Written / Tu Yanping Zhu Lin
Edited / Niu Heshang
Designed / Du Kai
Title picture / Li玥
“During the darkest days of the Model 3 project, I contacted Tim Cook to discuss the possibility of Apple acquiring Tesla (at 1/10 our current value). He refused to attend the meeting ” Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted this on December 22, Eastern Time.
On that day, Tesla’s market value was US$606.979 billion. In other words, there was an opportunity for Apple to acquire Tesla for approximately US$60 billion, but Apple rejected it. This is also the first time that Musk has disclosed to the outside world that he had tried to sell Tesla.
Escape from production hell
Although Musk did not specify the specific time when he asked for help from Apple, it can be speculated that it is most likely from the second half of 2017 to the first half of 2018. At that time, Model 3 was deep in production hell, and Tesla was on the verge of bankruptcy. .
At the Tesla Model 3 launch conference in July 2017, Musk made a bold statement: weekly production will reach 5,000 vehicles by the end of the year. However, as of the fourth quarter, less than 2,500 Model 3 vehicles had rolled off the assembly line.
Because production capacity cannot keep up and delivery is slow, Tesla is shorted by the capital market.
In March 2018, the credit rating company Moody's lowered Tesla's credit rating from B2 to B3 due to the severe shortage of Model 3 production capacity and the lack of liquidity faced by Tesla due to negative cash flow and the expiration of convertible bonds.
html In April, Goldman Sachs stated in a report that it was worried that Tesla would not be able to achieve the Model 3 production target by the end of June and recommended that clients sell Tesla shares.
Tesla’s financial report for the first quarter of 2018 showed that although revenue reached US$3.409 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%, its net loss was US$785 million, a year-on-year expansion of 97.7%, and free cash flow also increased from -US$277 million in the previous quarter. Expanded to -$1 billion.
There are endless voices from the outside world about Tesla’s bankruptcy. Musk himself also posted a tweet on April Fool’s Day to ridicule Tesla’s bankruptcy.
Musk took over the production department of Model 3 in April, slept in the Fremont factory in California, and devoted all his energy to increasing the production capacity of Model 3.
production capacity has been slow to increase. Musk analyzed that there are two obstacles. First, battery production capacity is insufficient and the production line has not yet been fully automated. The second is that there is too much emphasis on automation in vehicle manufacturing, resulting in troubles in welding, parts installation and automated assembly of battery packs.
To this end, Tesla adjusted the Gigafactory’s battery production line and flew six aircraft filled with robots and production equipment from Europe to California. At the same time, more labor was used to assist in assembly.
In order to rush the work, Tesla also built a third production line at the Fremont factory. This production line is in a large tent next to the factory. It is built with an aluminum frame and was built in only three weeks.
In the last week of the second quarter of 2018, of the 7,000 electric vehicles produced by Tesla, 5,000 were Model 3s. This weekly production target, although a year late, was finally achieved.
Mass manufacturing of automobiles is not an easy task, especially for cross-border car manufacturers. The production hell has made Musk suffer, but he has gained more.
Overcoming the second bankruptcy crisis
In addition to desperately increasing production capacity, Musk also strictly controls the company's costs.He wrote in an internal letter in April 2018 that "all project expenditures with accumulated expenses exceeding $1 million over the next 12 months should be suspended until they receive my express approval." Tesla Plan 2018 Annual expenditure reduction of US$400 million.
In order to save labor costs, Tesla has also laid off employees. In June 2018, more than 4,100 employees were laid off at one time, accounting for about 9% of the company's total headcount. The biggest impact at the time was the SolarCity division, for which Tesla closed many solar installation businesses.
In the end, Musk’s series of decisive actions saved the company.
Tesla’s 2018 financial report showed a net profit of US$139 million in the fourth quarter, the first time in history that it achieved profits for two consecutive quarters. Full-year revenue was US$21.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 82%, of which car sales revenue was US$17.632 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106.59%.
Musk said in a call to investors: "Last year was definitely the most challenging year in Tesla's history, but it was also the most successful year."
Later, in an interview with the media, he admitted that the company's performance in 2018 It faced severe death threats last summer and nearly went bankrupt just weeks before reaching its production target. Musk also admitted that those days were very painful and difficult. Outsiders can't imagine what they went through. "I feel five years older this year."
Musk, who has always been powerful, probably had the idea of selling Tesla to Apple during that time.
This is actually not the first time Tesla has faced a bankruptcy crisis. As early as 2008, Tesla was on the verge of bankruptcy when it caught up with the financial crisis.
At that time, Musk went to Daimler hoping to get a contract to save the company. Daimler executives agreed to inspect the Fremont plant first. The Tesla team spent less than 6 weeks modifying a smart into an electric car before the visit of Daimler executives. In the end, the car impressed Daimler executives. Daimler gave Tesla a $50 million investment to save Tesla.
Musk managed to survive the bankruptcy crisis in 2018 by himself and his team.
What doesn’t kill you will make you stronger.
In June 2020, Tesla surpassed Toyota to become the world's largest car company by market value. On December 21, the electric car manufacturer was officially included in the S&P 500 Index, becoming one of the most valuable components.
The real "Apple in the automotive industry" is coming
Going back to the beginning of the article, the background of Musk's tweet is that there is the latest news about "Apple building cars".
On December 21, 2020, Taiwanese media "Economic Daily" published an article stating that Apple has completed the assembly of the Apple Car prototype. Apple Car will be on the road in the United States as early as August 2021 and will be sold globally in 2022.
22, Reuters reported that Apple plans to launch and produce a passenger car in 2024, which may include self-developed breakthrough battery technology.
According to foreign media reports, a person familiar with Apple’s battery design said that the core of Apple’s strategy is a new battery design that may fundamentally reduce battery costs and increase the driving range of the car.
This is a unique single cell design that increases the number of single cells in the battery and frees up space inside the battery pack by eliminating bags and modules containing battery materials. Apple's design means more active material can be packed into the battery, giving the car a potentially longer range.
In addition, Apple is also studying the chemical composition of lithium iron phosphate batteries.
"This is a new level, like the first time you see an iPhone." This person said of Apple's battery technology.
Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani Daryanani said: "If Apple makes a breakthrough in batteries, this may be the impetus for Apple to eventually promote production, because battery cost is one of the main obstacles to mass adoption of electric vehicles."
And Musk said that Apple The single cells planned for use in its design "are electrochemically impossible because the maximum voltage is too low, 100 times lower" unless they are connected together.
On December 22, Apple’s stock price closed up 2.9% to US$131.88, and its market value increased by more than US$62 billion. Velodyne, which provides lidar sensor systems for Apple's test vehicles, rose 14% that day.
Since 2014, some progress has been reported about Apple's Titan project every now and then. However, Apple has only admitted that it is developing a car-based autonomous driving system and has never officially publicly admitted that it is building a car.
Taiwan's "Economic Daily" is conclusive, saying that Honghua Advanced Company is seeking cooperation with auto parts companies across Taiwan to prepare for the assembly of Apple cars. The company is a joint venture between Foxconn parent company Hon Hai and Yulon Motors.
reported that currently, Taiwanese parts companies such as Heda, Bizlian-KY, Heqin, and Tomita have entered Apple’s supplier list and received stocking requirements. It is worth mentioning that these companies are also suppliers of Tesla.
In the 18 years since its establishment, Tesla has brought unprecedented shock waves to the automotive industry and led a new wave of industry changes. It is known as the Apple of the automotive industry.
However, now, the real Apple car is coming.
Tesla's archrival
Even for Apple, building a car is a supply chain challenge. Apple has deep pockets and produces hundreds of millions of electronic products every year from parts sourced from around the world, but it has never built a car.
"If there's a company on the planet that has the resources to do this, it's probably Apple. But at the same time, it's not a phone." A person involved in the Titan project said.
Wall Street analysts say Tesla could be one of the biggest losers if Apple uses its considerable resources, brand appeal and operational logistics to enter the electric vehicle market.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said Apple "represents much stronger competition" to Tesla than the established car companies because Apple "has what we believe will be the future of cars." A key ingredient that is vital to the success of the industry.”
American CNBC financial expert Jim Cramer said: "We know that Apple likes to subvert the high-end market, and it cannot be bigger than the automotive industry. If anyone can compete with Tesla, it is That’s Tim Cook and his team at Apple.”
Threats from Apple have repeatedly led Musk to deny rumors of impending competition. For example, in 2015, Tesla's CEO was asked about Apple's alleged poaching of "key engineers" from Tesla.
"Important engineer?" he replied. "They hire people we fire. We always jokingly call Apple the 'Tesla Graveyard.' If you can't make it at Tesla, you go work for Apple. I'm not kidding."
currently leads Project Titan Doug Field, who handles daily operations, was Tesla's senior vice president of engineering and worked for Tesla for five years. Before joining Tesla, he worked at Apple for many years.
After years of research, Apple’s patented technology in the automotive field has covered many aspects such as autonomous driving, charging, vehicle systems, and vehicle body structure optimization.
In November this year, Apple released its self-developed chip M1. Some people say that the M1 chip is an important symbol of Apple's expansion from the mobile phone field to other fields, and that with slight modifications it can be used in car cockpits and autonomous driving.
The upcoming Apple Car will undoubtedly be Tesla’s formidable rival.
What if Apple had acquired Tesla?
There have been rumors of Apple acquiring Tesla. In 2018, when Musk claimed to privatize Tesla, someone once asked Apple shareholder Warren E. Buffett.
At that time, Buffett said, "It is a very bad idea to enter the automobile industry." He believed that selling cars is not an easy business. Apple has no first-mover advantage, and the automobile business will not give Apple a long-term advantage.
I don’t know if Buffett has changed his view now. If Apple starts building cars now, although it will lose its first-mover advantage, who dares to underestimate the late-mover advantage?
After years of cultivation of the automobile market by Tesla and its followers, China’s new car manufacturing companies, consumers are no longer unfamiliar with smart electric vehicle products. As a new attribute of smart mobile terminals, cars are recognized by more and more people.
Apple is now entering the market to build cars. Not only has it accumulated considerable technology, but the market has been educated by Tesla. With its brand potential, it is entirely possible to cause a dimensionality reduction blow to other car brands.
However, if Cook had accepted Musk’s invitation, and if Apple had really acquired Tesla, would everything have been different?
Automotive Business Review asked the leaders of several new domestic car-making forces for their opinions.
Some people say that Apple should have acquired Tesla. After the acquisition, Tesla would develop better without Musk. Some people also say that Cook’s traffic is far worse than Musk’s.
Another person in charge of a new car company said that he admired Musk the most for "having a fire in his heart" and "because of his personal IP and PR methodology, which has led to countless ridicules and is much more difficult than ours."
According to the Auto Business Review, Musk’s Twitter has the pride of “Yesterday you ignored me, today I will make it impossible for you to reach high.” However, confiscating Tesla does not necessarily mean that Tim Ku Gram "The beauty I missed in those years".
If Apple didn’t buy Tesla at that time, Apple must have its own considerations. One reason may be that Apple has made up its mind to build its own cars and will not acquire another car company, even if it is Tesla.
Apple, which once led the revolution in the mobile phone industry, will not miss the opportunity to personally participate in this revolution when cars become a new smart terminal.