According to a report by Taiwan's United News Network on the 7th, Taiwan's "Coastal Patrol Agency" recently announced that a mainland drone was "flying around the island" over Dongsha Island . "IOC chairman" Li Zhongwei said that "when entering the destruction zone, we will deal with it in accordance with the regulations" and even "fire when it's time to fire." However, mainland experts said that there are currently no Taiwanese air defense forces on Dongsha Island, and "fire" is just talk. Even if the Taiwan military deploys ships and aircraft to the surrounding areas, or deploys anti-aircraft missiles to Dongsha Island, the Taiwan military will never have the courage to open fire.
Data map: Dongsha Island
Can the Dongsha Island garrison shoot down the drone?
Taiwan's "Central News Agency" reported that Taiwan's "Coastal Patrol Agency" recently submitted a special report to the "Legislative Yuan" stating that mainland drones have recently been flying around the island in the airspace near Dongsha Island, and it cannot be ruled out that they are conducting reconnaissance and search operations. Li Zhongwei introduced that the top of Taiwan's airspace is divided into a "surveillance area", a "warning area" and a "destruction area". In the "surveillance area" Taiwan will use reconnaissance equipment to monitor operations. If it enters the "warning zone", the Taiwan military will send appropriate troops to monitor and warn; once it enters the "destruction zone", it will be dealt with in accordance with regulations. Li Zhongwei said that in order to understand the situation in the sea areas around Taiwan, in addition to the existing reconnaissance capabilities of the Coast Guard, it also shares intelligence with other units. Li Zhongwei also said that whether it is an air target or a water target, there are ways to control it.
It is not yet clear what type of drone Taiwan is talking about, whether it is military or civilian. But it is definitely not a consumer-grade small drone like DJI that can fly around Dongsha Island. If it is a medium-altitude long-endurance drone like the "Predator", its self-defense capability is indeed weak. Yemen Houthi armed forces have shot down the American "Reaper" drone. But even if such drones fly around Dongsha Island, the garrison on the island will not be able to shoot them down. If it is a larger high-altitude long-endurance drone that can fly around the island and can fly above 8,000 meters, it will be impossible for the Dongsha Island garrison force to shoot it down. When Taiwanese politicians say "fire", it is not as simple as just using their words.
However, experts said that they cannot rule out the possibility that relevant Taiwanese personnel stationed on Dongsha Island are equipped with small drone jamming equipment. However, this type of small interference equipment is mainly aimed at small civilian UAVs and is used to interfere with control channels or satellite navigation channels. It is doubtful whether it can effectively interfere with large military UAVs.
Do Taiwanese troops dare to open fire?
If the Taiwan military sends warships or aircraft near Dongsha to attack drones, they may never come back. First of all, from a geographical point of view, the Taiwan military has no "geographical advantage" in confronting the People's Liberation Army there. Dongsha Island is located in the north of the South China Sea and southwest of Taiwan. According to Taiwanese media, the waters off Dongsha Island have been classified as controlled areas by the Taiwan authorities, and ordinary people cannot enter freely. Dongsha Island is 410 kilometers away from Taiwan and only over 200 kilometers away from the nearest mainland. Geographically, it is closer to the mainland and far away from Taiwan.
Secondly, from the perspective of military strength, the current Taiwan military strength is tight, and it is difficult to take into account the defense of the island. If naval and air forces are dispatched to Dongsha Island, it will definitely not be comparable to the People's Liberation Army in terms of scale and combat capabilities. If Taiwan sends naval and air forces to Dongsha Island and takes the initiative to fire on mainland drones, it will be asking for trouble, and there may be no return.
In fact, at the beginning, the Taiwan military withdrew from Taiping Island and Dongsha Island and other outlying islands, mainly because although those places were important, they were of little value to Taiwan. Dongsha Island has a limited area of only 1.74 square kilometers. Taiwan wanted to Even if you keep it, you can't keep it. Now Taiwan's main island's defenses are tight and there is no time to take care of these outlying islands. Even if relatively large air defense missiles are deployed to the tiny Dongsha Island, they will never have the guts to fire on mainland drones first. This kind of firing could very well mean war. However, with a small number of anti-aircraft missiles deployed on Dongsha Island, there is nowhere to hide or maneuver, so they can only become targets. Under such circumstances, the Taiwan military would never have the guts to fire on the People's Liberation Army drones first on Dongsha Island.
"Destruction zone" has no actual binding force
Taiwanese politicians frequently talk about warning zones and destruction zones. So how big is the destruction zone? Can the People's Liberation Army drones enter the destruction zone? In fact, Taiwan does not have the final say unilaterally as to how close the PLA military aircraft can be to Dongsha Island. Generally speaking, this distance is determined by the comparison of strength and political relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. The decisive factor is strength. In the 1960s, when the Taiwan military's air power was relatively strong, it even sent the U-2 reconnaissance aircraft into the mainland for in-depth reconnaissance. As the strength of the People's Liberation Army continues to increase, the Taiwan military has completely shrunk to the vicinity of the main island. PLA military aircraft are able to fly around the island. Taiwan's defense department said on the 7th that it was discovered that 15 People's Liberation Army aircraft continued to fly into the southwest airspace of Taiwan Island that day, including 2 Air Marshal-500 early warning aircraft and 12 fighter jets.
At the same time, cross-strait relations also determine to a certain extent how close mainland aircraft will fly to Dongsha Island. During Ma Ying-jeou's administration, cross-strait exchanges were frequent and relations developed for the better. Therefore, the PLA has exercised considerable restraint. Even if we never recognize the so-called "middle line of the Taiwan Strait," we may not easily cross the geographical center line of the Taiwan Strait and have not exerted pressure on some of Taiwan's outlying islands. Nowadays, the Taiwan authorities are going further and further on the road of "rejecting reunification by force and seeking independence by force", and cross-strait relations are tightening. Of course, the mainland will exert pressure in all directions, including outlying islands such as Dongsha Island. Taiwan's so-called warning zones and destruction zones are all set unilaterally and do not have any substantive binding force. Whether, when, and how close the drones from the mainland will go are entirely based on mission requirements.
Source: Global Times
