probably already fascinated. Once it seizes the opportunity, it will never miss the opportunity to sell to China.
As mentioned earlier, my country's semiconductor industry is in a "violent cycle" stage. If it is completely banned by the United States, the situation will soon change. Low-end devices that were not sold before are now sold are now hot. With profits, can invest in new research and development, which will drive the entire industry to move forward together. After all, now China, the world's largest semiconductor market, has a virtuous cycle of . It won't take long to drive the market, and China's semiconductor industry will reach the top-tier position in the world.
At present, chips are being used in military weapons more and more. Various advanced weapons and equipment such as missiles, fighter jets, air defense systems, etc. all require high-end chips. Russia lacks high-end chips, but Russia is not weaker than the United States in terms of weapons. This is mainly because Russia has taken measures such as independent innovation, leveraging its strengths and avoiding its weaknesses, making up for the shortcomings caused by the absence of high-end chips. On the one hand, without high-end chips, Russia has developed analog circuit technology to replace it; on the other hand, Russia does not care about the appearance of weapons being "stupid and thick", does not require a comprehensive overtake of the United States, but only requires a world-leading performance in the main performance. Russia has used its own excitation crystal oscillator to replace the chip. This method of playing to the strengths and avoiding weaknesses has made the United States admire it. Russia's method is also worth learning from.
Russia uses electronic tubes to replace chips, and also creates a world-leading weapon
Let me talk about the United States. After the United States bans my semiconductors, China, which accounts for half of the semiconductor industry, will inevitably be temporarily affected in some areas, such as high-performance mobile phones, and the big head of the US mobile phone chips, Qualcomm 80% of its business comes from China. When Chinese mobile phones withdraw from the global high-end mobile phone sequence, Qualcomm loses huge profits and R&D funds, it will also withdraw from the global sequence accordingly, and replace them with Broadcom and Samsung. TSMC will also quickly decline and be replaced by Samsung because of the loss of two major customers, Qualcomm and China. So it is China and the United States that are hurt, and it is South Korea that is benefiting.
China's semiconductor roadmap: Use low-end chips first - shifting the center of gravity to South Korea - the self-developed industry is mature.
Phoenix Nirvana, rebirth from the fire
If China is really suppressed, there will be pain and suffocation. But since the founding of New China, our country has learned to grow up by itself, be self-reliant, have enough food and clothing, and have developed a body of steel and iron.
Borrowing Huawei's words: looks back and it is bumpy; look forward and never give up. Without scars, how can there be thick skin and flesh? Heroes have suffered many hardships since ancient times.
Heroes have suffered many hardships since ancient times, Huawei has held on!
The momentary phoenix will be extremely painful, but what you will eventually get is Nirvana and rebirth.
The Chinese nation has always been a nation that cannot be defeated and cannot be crushed, and it is also the only remaining civilization in the world that has continued to this day. If you combine, both will benefit, and if you fight, both will suffer. We welcome cooperation. If we use a knife and axe, we will never bow our heads.
The west wind is strong,
The geese in the sky are called frosty morning moon.
The horse's hooves sounded broken, and
horn sounded.
The road to the highest pass is really iron,
is now taking the lead.
Cyanshan is like the sea,
Set sun is like blood.
——Mao Zedong's "Remembering Qin'e·Loushan Pass"
The road to the pass is as iron as iron, and now we take a step back to the beginning!
#I want to go to the headlines#, #The US has included 33 Chinese companies and institutions in the "Entity List"# (This article is an original article, and some of the pictures in the article are from the public network. If the author does not want to publish it in this article, please contact the author to delete it.
