cover news reporter Xiong Yingying
was still lamenting last week that gold assets had finally ushered in a "highlight moment", and in the blink of an eye, a thrilling roller coaster market was unfolding.
Following the "flash crash" of nearly $130 the day before, spot gold continued to fall after the opening on August 12. It once fell to more than $1,870/ ounce during the session, a drop of more than 2%. The decline narrowed in the afternoon, and as of press time at 20:00, spot gold had rebounded to above $1,930 per ounce. After falling 5.81% in early trading, spot silver rebounded quickly in the afternoon, rising more than 5% again and currently trading at $25.324 per ounce.
Gold and silver prices have fluctuated violently recently, with sharp rises and falls becoming more common. What are the reasons behind this? What is the future trend of gold prices? In this regard, institutional researchers and industry experts have also given their opinions.
Why did the price of gold soar and plummet?
“Resonating at the same frequency” with the development of the epidemic
According to reports, Russian President Putin revealed on the 11th that Russia’s first new crown vaccine had been licensed and registered by the Ministry of Health that morning, and his daughter had been the first to receive it. Jiang Han, a senior researcher at
Pangu Think Tank, believes that if the vaccine is really effective and can be mass-produced at a low price, it will definitely bring unprecedented changes to the world. The global economic stagnation and economic stagnation caused by the new coronavirus The economic crisis will likely be ended suddenly, so since the economic crisis may end soon, there will also be problems with the supporting factors of gold prices.
On the other hand, there have been significant changes in the interest rates associated with gold as a safe-haven asset. Although the U.S. dollar has been decoupled from gold, gold has actually always played a clear role as a system of stabilizing value. If the dollar's depreciation trend continues, gold's rise will still play a certain role. However, Wind data shows that the 10-year U.S. bond yield has continued to rise from 0.52% to 0.59%. Through this indicator, it can be seen that the previous U.S. dollar inflation trend has changed to a certain extent. If this is the case, gold’s avoidance The risk value will decrease.
"Under the influence of dual effects, the value of gold is undergoing unprecedented changes, which is the core root cause of the collapse of gold." Jiang Han said.
Ding Meng, an economist at the Bank of China Hong Kong Financial Research Institute, pointed out that behind this round of sharp rises and falls is mainly the change in risk appetite, especially related to the development of the global epidemic. Although the global epidemic is still spreading, many European and American countries have actually begun an economic rebound. If this situation continues, the price of gold will lose its main upward momentum.
What is the future trend of gold?
The short-term trend has been dramatic.
has risen sharply, fallen hard, and rebounded quickly. Now it seems that investing in gold is all about the heartbeat. What everyone is more concerned about is, where will gold go after the sharp rise and fall?
Ding Meng pointed out that looking back on the last round of gold price rises and plummets, the rise in gold prices was due to the expectation that quantitative easing in the United States would bring about rising inflation, but in the end, European and American countries Inflation has always been at a low level, and gold prices have lost the fundamental basis for rising prices. In addition to changes in risk appetite this round, changes in inflation are another aspect to watch. If the global economy gradually recovers but inflation does not rise significantly, the price of gold will usher in a long decline.
Well-known financial commentators Guo Shiliang believe that the gold price trend is now at a historically high level, and it is inevitable that there will be a sharp shock trend in the short term, and profit taking will trigger price adjustments. The future trend of gold prices will depend on the Federal Reserve's subsequent easing policy attitude. The continued easing environment will affect the gold price trend. On the other hand, it will depend on when the turning point of the global epidemic will occur and whether the global economy can continue to pick up, which will affect the next step of global capital risk aversion.
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