Summary
Basic logic:
Profit:
① Domestic production areas have completely stopped cutting, and northern production areas such as Vietnam will also gradually transition to the stop period, and the overall supply of natural rubber will decline.
② Inventories in Qingdao continue to be destocked and the absolute volume is less than 300,000 tons. Low inventories will continue to support glue prices.
Negative:
① The recent weather conditions in Thailand's production areas have been good, and the impact of La Nina weather is temporarily limited. New rubber output is still expected to increase during the peak production season.
② As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, under the dual pressure of shipments and inventory, tire companies are expected to gradually suspend production and take holidays, and the demand for natural rubber will weaken before the holiday.
We believe that the supply and demand situation of natural rubber is relatively weak before the holiday due to the expected increase in new rubber output during the peak production season in Thailand and the decline in demand caused by the suspension of production and holidays by cruise companies. However, the inventory in Qingdao remains depleted and the absolute volume remains. At a low level below 300,000 tons, rubber prices will continue to be supported by low inventories. On the whole, we expect that the overall natural rubber operation before the holiday will be mainly shock adjustment; in the mid-term, as the main production areas gradually enter a comprehensive shutdown and the downstream enterprises resume work and production, the demand will rebound, and the phased mismatch between supply and demand will form. Supported by rising and low inventories, rubber prices are expected to be strong again by then.
operation suggestions: recommends that RU2205 wait and see in the short term. Focus on the vicinity of 14,300 yuan/ton at the bottom and 15,000 yuan/ton at the top, or sell high and buy low within the range, pay attention to controlling positions and making stop losses.
Uncertain risks: The global epidemic situation, weather conditions in Southeast Asian production areas, tire companies' start-up status, and inventory changes in Qingdao
Market review
Double rubber futures prices fluctuated and fell in the first half of this week. Prices rebounded sharply on Friday. During the week All losses were recovered. As of January 7, the main natural rubber contract RU2205 of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 14,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton from December 31; the main natural rubber contract NR2203 of the last energy No. 20 rubber closed at 11,780 yuan/ton, An increase of 65 yuan/ton from December 31. In terms of
spot prices, the domestic spot prices of latex and No. 20 rubber showed a volatile trend. As of January 7, the spot price of all latex in Shanghai was 13,900 yuan/ton, and the average price during the week was 13,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous week; the spot price of all latex in Shandong was 13,900 yuan/ton. , the average price during the week was 13,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous week. As of January 7, the spot benchmark price of STR20 in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was US$1,810/ton, and the average price during the week was US$1,784/ton, an increase of US$15/ton from the average price of the previous week.
Second supply and demand fundamental analysis
1. Tire production starts declined month-on-month, and companies are about to suspend production and holidays.
Affected by the New Year's Day holiday, tire production starts declined month-on-month in the first week of 2022; as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, companies are under dual pressures of shipments and inventory Production shutdowns and holidays will gradually begin, and tire production forecasts will further decline in the later period. In the week of January 6, the weekly operating rate of domestic all-steel tires was 51.52%, a decrease of 10.3 percentage points from the previous week, and a decrease of 4.19 percentage points from the same period in 2021. The weekly operating rate of semi-steel tires was 60.47%, a decrease of 10.3 percentage points from the previous week. A decrease of 3.2 percentage points and an increase of 4.53 percentage points compared with the same period in 2021.
2. The retail sales of the passenger car market in December rebounded from the previous month
According to the latest data from the Passenger Car Association, in the fifth week of December 2021 (27-31), the average daily retail sales of the passenger car market was 109,200 units, which was higher than that in November 2021. It was up 5% over the same period and down 9% from the same period in 2020. According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, the overall retail sales of domestic passenger cars in December will reach 2.157 million units, with a daily average of approximately 69,600 units, an increase of 19% from November and a decrease of 6% from the same period in 2020.
3. Futures inventories remain accumulated, and inventories in Qingdao continue to decline
As of January 7, the natural rubber futures warehouse receipt inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 215,510 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from December 31, and an increase of 52,840 tons from the same period in 2020; Shanghai Energy The No. 20 TSR futures warehouse receipt inventory is 64,784 tons, an increase of 4,960 tons from December 31, and an increase of 17,086 tons from the same period in 2020. Last week, natural rubber stocks in Qingdao continued to maintain a destocking trend.According to Zhuochuang Information, as of December 31, 2021, the total inventory of natural rubber samples in Qingdao was 284,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous month, setting a new inventory low since the fourth quarter of 2018; of which the inventory in the bonded area was 65,600 tons, a decrease from the previous month. There was a slight decrease of 0.5 thousand tons in the previous week, and the general trade inventory was 218.6 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.92 thousand tons from the previous week.
4. Raw material prices in the Hat Yai market continue to rise
As of January 7, the price of glue in Hat Yai, Thailand, was 53 baht/kg, and the weekly average price was 51.58 baht/kg. The average price increased by 3.45 baht/kg from the previous week; cup glue The price is 47.05 baht/kg, and the weekly average price is 46.73 baht/kg, which is an increase of 1.1 baht/kg from the previous week's average price.
Three price difference analysis
1. Natural rubber futures price difference (spot-futures)
From January 4 to January 7, the price difference between the main natural rubber spot and futures contracts fluctuated between 1,690 yuan/ton and 2,105 tons; the average price difference during the week It was 1,925 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton from the week before the holiday. On January 7, the current price difference of natural rubber futures was 1,690 yuan/ton, which was 415 yuan/ton narrower than the previous trading day.
2. Natural rubber intertemporal price difference (RU01 contract-RU05 contract)
From January 4 to January 7, the price difference between the RU2201 contract and the RU2205 contract fluctuated between -260 yuan/ton and -325 yuan/ton; the average price difference during the week It was -292.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.5 yuan/ton from the week before the holiday. On January 7, the price difference between natural rubber 1-5 was -325 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
3. Price difference between all latex and No. 20 rubber (all latex - No. 20 rubber)
From January 4 to January 7, the spot price difference between all latex and No. 20 rubber fluctuated between 2362.7 yuan/ton and 2533.56 yuan/ton; weekly The average price difference was 2,452.78 yuan/ton, narrowing by 57.7 yuan/ton from the previous week. On January 7, the spot price difference between full latex and No. 20 rubber was 2,362.7 yuan/ton, which was 143.72 yuan/ton narrower than the previous trading day.
From January 4 to January 7, the price difference between the main contract of natural rubber and the main contract of No. 20 rubber fluctuated between 3,040 yuan/ton and 3,130 yuan/ton; the weekly average price difference was 3,086.25 yuan/ton, narrowing by 110.75 yuan from the previous week. Yuan / ton. On January 7, the price difference between the main contracts of latex and No. 20 rubber futures was 3,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
Four market outlook and investment strategy
In terms of supply, domestic production areas have gradually entered a cut-off period, and Vietnamese production areas will also transition to a cut-off period from mid-January. The supply of natural rubber will gradually decline. The recent weather conditions in Thailand's production areas are still unclear. However, La Nina weather has temporarily limited rubber tapping operations in the production areas. In terms of demand, the overall domestic tire production has declined slightly. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, wheel companies are expected to gradually suspend production and holidays under the dual pressure of shipments and inventories. The demand for natural rubber before the holiday weakens. In terms of inventory, the natural rubber warehouse receipt inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange continues to maintain an accumulation trend, but the absolute amount of inventory is still at a low level; inventory in Qingdao continues to maintain a destocking trend. Due to the limited increase in cargo arrivals in the near future, it is expected that the inventory will remain low. Will continue to form support for natural rubber. In the short term, we believe that the supply and demand situation of natural rubber is relatively weak before the holidays due to the expected increase in new rubber output during the peak production season in Thailand and the decline in demand caused by the suspension of production and holidays by cruise companies. However, inventories in Qingdao remain depleted and The absolute volume is still at a low level of less than 300,000 tons, and glue prices will continue to be supported by low inventories. On the whole, we expect that the overall natural rubber operation before the holiday will be mainly shock adjustment; in the mid-term, as the main production areas gradually enter a comprehensive shutdown and the downstream enterprises resume work and production, the demand will rebound, and the phased mismatch between supply and demand will form. Supported by low inventories, rubber prices are expected to be strong again by then. The strategy
recommends RU2205 to wait and see for the short term. The bottom will focus on around 14,300 yuan/ton, and the top will focus on around 15,000 yuan/ton. Or sell high and buy low within the range, and pay attention to control. positions and make stop losses.
This article comes from CFC Energy Chemicals Research
