Image source: Oriental ICh
Regarding the US stock market, there are three news that attract the attention of domestic investors the most.
is the first time the Dow Jones Industrial Average has stood at the 23,000 point mark, breaking the closing record for 51 consecutive times this year.
is today 30 years ago, that is, on October 19, 1987, when the US stock market plummeted, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 23% on that day. It is a market for leveraged risk arbitrage investors who "had to sell" stocks to meet margin requirements and mutual funds that "had to" deal with redemptions and sell stocks.
Third, the online consumer installment platform "Qudian", which was successfully listed in the US, rose nearly 22% on the first day, and Chinese stocks such as New Oriental and Alibaba have generally doubled their growth this year, which really made A-share investors envious.
is actually more than that. The main assets, houses and stocks of the American people are all hitting record highs, and the leverage of residents is still relatively low, and their stamina is still very strong. Some even joked that there were bubbles everywhere in the United States, except for houses.
Dow Jones Index rose above the 23,000 point mark for the first time
The US stock market rose overall yesterday, and all three major stock indexes broke the intraday record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 23,000 points for the first time, breaking the closing record for the 51st time this year.
Let’s experience the increase in Dow Jones Index over the past century. The strongest gene for the US stock market in a century is the long-term upward trend in nominal GDP. Only when the economy continues to grow can excellent enterprises be continuously explored and enjoy the dividends of the growth of great enterprises.
Today, 30 years ago, there are painful memories of the US stock market crash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 23% that day. Even so, the US stock market then rose almost crazy.
Dow Jones overall price-to-earnings ratio is not outrageous
Although it has risen so earth-shaking, its valuation level is still modest and low-key. The Dow Jones Index's price-to-earnings ratio is only 19.50 times.
Investing is to bet on national destiny. The most important part of investment actually comes from sufficient risk exposure, but this risk exposure must be in a long-term upward market. This is also why the "Stock God" Buffett comes from the United States, and even most of the global investment giants come from the United States. Only when you come from a long-term upward capital market can you become a great investor.
H shares , A shares, which one is a depression?
Today, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 552.67 points on the 19th, a drop of 1.92%, closing at 28,159.09 points. The main board transactions were HK$116.515 billion. Compared with the US stock index, the valuation advantage is very obvious.
At the same time, let’s look at the A-share market:
The historical high of the US real estate market
Success and failure are the real estate market! The U.S. housing prices have fully broken through new highs, and the highs of the subprime mortgage crisis have become history, and spring is far from over. The average price of real estate in the United States reached its lowest point in 2011, and has since rebounded from Shenzhen V and entered a healthy period of upward growth.
The real estate industry accounts for about 18% of the US GDP, which is crucial to the US economy. The real estate market is not only an important collateral, affecting corporate credit, but also as an important part of family wealth. The price of houses directly affects the family's mortgage and lending ability, affects the family's willingness to consume, thereby directly affecting US economic growth and further affecting future employment, income, and consumption. Is there any risk in
? Currently, the mortgage policy in the United States is very conservative today, with residents' leverage levels equivalent to around 2000. The basis for this round of house price increases is no longer an illusory financial tool, but a real money in the hands of home buyers.
The following figure is a comparison chart of adjusted US housing prices and Canadian housing prices:
Is there any bubble in the US housing market?
At present, the leverage ratio of US residents, which accounts for the majority of mortgage loans, , leverage ratio of , has dropped to its lowest level since 2000, which shows that the leverage ratio of the US real estate market has declined and the risk of real estate bubble is low.
When the speculative attributes of real estate far exceed the residential attributes, an important feature is that house prices often exceed people's payment levels.Before and after the 2004-2007 debt crisis, it was a typical example of the expansion of the real estate credit bubble. At that time, the intermediate price of houses for sale was far higher than the affordable intermediate price. People use leverage rather than fixed income to finance the purchase of real estate, which makes the home price higher than the actual ability to pay.
The U.S. unemployment rate hits its lowest level in 17 years
Not long ago, the U.S. had recorded 83 consecutive months of employment growth. On October 6, the U.S. Department of Labor released the employment data for September. The unemployment rate further fell to 4.2%, the lowest level since 2001, while the employment participation rate rebounded to 63.1%; hourly wages jumped to 0.5% month-on-month and year-on-year growth rate rose to 2.9%.
In addition, in September, the US ISM manufacturing PMI jumped to 60.8, a new high since May 2004; the non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 59.8, the highest level since July 2015.
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