On September 15, spot gold fluctuated downward and expanded its decline during the US session, falling behind five marks: $1,700/ounce, $1,690/ounce, $1,680/ounce, $1,670/ounce, and $1,660/ounce, with a low of $1,659.4/ounce, hitting a new low since April 2020.

International gold price fell sharply, the next day (September 16), the domestic A-share market responded violently: gold stocks fell generally. Wind data shows that as of the close of the day, Hunan gold fell 5.2%, Western gold fell 4.53%, China Gold Gold , Shandong Gold , and Zijin Mining all fell more than 3%, Chifeng Gold and Yintai Gold fell more than 2%. As of press time, international spot gold has not stopped falling, and has further dropped to $1,653.4 per ounce during the session.

reporter learned from many analysts that the decline in gold prices is related to factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and the sharp increase in the Federal Reserve rate hike.

is first of all, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on August 13 showed that the U.S. CPI growth rate in August was 8.3%, which slowed down from the previous value of 8.5%, but was still higher than expected. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 675 basis points in September, which makes gold bulls worry.

In addition, during the US session on September 15, the United States released the US retail sales data for August, and the results showed that the data performed slightly beyond expectations. The initial unemployment claims data released at the same time as the retail data was also less than expected, which was the fifth consecutive week of decline. "The two data reflect that the US economy is still resilient under the strong areas of consumption and employment, which once again strengthens the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike expectations, and gold and silver fell immediately." Xia Yingying, a metal analyst at Nanhua Futures , told reporters.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, the international spot gold price has fallen from US$2,070/ounce in March to US$400/ounce, with a cumulative decline of more than 20% during the period. Regarding the rest of 2022, industry insiders believe that the Fed's monetary policy adjustment expectations and concerns about the US recession will dominate the gold market.

Shi Jialiang, the nonferrous precious metals group of Founder Medium-term Research Institute, told reporters that since the third quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment expectations and rhythm have continued to dominate the gold trend. Due to changes in the Fed's expected acceleration of interest rate hikes, gold overall showed a trend of weakening first and then rebounding again, and remained weak overall. Next, we need to continue to pay attention to the pace of the Fed rate hike and the expected progress of the recession.

He believes that after the Fed accelerates tightening of monetary policy path gradually becomes clear, concerns about economic recession have intensified, and the geopolitical situation has not improved substantially. commodity is likely to be weak. Gold may be dragged down in the short term in the rest of 2022, but the support at key points is still effective, and the gold allocation price above the key points still exists. He believes that the main operating range of gold in 2022 is US$1,675-2,075/ounce (Shanghai gold 355-425 yuan/gram).

For gold futures, GF Futures believes that the actual interest rate and the US dollar maintain a strong strength make investors favor US dollar US bond and other assets to hedge the impact of interest rate hike. Under this circumstance, the market for precious metal is unlikely to improve. During the period, the news impact trend will be repeated in the short term. Before and after the interest rate hike, the trend will fluctuate with the trend of risk assets. The future market needs more fundamental information guidance.

Guosen Futures also stated that the US CPI in August was higher than expected, and the month-on-month rebound of core inflation highlighted the viscosity of inflation, and the sub-item performance highlighted the resilience of the current service industry. The market has fully included the expectation of a 75bp rate hike in September, and there is another 30% probability that a 100bp rate hike is expected. The resilience of the US economy is still prominent, while the European economic prosperity is under significant pressure. The upward trend of the index of may not have ended, the upward trend of the real interest rate has not ended, and the pressure above precious metals still exists.