"Military and Martial Plane" Author: Zhilian Chu Guidance
In recent days, Ukraine has frequently released the important news of "recovering lost land".
Like On September 6, the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack in the direction of Kharkov, and successively conquered several important towns such as Ijium, forcing the Russian army to evacuate from the Kharkiv region in northeastern Ukraine and the Khlsong region in the south. The battlefield situation took a sudden change.
President Zelensky even claimed that since the offensive began in September, the Ukrainian army has recovered more than 6,000 square kilometers of territory. The Ukrainian army's large counterattack made many Ukrainian supporters extremely excited, and the slogans of "Ukraine will win!" were rising one after another online, as if the war had reached a strategic turning point.
's one-sided voice seems to remind people of the time when the Russian army just launched a special military operation against Ukraine half a year ago. Didn't the Internet also applaud the Russian army, thinking that the Russian army would definitely be out of control and easily and happily advance into Kiev ?
The biggest battlefield of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is in China?
On February 24 this year, after Putin announced a "special military action" against Ukraine, the Russian air assault brigade raided Antonov International Airport in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine.
At the same time, the Russian ground forces began to attack Ukraine in centripetal from several directions from Kiev, Kohmei, Kharkov, Luhansk and Donetsk and Crimea , trying to replicate the classic success stories of the Soviet army in Czechoslovak and Afghan in the last century.
▲From a purely military perspective, the Soviet army's actions in Czechoslovakia were undoubtedly successful
At that time, almost no one was optimistic about Ukraine, including most people in the entire Western society believed that the Russian army's battle was a hot knife cutting butter. Some people said that Ukraine could only last 48 hours.
However, since then, the public opinion positions of domestic netizens have divided into two major camps, Promotion Russia and Promotion Ukraine. As the war continues, these two major camps gradually become opposite and even develop to a state of intolerance and hostility.
There was even a "public opinion war" between the two camps, using "Russian fans" or "Black fans" to call each other. Some friends who had a good relationship also blocked each other because of the so-called "camps".
However, when Russia showed an "overwhelming" military advantage at the beginning of the war, the rhetoric of support for Russia dominated the Internet. Even if there were discussions on the issue of war responsibility on the platform, it did not cause much trouble.
However, as the battle situation was stalemate, people gradually discovered that Ukraine was not so vulnerable, and Zeliansky did not escape. Instead, the Russian army lost all the equipment. Even the Ukrainian uncle could drive the Russian Doyle air defense missile launcher home with a tractor, and the Ukrainian anti-tank team of several people could beat the Russian army's armored convoy all over the ground.
How can this be worthy of the title of "fighting nation"?
So, some people began to "dismiss" from Russia, especially in recent times, European and American countries have increased their support for Ukraine, giving out equipment and money. In addition, Ukraine has launched a counterattack in the past few days, the balance of the battlefield seems to be coming to Ukraine soon, so it becomes a "Ukrainian fan".
In fact, no matter how the trend of online public opinion changes, there are only a few people who change:
The first type is unconditionally supported by Russia.
For these people, the Russian army lost its equipment because old equipment should have been eliminated, the commander was sniped because he led the way, and retreated and "turned forward" because he wanted to preserve his vitality. Anyway, all Russia's actions are reasonable, and all twists and turns are the inevitable path for the Russian army to win.
They forcibly tied up their support for Russia and their patriotic stance. Whoever dares not support Russia will be 1450, either beheading or going to jail.
For them, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not important. What is important is that they must express their so-called patriotic sentiment through this forcibly binding, even if their views cannot stand scrutiny at all.
The second type is the one that will be opposed whenever Russia is concerned.
This group of people are similar to each other. If you mention " Treaty of Nibchu and " Treaty of Aihui " in advance, don't ask, ask when will you repay the invasion of so much of China's territory? As long as others say they support Russia, no matter what attitude or reason, they will immediately label people as "yellow Russia". As for the current situation, they don't care, and their emotional expression is the most important thing.
The third type, understand and tend toward Russia.
They are a more rational group. They can support Russia to a certain extent from the perspective of simple emotions or the actual interests of China and Russia, understand Russia's practices, but they still follow our official views, neither support nor oppose, and sympathize with the ordinary people of Ukraine, hoping to regain peace through negotiations as soon as possible.
The fourth type is sympathetic and inclined toward Ukrainian.
They are similar to the third type. They support the Ukrainian people's behavior of defending the motherland, sympathize with civilian casualties, and oppose Russia's military operations to a certain extent, but they do not rebel whenever Russia is concerned. They can look at Ukrainian issues more rationally. The fourth type is easily labeled as "unpatriotic" by the first type of people.
In fact, most people tend to be silent most. After all, online media platforms are the king. When you struggle to say "the opinions of most people", you will not attract people's attention at all. When your remarks move closer to the two poles, on the one hand, extreme spectators will like and agree, on the other hand, they will trigger a large number of comments, which will become traffic, and the real "most people's opinions" will be covered by big data.
So, although online public opinion increases and decreases, in fact, it is just a few people who are fencemen. This is not the one who wins in " Let Bullets Fly " who will help whom, let alone win or lose, isn't it still not decided?
But then again, objectively speaking, the Russian army's battle was indeed defeated.
The Russian army is indeed a bit bad
Whether Russia is willing to admit it or not, it is indeed a bit embarrassing on the Kharkov front. Whether it is the defeat that cannot be sustained or the abandonment of strategic contraction, it cannot cover up the predicament of defeat on the battlefield. Even Chechnya President Kadyrov can't stand it anymore.
Before the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in recent years, the Russian army's performance in the Russian-Germany War, Syrian War, and Kazakhstan's peacekeeping mission not long ago cannot be said to be perfect, but at least it is remarkable, giving people a new feeling of elite soldiers and strong generals.
The problem exposed by this conflict is like a steel needle piercing the Russian army's soap bubble , which surprised the world. So what level is the Russian army?
Many people's impression of the Russian army was still in the period when the Soviet army vowed to use steel to scatter the European plains. However, the Soviet Union has been disintegrated for more than 30 years, and the Russian army has long been no longer the red beast of the past.
In the early days of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia thought that it could join the Western camp from now on, and coupled with the influence of the Gulf War, Russia believed that it was not necessary to maintain a large-scale army, especially the army, and just build the Russian army into an elite force with a small quantity and high quality that can win local wars.
So by 1998, the Russian army abolished the military-level system during the Soviet era, and the command system was converted to the third-level army-division/brigade-regiment level. The Army Command was revoked, and only 24 of the 212 Army division numbers were cut, and the number of people was reduced from more than 1.5 million to 320,000.
However, in the First Chechen War that broke out in 1994, the Russian army suffered consecutive defeats. On December 31 alone, more than 1,000 Russian soldiers died. The effect of the reform can be imagined.
The Second Chechen War After the victory of the miserable victory by piled up people, Russia carried out the first large-scale and systematic military reform based on the problems exposed by the war.
The Russian Army increased from 320,000 to 370,000, which clarified the concept of a division/brigade as the main combat corps, and established regional commands in various strategic directions, established standing mobile corps in key areas, and also restored the Army Command in March 2001.
The overall effect of this reform was good, but due to too much debt before, the main efforts were put into the head, and the rectification of the stubborn diseases of grassroots combat troops was not ideal enough, and all this was fed back in the 2008 Russian-German War.
In order to build the Russian army into a mobile, flexible, well-trained and well-equipped capable and professional armed force, the Minister of Defense Serdukov, who was a businessman, began a drastic "new look" reform after the end of the Russian-German War.
▲Serdukov's reform results on the Russian army
However, with two speed-ups, the "new look" reform originally planned to be completed in four years was completed within one year, and the results brought about by this were actually disastrous.
On the one hand, due to lack of money, the information construction has lagged behind. The degree of synthesis of each battalion under the synthetic brigade is almost the same as the previous divisions changed their names, changing their soup but not changing their medicines, and their combat effectiveness has not improved much, but there have been a lot of fewer people.
On the other hand, due to the one-sided pursuit of streamlining military officers, a large number of experienced middle and senior officers were lost, and the originally very critical warrant officer system was also abolished, causing tens of thousands of backbone personnel to be lost. In addition, the reduction in command levels made it difficult for the hasty battle command to play a role, which made the Russian army's actual combat capabilities not increase but decline.
So later, after taking office as Minister of National Defense, he turned around and restored the Army Group system, and called the brigade but in fact the division unit simply changed back to the division. The troops resumed the training, garrisoning and management mode of a single army unit before.
, while regaining the "battalion-level task force" combat idea originated from the Soviet era. Since 2014, it has tried to sink the original basic synthetic units from the original division, brigade, and regiment to the battalion, vigorously promoting the temporary "multi-army synthetic combat group (ОТГ)", which is a "battalion-level combat group" similar to the US military.
This ОТГ is a temporary military unit based on the motorcycle camp and combined with temporary draws. Its advantage is that the combat marshalling form is flexible and can be adjusted at will according to the task needs.
Due to his outstanding performance in the Donbass conflict and the Syrian War, ОТГ quickly promoted it in the Russian army, and its opening performance in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was indeed impressive, and there was even a limit record of ОТГ's crazy breakthrough of 360 kilometers in 4 days.
However, ОТГ is actually a compromise product of the Russian army's lack of money but has to respond quickly, because its support units are usually assigned to the brigade system, and only during combat will it strengthen the formation of a "tip of a knife" for ОТГ. The biggest problem with the assault force that relies on temporary strengthening to ensure is that the combat effectiveness is poor. On the one hand, it is because the tanks, and infantry with only 2 companies, are short of personnel and can only focus on attacking in one or two directions, and lacks control and occupation ability. Once casualties occur, the combat effectiveness will drop rapidly and need to be quickly evacuated and replenished.
Like when the People's Liberation Army was conducting joint exercises with the Russian Army, there is a very classic saying: once you travel for more than an hour and a half, you have to stop and wait for a while, otherwise the Russian armored force will not be able to keep up.
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand the recent performance of Russian Army in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. After all, the banner this time is a "special military operation". nuclear weapon cannot move, and domestic conscripts cannot move. Facing an opponent like the Ukrainian army that has been prepared for eight years, it is indeed a bit whimsical to win in a short time.
Of course, as China, from the perspective of real interests, Russia's defeat has indeed had a certain negative impact on us, but if China comes to help Russia in person because of this, it may be a bit unclear.
What kind of Russia does China really need?
The relationship between China and Russia is generally bumpy.
In the late Qing Dynasty, although Tsarist Russian could not rank in Europe, it was still more than enough to bully the Qing court. First, it seized the Nebuchu area east of Lake Baikal through the Treaty of Nebuchu, which was originally part of China. Later, in the Second Opium War, robbed the Qing court in the Second Opium War, forcing the Qing court to ced large areas of territory in the Northeast and Northwest and signed the Treaty of Aihui.
Looking at modern history, the relatively powerful Tsarist Russia occupied more than one million Chinese territory through a series of unequal treaties, which was the most invaded by the great powers. In addition, Mongolia broke away from China under the instigation of the Soviet Union. It can be said that China lost more than three million square kilometers of territory in their hands.
However, the Soviet Union gave China guidance and selfless assistance. The Communist Party of China was established in 1921 under the guidance of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and became a branch of Communist International .
In 1945, the Chinese Communist Party's army also occupied a large area of Northeast China with the support of the Soviet Union, and received some Japanese equipment, laying a good foundation for Liaoshen Battle .
In 1950, the Soviet Union and the New China signed the " Sino-Soviet Friendship Alliance and Mutual Assistance Treaty ", which played a great role in promoting China's breaking the blockade and developing the national economy.
Especially during the Sino-Soviet honeymoon period, the selfless assistance provided by the Soviet Union, represented by 156 basic industrial facility construction projects, allowed China to establish a supporting national defense industrial foundation with a cost of tens of billions of yuan in less than 10 years, creating a record of the lowest cost and unprecedented scale speed in modern and modern history in the world.
However, with the increasing strength of the Soviet Union, it began to commit the problem of a big country chauvinism , interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, and no longer treating brother parties equally, which aroused strong dissatisfaction from China, and Sino-Soviet relations became increasingly tense.
In the end, the Soviet Union unilaterally tore up the treaty, withdrew all experts in China, and cut off China's aid. After the Sino-Soviet relations completely deteriorated, there were even armed border conflicts and large-scale smuggling of border residents. The two countries once reached the brink of a nuclear war.
At the same time, the Soviet Union deployed millions of troops on the Sino-Soviet border, becoming a sword hanging over China, and China could only be forced to fight and carry out the construction of the third line of to prepare for war and famine. Various places have widely carried out the "deep digging holes and accumulation of grain" campaign.
Later, it was not until the 1980s when Gorbachev came to power, due to the decline of the Soviet Union's economy, the foreign strategy turned to a comprehensive contraction, which actively improved Sino-Soviet relations, and the confrontation between the two countries gradually eased and returned to normal.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia turned into the arms of the West, but what it received was an economic collapse and became a third-rate country overnight. NATO's eastward expansion forced Russia to rely on China to balance relations with European, American and Western countries. Therefore, China and Russia signed a border agreement to reduce border troops in 1997 and announced the establishment of a strategic partnership between the two countries.
The collapse of the Soviet Union and the improvement of Sino-Russia relations have, on the one hand, suddenly reduced the pressure on China's surrounding environment, especially the north, and suddenly freed up a large amount of manpower and material resources to develop the economy, carry out reform and opening up, promote domestic reforms, and increase China's bargaining chips to restrain the United States and Japan.
On the other hand, Russia, which has declined and became a resource exporter, has provided a large amount of oil and gas resources and industrial raw materials to China, which has rapidly developed its economy, and has become a consumer market for Chinese goods.
However, both China and Russia prefer to develop relations with European and American countries to develop the economy, and the cooperation between the two sides has always been hot in the government and the people are cold.
In recent years, it has been around the issue of Russian Far East oil export pipelines, which is to change the original Anta line to Anna line, which makes it easier for South Korea and Japan to import oil from Russia.
The relationship between China and Russia is as stated in the previous answer to Zhihu on "How to evaluate the People's Liberation Army participating in the Red Square Military Parade Rehearsal and singing "Katyusha"":
When everyone was not sensible, they also met in war. When everyone was in trouble, they were also loyal to each other.
Later, it has been mature and can do things. On the surface, they are harmonious and secretly plot against each other. They can't make friends with each other. They say it's a pity for passers-by, but they can barely be considered an old friend. It was a good day, and everyone was happy and happy. I'm visiting your house and I'm one of the people in the group.
Why not give you a song you once taught me?
On June 5, 2019, the head of state of China and Russia decided to elevate the relationship between the two countries to a "China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation in the new era."
Although the establishment of this relationship is actually very strategic, the two sides are largely due to the US's pressure to keep warm, Russia now has common strategic interests with China. As two fulcrums supporting the pressure of the US, it will be uncomfortable to lose one of the other.
In this Russian-Ukrainian war, if Russia fails or even loses its country, then China will inevitably face joint suppression from the West, and the ending will not be much better than Russia.
But if Russia wins quickly, it will be equivalent to easily gaining important strategic advantages and becoming stronger again. The United States and NATO are likely to compromise with it to a certain extent, and even reach some agreements that are not conducive to China.
In contrast, the history of China-Russia relations in modern times is by no means alarmist, so for China, a weak Russia is more in line with China's interests.
Now, the relationship between countries is expressed online in anthropomorphic and childish. Although this helps more people understand the originally obscure international relations, it will inevitably lead to childishness and fan circle.
This Russian-Ukrainian conflict is by no means as simple as two people fighting. It is obviously inappropriate to apply it to such complex international relations by simply using simple personality behaviors.
If you look at this war simply from the perspective of the Chinese, it is actually better in this state. The longer it drags on, the more beneficial it will be for China. On the one hand, Russia has delayed the United States, allowing NATO to exhaust its family and share China's strategic pressure. On the other hand, Russia will rely on China to provide resources and markets, as well as a stable surrounding environment.
As ordinary people, we can actually watch the show quietly. There is no need to bring too much emotion. We must fight to the death online and believe in China's strategic determination.Personal position is important, but at least we have to think about who provides us with a peaceful environment to express our position, right?
