Judging from the performance of the international crude oil market in recent days, international crude oil has been rising continuously. As of April 18, international crude oil has risen for five consecutive years, and the corresponding change rate of international crude oil is a

Today is Tuesday, April 19, 2022, which is also the third observation day of this round of refined oil adjustment cycle.

Judging from the performance of the international crude oil market in recent days, international crude oil has been rising continuously. As of April 18, international crude oil has risen for five consecutive years, and the corresponding change rate of international crude oil is also relatively large.

According to the current trend of international crude oil, it is expected that there will be a high probability of an upward adjustment on April 28, when domestic refined oil products are adjusted.

Let’s first look at the trend of international crude oil.

On April 18, international crude oil continued the gains of the previous few days.

Among them, the price of Brent 6 crude oil contract rose by US$1.46, or 1.3%, to close at US$113.16 per barrel, and the intraday increase once exceeded 2%.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.26, or 1.18%, to close at $108.21 per barrel. The intraday increase was more than 2.4%. This price also hit a record The highest closing price since March 25.

And since April 12, international crude oil prices have risen for five consecutive years. Compared with April 11, the current price increase of Brent crude oil has exceeded 13%, and WTI has increased by more than 13.6%.

International crude oil trend analysis.

In recent times, the international crude oil bulls and bears have been anxious. However, in the recent period, the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine has faced more uncertainty, and the European Union is preparing to increase a new round of attacks on Russia. Affected by the sanctions, international crude oil rebounded rapidly.

Let’s first look at the bullish factors.

Judging from the actual performance of the current international market, the bullish factors for crude oil are slightly more than the bearish factors. These bullish factors are mainly reflected in several aspects.

1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may escalate.

The current situation between Russia and Ukraine in Ukraine has become more tense. In the battle situation in Mariupol , Russia has basically taken the advantage. At present, the periphery of the Azov Steel Plant has been occupied by Russia.

But there are still more than 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers and some mercenaries trapped in the Azov Steel Plant.

If these garrisons resist completely, we do not rule out the possibility that Russia will take a more intense offensive.

However, Ukraine also made it clear that if Russia annihilates the Ukrainian troops stationed at the Azov Steel Plant, future negotiations will become more difficult.

Therefore, the Azov Steel Plant will become one of the key factors in determining the situation between Ukraine and Russia. If the two sides cannot resolve the Mariupol issue well, oil prices may rise further once the conflict escalates in the future. The influence of

2, Libyan factors.

There have been some uncertainties in Libya in the past few days, which has affected oil exports at some ports. On the 18th, the relevant Libyan authorities have made it clear that they will not be able to supply oil and gas to Europe in the short term, which will further exacerbate the gap in the international crude oil market. .

3, the market has slowly digested the bad news about the release of oil reserves by IEA.

Some time ago, the International Energy Agency announced that it would release a large amount of oil reserves. This news directly caused the decline of international crude oil in the short term, with the price of Brent crude oil even falling below the US$100 mark.

However, after more than ten days of fermentation of this bad news, the market has slowly digested it. However, the market has also realized that once the International Energy Agency releases a large amount of oil reserves, it will lead to a decline in international oil reserves, and some countries will even drop to Historically low levels in recent decades, so in the long run, the release of oil reserves by the IEA will be a boon to the oil market.

4. Europe reduces the uncertainty of importing Russian oil.

Europe is currently preparing to take the sixth round of economic sanctions against Russia. Such economic sanctions include banks and oil. Judging from the current situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is not ruled out that Europe will accelerate its restrictions on Russian oil imports.

5, Iran Venezuela factors uncertainty.

Previously, some European and American countries took the initiative to improve relations between Iran and Venezuela in order to make up for the gap in the international crude oil market.

But this improvement is more likely to be a stopgap measure. In the end, Europe and the United States cannot completely improve their relations with these two countries.

For example, on April 18, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs mentioned that the United States had adopted a "delay policy" in the Iranian nuclear negotiations; in addition, according to analysis by Barclays Bank, any solution to the Venezuelan crisis and its impact on the country before the 2024 U.S. presidential election will No major change in policy seems likely, meaning Venezuela's oil export restrictions remain difficult to lift.

But compared to the positive factors, there have also been some negative factors in the international crude oil market in recent days.

1. Oil demand in major international consumer markets is weak.

Due to various factors such as changes in the international situation and repeated epidemics, the overall performance of the international economy has not been ideal in recent times. The economic growth of some major economies has slowed down significantly, and the corresponding demand for oil has also begun. Slow down.

For example, as one of the world's largest oil consumers, China's GDP growth rate was only 4.8% in the first quarter. Coupled with the recurring epidemic in many parts of China, China's demand for oil imports has also begun to decline.

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in March 2022, my country imported 42.71 million tons of crude oil, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, and the decline was 9.1 percentage points larger than that in January to February. In addition, in the first quarter, my country imported a total of 127.85 million tons of crude oil, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. down 8.1%.

This is equivalent to a reduction of about 6.9 million tons in my country's crude oil imports in March, with an average daily crude oil import reduction of about 220,000 tons. This can to some extent alleviate the gap in international crude oil demand.

2, the increase in crude oil production in China, the United States and other countries.

Against the backdrop of skyrocketing international crude oil prices, various countries are also increasing domestic crude oil production.

For example, in the past two months, China's domestic crude oil production has increased slightly.

According to National Bureau of Statistics statistics, China's crude oil production in March was 17.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%.

In addition, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast, U.S. shale oil is expected to increase by 132,000 barrels per day in May, reaching 8.65 million barrels per day.

Against the background of increased domestic crude oil in China and the United States, the trend of international crude oil gap will be further eased.

Therefore, based on the various influencing factors of the current international crude oil market, the positive and negative factors are relatively balanced. As for which aspect is more dominant, the key depends on the changes in the situation between Russia and Ukraine.

But overall, the international crude oil market is still at a high level and is expected to fluctuate between US$105 and US$120 in the recent period.

Domestic refined oil price forecast.

International crude oil has rebounded, achieving five consecutive rises in recent days, and judging from the trend on April 19, it is expected that there may be six consecutive rises.

Against the background of rising international crude oil prices, domestic refined oil products are expected to rise accordingly.

As of April 18, 2022, the second observation day of this round of refined oil adjustment cycle, the change rate of international crude oil is approximately 9.5%. The corresponding domestic refined oil is expected to increase by 450 yuan per ton, which is equivalent to an increase in No. 90 gasoline per liter. About 0.34 yuan.

However, this round of refined oil adjustment cycle has only passed two observation days, so this data does not represent the final data.

Moreover, judging from the performance of the international crude oil market in recent times, negative factors have also begun to rise, especially against the backdrop of declining imports from some major crude oil consuming countries such as China. We do not rule out that international crude oil prices may stop rising in the future. If prices fall, the increase in domestic refined oil prices may be smaller.