South Korean President Yoon Seo-yeol After attending the NATO summit as an observer, he quickly made policy adjustments. According to Yonhap News Agency , on July 4, Yoon Seo-yeol asked his staff to implement the "economic security measures" mentioned at the NATO summit as soon as possible. After the news of
came out, some Korean companies linked Yoon Seo-ri's statement with the increasingly tense relationship between China and the United States, believing that South Korea is "moving closer to NATO " and began to rethink its business strategy in China. Some executives say large-scale investment decisions in China are being delayed until a decisive progress occurs in the deadlock between China and the United States. Some policy observers also said that after Yoon Seok-hyeon came to power, a series of foreign policies introduced successively strengthened relations with the United States and its allies, and as a "reward", the United States invited Yoon Seok-hyeon to attend the NATO summit.
Yin Seo-yeol and Biden
Is it possible for South Korea to join NATO?
South Korea is not a NATO member, but Yoon Seok-yeol was invited to send a more obvious signal to the outside world: NATO obviously wants to expand its sphere of influence to Asia, and South Korea, like Japan, is a very ideal target for absorption. Not only is it almost in line with the West in terms of political system, it is also the closest ally of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. The latter is also a leader of NATO, and its diplomatic relations with South Korea are also in a relatively strong position in the Asia-Pacific region. With the United States in the middle and making a connection, it seems much easier for South Korea to join NATO - the premise is that South Korea is completely decoupled from its close neighbor China at all costs, and this premise itself is very unrealistic.
Although South Korea is an important partner of the so-called " Indo-Pacific Strategy " in the United States, it has also developed quite strong economic relations with China. Data provided by the Korea International Trade Association shows that China accounts for one-quarter of South Korea's total exports. Other data from the General Administration of Customs of South Korea show that in 2021, South Korea's total exports to China reached US$301.5 billion from US$6.3 billion in 1992. From January to May this year, South Korea exported US$6.84 billion worth of goods to China, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. Not only that, on the issue of North Korea and South Korea, South Korea also relies on China's mediation in order to achieve a historic reconciliation with its neighbors in the north. Past experience has proved that the diplomatic assistance provided by the United States on the North Korea-South issue is actually relatively limited, and it is not an exaggeration to describe it as "helping worse".
Yong Seok-yeon was invited to attend the NATO summit
South Korea's future strategic position
Therefore, it is unrealistic for South Korea to completely "decouple" from China. Even if the relationship with the United States is strong, the United States and South Korea are separated by a Pacific Ocean. What's more, for a long time, the bilateral relations between the United States and South Korea have been difficult to describe as "equality". It is difficult for previous South Korean governments to avoid being influenced by the United States in policy making. If you want to get rid of the constraints of the United States and independently develop foreign policies, South Korea needs to establish good relations with neighboring countries, follow India, and gain many political and economic benefits for South Korea through sway between China and the United States.
From this point of view, Korean companies have made aware of Yoon Seo-yeo's government's thoughts and kept a distance from China cautiously. It seems to be a wise choice in the short term, but in the long run, it is completely meaningless. Because South Korean companies view Yoon Seo-hyeon's attendance at the NATO summit from the perspective of "sooner or later, the United States will decouple from China, and South Korea will follow the United States' footsteps." However, the United States itself may not have a strong desire to "decouple".
How to mediate between China and the United States will be the main problem facing the Yoon Seok-yue government in the future
An assistant who has worked in former president Moon Jae-in The government revealed that according to South Korea's observations, although Biden takes a tough stance against China, the United States does not want to "completely decouple" from China. This move will not only put the US economy into recession, but may even alienate the United States' original allies from the United States. After all, China is an indispensable major economy in the world. If we start from this perspective, even if the South Korean side uses the US attitude as a reference for its policy tone to China, it should not be "decoupling", but rather maintains "strategic ambiguity" on sensitive issues involving China.
