During the National Day Golden Week, international oil prices "ignore" the US dollar index rebounded and continued to soar, reaching US$75.91 per barrel in the early morning of Wednesday, Beijing time.
Since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week, the US dollar index has continued to rise for five consecutive trading days, and has triggered a number of central banks around the world to raise interest rates one after another.
Guangzhou Daily (All-media reporter Jing Nan) During the National Day Golden Week, under the promotion of tight supply information, international oil prices "ignore" the US dollar index rebounded and continued to soar. They reached US$75.91 per barrel in the early morning of Wednesday, Beijing time, setting a new high since November 2014.
Compared with this, the correlation between international gold price and the US dollar index and the Federal Reserve policy has also been reduced. China Gold html The strong demand for jewelry trading in 3 weeks has driven international gold prices to rise for three consecutive trading days and returned to above the $1,200/ounce mark on Wednesday.
Oil price cannot be ruled out by the end of the year
Challenge the $100 mark, which may be
Under the leadership of gold and crude oil, the international commodity market has seen a general rise. Among them, London aluminum prices rose sharply for four consecutive trading days, and the market rose sharply by 3.32% this Wednesday. London copper and US soybeans have also risen for three consecutive trading days.
htmlThe influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on international oil prices at the end of September was relatively more important than the short-term, and it did not have a deep impact at that time and afterwards. Mainstream investment institutions in the oil market believe that from the end of 2017 to the present, the Fed's interest rate hike has entered the middle and late stages, and the policy lacks novelty, making it difficult to dominate the rise and fall of oil prices, and the core influence of international oil prices has returned to the supply and demand relationship. In other words, the financial attributes of oil prices have decreased and the commodity attributes have increased. The international gold market is still in the price pattern dominated by the US dollar index.For this reason, the supply and demand concerns since August have driven this round of rebound in oil prices.
In view of this, analysts from Huatai Futures Guangzhou Branch and Guangdong Qiankun Gold Co., Ltd. jointly believe that the basis for supporting the strong mid-line of international oil prices has not changed, and after the international oil prices have continuously broken through the resistance level, they have the momentum to attack the US$80 and US$90 marks. Oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward from October to November. If strong oil prices can be maintained until December, the end of the year-end holiday will come and the peak period for oil use will come, and the possibility of returning to the $100 mark cannot be ruled out.
Follow the Golden Week Paper crude oil Position building opportunities
For ordinary Chinese investors, high oil prices not only mean that cars have more money to refuel, but also means that many investment fields have ushered in new profit opportunities. Specifics include:
Opportunity 1: Opportunity to go long on paper crude oil. During the Golden Week, paper gold and paper crude oil are financial products that are still operational for 24 hours. International oil prices remain strong, and there are many opportunities to go long on paper crude oil, so you can pay appropriate attention.
Opportunity 2: The outlook for crude oil futures-related chemical sectors is positive. As international oil prices rise, multiple types of products in the Chinese futures market will be promoted. Crude oil futures will attract more institutional funds to settle in, and opportunities and risks coexist. Futures of multiple chemical products such as fuel and asphalt will also be promoted. After China's Golden Week, there is a possibility of a general rise in the chemical sector.
Opportunity 3: A shares energy sector has a chance to improve performance. The rise in crude oil prices will significantly increase the performance of A-share energy listed companies including CNPC and Guanghui Energy. For enterprises with a large number of oil fields, the investment value of the mid-term will increase.
(Guangzhou Daily All-Media Reporter Jing Nan)
(Editor: Robert)
