used to be "hard to get a box", but now it is "hard to get a piece of food".
The third quarter of each year is the global shipping peak season, but this year's peak season is not strong, and shipping prices continue to fall. The reason is that on the one hand, inflation has suppressed global consumer demand and the "goods" have become less; on the other hand, with Russia's natural gas shutdown, Europe has increased its imports and reserves for alternative energy sources such as coal and oil, and the crude oil transportation market ushered in the peak season ahead of schedule.
The reduction in goods has led to a decline in shipping prices
Yiwu is the world's largest small commodity distribution center and is known as the "world supermarket". The reporter learned from some foreign trade and logistics companies in Yiwu that the shipping prices this year have dropped significantly compared with last year.
"Many of our containers are ordered by customers and may be cheaper. But overall, the container price this year has dropped a lot compared to last year." Li Meiru, a merchant who operates Christmas supplies in Yiwu International Trade City , told Tianmu News reporters.
In addition, many foreign trade companies shipped in advance this year, which is coming to an end recently, which has also affected the recent shipping prices. "In previous years, it started from March to June, and customers placed orders one after another, but this year it started almost from February. The peak shipment season in previous years was generally from July to September, and this year it has been advanced to May to August." Yiwu merchant Jiang Jiangping told Tianmu News reporters.
The FBX index released by the Baltic Shipping Exchange shows that on September 26, the freight rate for 40-foot containers from Asia to the United States and the West is currently about US$2,943 per box, down 80% from January. The shipping costs for containers from Asia to Nordic Europe are $7,046, about 50% lower than the beginning of this year.
Cheng Keyuan, head of Zhejiang Yinghe International Logistics Co., Ltd., told Tianmu News reporter: "Container freight is more expensive than in 2019 before the epidemic, with a difference of about US$1,000. The US-Western route was around US$10,000 last year, and now it is US$3,000, which is equivalent to a decrease of 60-70%. But last year was special and has no reference value."
Ningbo Zhoushan Port Chuanshan Port Area. Photo by Reporter Gan Jupeng
In 2021, due to supply chain disruptions, port backlog and surge in cargo, container shortages and freight costs rose sharply.
"Last year, the route was congested, there were few containers, and the position was tight, so the price rose. This year, the global economy was under great pressure, the cost of living abroad rose sharply, and consumption power decreased. If you can not buy what is not related to life, you will not buy what is not related to life, resulting in a decrease in goods." Cheng Keyuan said that on the other hand, for foreign trade companies, a decline in freight costs is also a good thing, which is good for exports.
cargo decreases, resulting in a slowdown in the growth of port cargo throughput.
According to data released by Ningbo Port (601018) on September 3, in August this year, Ningbo Zhoushan Port Co., Ltd. is expected to complete a container throughput of 3.58 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%; it is expected to complete a cargo throughput of 87.99 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%.
Ningbo Port stated at its performance meeting on September 19 that the port is currently mainly facing macroeconomic risks, market competition risks, operating risks, risks brought by the epidemic, etc., which will have an impact on the port freight market in the second half of the year.
, which operates the world's fourth largest container fleet, said in an announcement on September 20 that the supply and demand relationship of market has undergone certain marginal changes in in the recent market. On the supply side, the congestion in ports in major navigation areas has been alleviated and the capacity has been gradually released; on the demand side, under the influence of factors such as increasing inflation pressure and high energy prices, market demand has declined to a certain extent, and market freight rates have adjusted to a certain extent. The subsequent market may show that the peak season is not prosperous and the off-season is not dull.
Geopolitics pushes up the prosperity of oil transportation
Unlike the overall sea transportation market adjustment, the crude oil transportation market, the sub-market of sea transportation, has changed from a weak to a prosperous market.
htmlOn September 23, the latest China imported crude oil freight index released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 1816.13 points, up 15.41 points from the previous period.According to Securities Daily, except for VLCC (super-large tanker), the daily income levels of representative routes of other tanker types have increased by more than 100% compared with the same period last year.According to CCTV Finance, in September, the freight rates of super-large tankers Middle East to Ningbo increased by more than 15% month-on-month.
Zhejiang Merchants Futures Crude oil analyst Hong Xiaoqiang told Tianmu News reporter: "After OPEC gradually increased production, the supply of crude oil is increasing, and the demand for oil transportation has increased. In addition, the distance from Russia's crude oil to Europe was very short, but now Europe does not accept it. Russia's crude oil is transported to Asia, and the transportation distance has expanded several times, which is equivalent to increasing the demand for oil transportation in disguise."
Hong Xiaoqiang analyzed that the demand for crude oil is also slowly increasing. In fact, the procurement and processing volume of refineries have not decreased, especially the start of construction of Chinese refineries has rebounded to a higher level, and the procurement demand will also increase.
Zhonghua Xingzhongaoshan Base Reporter Gan Jupeng
Oil transportation price rise is also reflected in the stock prices of related listed companies. China Merchants Nanyang Oil Corporation (601975) has accumulated a cumulative increase of about 50% since September, COSCO Shipping (600026) has risen by more than 26% in September, and Hong Kong stocks COSCO Shipping International (00517) has also continued to rise recently.
In response to this, China Merchants South Oil reminded investors to pay attention to the volatility risks of the tanker transportation market in an announcement on September 22. " shipping market is affected by a combination of various factors, and there are many uncertainties in the freight trend."
Regarding the reasons for the rise in oil freight rates, Guotai Junan Securities Transportation Industry stated in its research report that geopolitical factors have changed the international oil trade pattern. The small and medium-sized crude oil tanker ship types benefited from the sharp increase in exports of American Bay and West Africa to European cargo pallets, and the market performance was active. Finished tankers have shown a strong recovery momentum while refining profit margins support trade activity. "The market will usher in a certain recovery in the next two years. In the past two years, the supply and demand of the sector has been bottomed out, and terminal consumption of crude oil will resume growth, while crude oil inventory reduction has basically been completed, and oil transportation demand has ushered in a lag-down and accelerated recovery."
Anxin Securities also stated in its research report that the turning point of supply and demand for oil transportation has reached, ushering in an upward cycle. Short-term geopolitics, new environmental regulations and other factors may further affect demand supply, pushing up the prosperity of oil transportation. The demand curve of oil transportation is steep, and the difference in supply and demand is expected to bring about a significant increase in freight prices.
