The author Ma Kangzhuang is a director of the Chinese Fengyuan Society and an associate professor at Xuanzang University in Taiwan.
The United States has become an exporter of natural gas since 2016, changing its role from an energy importing country to an energy exporting country, and becoming the world's largest in 2020 of crude oil producing countries. The changing role of energy has affected the United States in adjusting its global strategic architecture. The export of energy from the United States also challenges the monopoly of OPEC and reduces the incentive for the United States to deeply intervene in the political situation in the Middle East. The importance of the Middle East to the United States is gradually declining. However, in order to maintain the hegemony of the U.S. dollar, oil actually plays a key role in the exchange and release of the U.S. dollar. In the changing situation of the role of oil supply and demand, in order to consolidate the oil dollar system of the United States, in addition to competing for the market with other oil and gas supplier countries, this market structure is competitive with OPEC, Russia, Qatar, and other countries. Contradictory, and the formation of transaction demand with a conservative tendency in the market structure of countries with large oil and gas demand. China's alliance with Iran in 2021 has squeezed out China's purchase of shale oil and gas from the United States. However, in the end, the United States still must try to reach oil and natural gas deals with China, because China is the world's largest crude oil importer and second largest crude oil consumer. It is useful when needed and its status cannot be replaced. In addition, in order to continue to maintain the hegemony of the US dollar, the United States has also begun to try to strengthen the petrodollar with chip dollars.
After Biden took office as President of the United States in 2021, although sanctions on Russian manufacturers building the "Nord Stream 2" natural gas pipeline were suspended on the surface, allowing the " Nord Stream 2 " to be successfully constructed, the European Union has not yet been corrected "Nord Stream 2" issued a gas supply license, which led to tensions between Russia and Ukraine borders. War seemed to be in danger of breaking out. It also indirectly caused refugee problems at Belarus and Poland borders. Future refugees The problem will further extend and become a hidden worry for Germany. In November 2021, the United States further sanctioned personnel related to the "Nord Stream 2" weather pipeline. If the United States fails to obstruct the Russian and German "Nord Stream 2" plans in the future, because the "Beixi 2" air pipeline can By transporting 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe, China will become more irreplaceable as a possible buyer of the U.S. oil and gas consumption market, and China's energy consumption market will become a sales target for the United States and Russia. Due to the deterioration of epidemic prevention and control in the United States and the deterioration of inflation , President Biden's public support has declined rapidly. It is expected that the congressional reelection in November 2022 and the presidential election in 2024 will not be promising for the Democratic Party. The petrochemical industry has long been a source of political donations for the Republican Party , and will have a greater impact on the direction of U.S. policy in the future. In view of this, in order to leverage the political direction of the U.S. party, China seems to consider purchasing an appropriate amount of U.S. oil and gas.
Eighty percent of the raw materials China imports from the Middle East and Africa must be transported through the Malacca Strait , and Singapore ’s Changi base is stationed with US ships. In order to prevent future energy transportation through the Malacca Strait, it will Therefore, in the energy strategy of One Belt and One Road, it is planned to add two alternative channels through Gwadar, Pakistan and Kyaukpyu, Myanmar. Gwadar is connected to the Arabian Sea and is located close to the oil-producing areas of the Middle East. Kyaukpyu is located further south than Gwadar and is connected to the Indian Ocean. In 2018, China and Myanmar signed an agreement to build a "herringbone" China-Myanmar Economic Corridor from Yunnan to Yangon New Town and Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone. Among them, there are planned crude oil pipelines starting from Made Island, located southeast of Kyaukpyu Port on the west coast of Myanmar, and have been officially put into operation since 2017, and the crude oil pipeline from Kyaukpyu Port in Rakhine State, which was put into operation in 2013. Yunnan Ruili's East Natural Gas Pipeline. As of November 30, 2019, the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline has transported a total of 24.8575 million tons of crude oil and 24.233 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China, bringing a total of direct economic benefits to Myanmar of US$520 million. A military coup occurred in Myanmar on February 1, 2021, and the military arrested State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi. The situation in Myanmar is turbulent, and the development of the situation in China and Myanmar remains to be seen, but due to economic needs, it is not expected to remain stagnant.
Pakistan's deep-water port Gwadar was fully opened in 2016. Gwadar is Pakistan's gateway to the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. It can open China's west side exports and solve the problem of China's energy imports from the Middle East and Africa passing through the Strait of Malacca. In the future, the oil pipeline from Gwadar Port to Kashgar, Xinjiang will be directly accessible. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor China has a direct investment of US$25.4 billion, and is also equipped with seawater purification plants and coal-fired power plants. The north of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor borders Balochistan . The Baloch guerrillas are inextricably linked to US intelligence agencies, which has become the biggest concern for the security of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. However, since the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, the situation has calmed down. China has UAV Rainbow 4 (CH4) production lines in Myanmar and Pakistan, which are used for economic corridor patrolling, reconnaissance, and security. The third overseas UAV production line is planned to be located in Saudi Arabia .
In order to avoid the "Malacca Dilemma" encountered in energy transportation, China has laid out its oil transportation routes from the Middle East. In addition to building Gwadar and Kyaukphyu, it is also developing the Kra Isthmus in Thailand to replace the Malacca Strait Channel. . After the transportation channel is secured, it is also necessary to establish a secure source of energy supply. On May 8, 2018, the President of the United States unilaterally announced his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement and re-initiated comprehensive sanctions on Iran. Under the international sanctions , it has become difficult for Iran to export oil and make international financial payments, thus creating the possibility of Sino-Iranian cooperation. On March 27, 2021, China and Iran signed the "China-Iran Comprehensive Cooperation Plan". China and Iran will cooperate economically and politically strategically. It is agreed that China can obtain a large amount of Iranian oil for a period of 25 years. In September 2021, after ruling out Russia's opposition, Iran was officially approved as a permanent member of the " Shanghai Cooperation Organization ", which eased the pressure on Iran from US sanctions and also showed Russia's acquiescence in China's economic and trade power entering the Middle East, as well as Russia's tolerance Iranian energy shares China's market demand.
In 2014, Russia's relations with Western countries deteriorated due to the Crimea incident . Russia began to prefer China as an ally in order to balance the pressure from Western countries. On the other hand, the alliance between China and Russia also lowered the threshold for China to complete the great cause of reunification in the future. To a certain extent, Russia's military deployment on Sakhalin Island in the north will restrain Japan from paying too much attention to the Taiwan Strait. Russia serves as the backing for the supply of China Energy. The China-Russia natural gas pipeline was officially opened in December 2019, with a total length of 5,111 kilometers. When the entire line is put into operation, the gas transmission capacity will reach 38 billion cubic meters per year. Natural gas will be transported from eastern Siberia to nine provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China along the pipeline, and has reached Shanghai, which is of great significance to China's energy security. The Eastern Natural Gas Pipeline marks Russia’s shift of center of gravity towards China. At present, Russia has separately approved the construction of the western natural gas pipeline. Since the "Beixi 2" pipeline line has been boycotted by Europe and the United States, it plans to transport natural gas from western Siberia to central China through Mongolia in the future to replace the gas lost in Europe. market.
In October 2020, the four countries of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia held a joint military exercise to form the "Quadrilateral Talks" (QUAD). On the surface, it emphasized the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, but in fact it was launched in response to the rise of China. Although each of the four countries has its own weaknesses and problems. For example, the United States is experiencing a serious epidemic and inflation, and ethnic issues are also difficult to recover from. Japan's US military base in Okinawa has encountered strong resistance from residents, and the north is facing Russia's deployment of missile bases on four islands. India has also encountered a severe epidemic, and India's purchase of Russian weapons and equipment has also aroused doubts in the United States; Australia has had a serious trade conflict with China. Despite this, the "Quadrilateral Talks" still seek to strengthen and establish strategic partnerships among the four countries. The United States also plans to recall its retired Aegis-class destroyers. In the short term, it will strengthen its defense of the first island chain with its missiles. In the medium term, it will try to use its missiles to strengthen defense against countries along the first island chain such as South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan. Medium-range missiles are deployed in the region to defend the defense line from Guam to Australia. The strategic thinking of the United States is a rational model with containment as its core, and it responds to China’s Belt and Road model of international society.The "Four-Party Talks" were based on internal affairs but relied on external interests, which was not praised by the Spring and Autumn Annals.
The Belt and Road strategic thinking can not only absorb China's excess production capacity, labor force, and capital, but most importantly, it can also improve the infrastructure of countries along the Belt and Road. The great meaning of "Spring and Autumn" is "accommodating the world because of its country", which means that as China's national power increases, it will exert its capabilities at different stages to contribute to the international community and will not interfere in the internal affairs of countries along the route. Therefore, China’s strategic thinking in response to the “Four-Party Talks” does not require neighboring countries to choose sides, but rather to join regional economic and trade organizations, such as the ASEAN 10+6 in 2022. The "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) came into effect, and we applied to join the "Pacific Partnership Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement" (CPTPP) and the "Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA) ), in addition to relieving the pressure on China from being isolated, it may also reorganize the supply chain and generate new interest connections due to economic and trade interactions with the "Four-Party Talks" countries, thus enabling the emergence of military alliances in the "Four-Party Talks" Break, causing it to gradually loosen or even disintegrate.
