Dry bulk freight rates: On July 11, the coal freight rate in Samarin, Indonesia reached US$11.87/ton in Guangzhou, China, which was -0.4% compared to last Friday and -14.2% year-on-year;

Liu Bowen

Investment consulting license number: Z0014252

Shipping/container capacity

[Important information]

1. Bulk freight rates: On July 11, Indonesia’s Samarin coal freight rate reached US$11.87/ton in Guangzhou, China, compared with last week Five -0.4%, -14.2% year-on-year; the freight rate of grain from Santos, Brazil to northern China ports is 63.3 US dollars/ton, -0.4% compared to last Friday, -8.8% year-on-year; the freight rate of iron ore from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao, China The price was US$30.13/ton, which was unchanged from last Friday and +14.3% year-on-year.

2. Container freight rate: SCFI container freight index for the week of July 9 was 4143.8, -1.4% month-on-month, +5.4% year-on-year, of which the Shanghai-US West container freight rate was US$7,116/FEU, -3.0% month-on-month, +41.6 year-on-year %; Shanghai-Europe container freight rate is 5,697 US dollars/TEU, -0.6% month-on-month and -15.5% year-on-year.

3. On July 11, the latest data released by the People's Bank of China showed that at the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 258.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and the growth rate was higher than that at the end of last month and the same period last year. 0.3 percentage points and 2.8 percentage points. New RMB loans in June were 2.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 686.7 billion yuan year-on-year; the increase in social financing scale in June was 5.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.47 trillion yuan over the same period last year.

4.Kpler data shows that Russia’s seaborne coal exports were 16.45 million tons in June and 16.56 million tons in May, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and 3.8% respectively.

[Market Outlook]

Containers, on the demand side, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global high inflation, demand-side pressure in European and American countries is gradually emerging. The recent economic recession is expected to strengthen, and short-term freight rates are still relatively weak. However, congestion at European ports has intensified recently, and container freight rates are still expected to rebound seasonally. However, due to the impact of rising inventories in Europe and the United States and declining demand, it is not appropriate to be optimistic about the rebound.

In terms of dry bulk cargo, orders on hand are still at a low level, and dry bulk carrier shipping capacity cannot be significantly increased in the short term. In terms of demand, short-term demand for imported thermal coal from China remains sluggish, and with the arrival of the rainy season, demand from Indian buyers is sluggish, putting pressure on short-term shipments. However, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe still has a demand for coal, which supports coal demand. In terms of iron ore, short-term shipping demand in Europe is weak due to the profit losses of steel mills and the reduction pressure brought by policy-based production restrictions in China in the second half of the year. However, weak infrastructure in China and Europe in the second half of the year is expected to shape demand for iron ore. Definitely support. In terms of grain, global grain transportation demand is generally stable, and the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to promote grain exports. Short-term freight rates are expected to continue to fluctuate, and with the arrival of the peak dry bulk shipping season in the third quarter, dry bulk freight rates are expected to bottom out and rebound.

Soybean/meal

[External market situation]

The overnight CBOT soybean index fell 0.7% to close at 1,415.98 cents/bu, and the US soybean meal index fell 1% to close at 406.5 US dollars/short ton.

[Related information]

1.USDA Crop Growth Report: As of the week of July 10, the excellent and excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 62%, analysts estimated 64%, 63% the previous week, and 59% in the same period last year;

2.USDA : As of the week of July 7, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 356,700 tons, which was revised to 437,300 tons the previous week and the initial value was 355,000 tons. In the same period last year, the export inspection volume of U.S. soybeans was 201,100 tons. So far this crop year, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume has totaled 52.1741 million tons, compared with 57.79 million tons in the same period last year;

3.Abiove: Soybean production in 2022 is expected to be 125.8 million tons, compared with the previous forecast of 125.5 million tons. Soybean crushing volume reached a record 48.3 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous estimate. Soybean exports are estimated at 76.8 million tons, down 200,000 tons from the previous estimate. Soybean meal exports are estimated at a record 18.5 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous estimate. Brazil soybean oil exports in 2022 are estimated at 2.15 million tons, previously forecast at 2 million tons;

4. My agricultural products: In the 27th week of 2022, soybean inventories at major oil mills across the country increased, while soybean meal inventories and unexecuted contracts both declined. Among them, soybean stocks were 5.4964 million tons, an increase of 37,600 tons from last week, an increase of 0.69%, and a decrease of 1.2889 million tons, or 19%, from last year. Soybean meal stocks are 1.0477 million tons, a decrease of 26,700 tons, or 2.49%, from last week, and a decrease of 120,500 tons, or 10.32%, from last year.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: The monthly supply and demand report will be released soon, but overall, the market has already reflected the decline in export transactions. It is expected that the negative impact has been gradually diluted. The weather model shows that it is dry, but it is also not too significant. Driven by the rise, it is recommended to partially close the early long orders and mainly take in the subsequent dips;

2. Arbitrage: M91 and RM91 are set, M-RM09 spread band short ;

3. Options: It is recommended to continue to hold the bearish bull market spread position. Buy M2209-P-4200 and sell M2209-P-4100 at the bearish bull market spread and hold it. Buy RM2209-P-3800 and sell RM2209-P-3650 at the same time and hold the bearish bull market spread (the opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for buying and selling)

Oils and fats sector

[External disk impact]

Cbot The main price of US soybean oil rose 1% to 61.3 cents/pound; BMD was closed for the day.

[Important information]

1.ITS (estimate): Malaysia From July 1st to 10th, palm oil exports fell 20.47% month-on-month to 330,310 tons.

2. Weekly oil and fat stocks ( Bangcheng ): Palm oil stocks are 264,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 55,000 tons; soybean oil stocks are 853,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 27,000 tons; vegetable oil stocks are 199,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6,000 tons.

3. The rapid growth of biofuel production in the United States has greatly affected the U.S. oil and fat market, and the demand for raw materials has increased significantly accordingly, mainly reflected in soybean oil, animal fats, palm oil, and corn oil. In recent months, domestic consumption of rapeseed oil has been heavily backlogged due to tight supply. U.S. oil imports continued to grow to a new high of 405,000 tons in May. In 2021-22, U.S. cumulative oil imports rose to a record high of 2.45 million tons. Import growth was mainly reflected in palm oil and rapeseed oil.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: Although the B35 firewood policy will be implemented on July 20, the negative impact caused by the short-term Indonesia expansion pressure is still fermenting. In addition, international crude oil prices have experienced rising resistance after a brief rebound. In the early stage, short long positions are recommended to leave the market, and it is recommended to focus on short short positions at high positions. In the medium term, the profit and loss of continuing short selling is relatively poor. Although the domestic purchase volume was large in the early stage, the actual arrival at the port may not be as expected. Palm oil consumption will recover after the soybean-palm price difference expands. The spot property of the 09 contract will become stronger in the future and a phased rebound may be possible. . Overall, the short-term and medium-term space is limited.

2. Arbitrage: Continue to pay attention to the y91 package (structure transfer is not supported).

3. Options: Pay attention to the secondary point price strategy of oil. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)

Corn/Corn Starch

[Important Information]

1. According to CONAB, a national commodity supply company affiliated with the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, as of July 9, Brazil’s first crop of 2021/22 The corn harvest rate was 96.6%, compared with 95.1% last week and 96.4% in the same period last year. Brazil's second crop corn harvest rate in 2021/22 is 39.8%, compared with 28% last week and 20.9% in the same period last year.

2. The U.S. corn growth rate is 64%, the market expectation is 65%, it was 64% the previous week, and it was 65% in the same period last year; the silk spinning rate is 15%, it was 7% the previous week, it was 24% in the same period last year, five years The average value is 25%; the wax maturity rate is 2%, compared with 3% in the same period last year, and the five-year average is 3%. The growth rate of spring wheat in the United States is 70%, the market estimate is 67%, compared with 66% the previous week and 16% in the same period last year; the heading rate is 44%, compared with 20% in the previous week and 81% in the same period last year, five years ago The average is 77%.The U.S. winter wheat harvest rate was 63%, market estimates were 68%, compared with 54% the previous week, 57% during the same period last year, and the five-year average was 61%.

3. As of the week of July 7, 2022, the export inspection volume of U.S. wheat was 309,802 tons, which was revised to 272,940 tons the previous week, and the initial value was 111,830 tons. In the week of July 8, 2021, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume was 429,316 tons. So far this crop year, U.S. wheat export inspections have totaled 1,922,570 tons, compared with 2,337,780 tons during the same period last season. The U.S. wheat crop year begins on June 1.

4. As of the week of July 7, 2022, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 933,725 tons, which was revised to 876,386 tons the previous week, and the initial value was 676,824 tons. In the week of July 8, 2021, the U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1,002,342 tons. So far this crop year, U.S. corn export inspections have totaled 49,227,453 tons, compared with 59,294,132 tons during the same period last year. The U.S. corn crop year begins on September 1.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: U.S. corn is entering a critical pollination stage. Dry weather may affect production. As the remaining grain is gradually consumed, the spot price is expected to gradually stabilize and strengthen. There are signs of weakening in the short-term macro impact, and it will return to the logic of supply and demand. , the futures price may rebound and repair.

2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening price difference of starch corn in 09.

3. Options: Sell c2209-P-2640 and sell c2209-C-2840, or sell c2209-P-2800. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)

pigs

[Market information]

1.. Spot quotation: The purchase price of pigs fell steadily yesterday evening. Among them, the Northeast region is 21.8-22.4 yuan/kg, which remains stable compared with yesterday; the North China region is 22.4-23 yuan/kg, which is stable than yesterday; the East China region is 22-22.8 yuan/kg, which is 0.8 yuan/kg lower than yesterday; the South China region is 22.4-25.4 yuan/kg. /kg, a steady decrease from yesterday; Southwest 21.2-21.8 yuan/kg, down 0.8 yuan/kg from yesterday;

2. Piglet and sow price: As of the week of July 7, the price of 15 kg piglets was 743 yuan/head, lower than yesterday It rose by 99 yuan last week, and the price of a 50 kilogram sow was 1,829 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan from last week;

3. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs : The "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" on July 11 was 120.38, an increase of 1.46 points, "Vegetable Basket" "The product wholesale price index was 120.98, an increase of 1.71 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 29.68 yuan/kg, up 2.4%; beef 77.40 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton 66.76 yuan/kg, up 2.0%; eggs 9.65 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; white strip chicken 18.17 yuan/kg, up 1.4%. The average price of 28 types of vegetables under key monitoring was 4.49 yuan/kg, up 2.3%;

4. Pig Network : Wang Zuli, an expert on pig industry monitoring and early warning from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that the recent rapid rise in pig prices is mainly due to the two days before the Spring Festival. The price of live pigs fell every month, and there was no price rebound near the Spring Festival. This abnormal phenomenon caused farmers to be reluctant to sell during the Spring Festival. According to the practice in previous years, a large number of pigs will be slaughtered before the Spring Festival and less after the New Year. Therefore, the slaughter volume after the New Year this year is higher than in previous years.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: Although the spot price of live pigs has been lowered recently, in the short term, the contradiction between market supply is still relatively prominent. The price of pigs may not fall deeply, and we will mainly wait for the low point to attract long positions;

2. Arbitrage : Wait and see (the above opinions are for reference only, not as a basis for entering the market)

chicken

[Important information]

1. White feather broiler: The mainstream quotation in front of the Shandong white feather broiler shed last night was about 4.70 yuan/jin, with a price increase of 2-5 cents. It is expected that the price in front of the shed in Shandong will be stable tonight, with the mainstream quotation in front of the shed in Shandong being 4.70 yuan/jin. (My Agricultural Products Network)

2. White-feathered broiler chicks: On July 12th and July 13th, the price of white-feathered broiler chicks from Shandong Dachang was 2.80 yuan/bird, and the transaction price of Shandong Zhongda Factory’s chicken chicks was 2.40-2.60 yuan/bird, small factory The transaction price of chicks is 2.30-2.40 yuan/bird.(My Agricultural Products Network)

3. Segmented products: On July 11, the price of white feather segmented products was overall stable. The price of frozen large breasts in East China and North China was 10.7-11.0 yuan/kg, which was +0.2 yuan/kg month-on-month.

4. Zhuochuang Information : From July 1st to July 7th, Zhou Zhuochuang Information monitored a total of 50.228 million white-feather broiler sample companies emerging, with a month-on-month increase of 5.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.34%.

5. Zhuochuang Information: The average operating rate of key domestic white-feather broiler slaughtering enterprises in the week from July 1st to July 7th was 55.76%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.88 percentage points; the average storage capacity rate of frozen products was 66.00%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.06 percentage points.

6. Zhuochuang Information: In June, 404 million feathered chickens were slaughtered, -5.2% year-on-year. From January to June 2022, the total slaughter volume of white-feathered broilers was 2.261 billion birds, -3.5% year-on-year.

[Market Outlook]

Farmers have recently become more enthusiastic about restocking. Last week, 50.22 million white-feathered broiler chicks emerged, an increase of 5% from the previous month. Since chicken restocking next week can avoid being released in the dog days of summer, the willingness to restock is expected to continue to increase. . On the consumer side, the national epidemic prevention and control policies have been relaxed, and the rise in pig prices has been conducive to the recovery of downstream consumption of chicken. However, the epidemic has recently rebounded locally in Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shanghai, and the school holiday has gradually entered. The group meal channel is expected to be affected. suppress. In terms of raw chickens, although the sales of raw chickens increased in June, the overall level was still lower than the same period last year. The slaughter volume of raw chickens in June was 404 million, -5.2% year-on-year. Subsequent sales are expected to gradually recover, and the operating rate of slaughterhouses is still at a low level. Boosted by pig prices, short-term price fluctuations of raw chickens are expected to be the main concern. In the second half of the year, supported by high feed costs and rising pig prices, the price of raw chickens is expected to rise, but the overall price will remain high and volatile.

eggs

[Important information]

1. Spot: Egg prices continued to rise in most areas across the country yesterday, with the average price in the main production areas being 4.46 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas being 4.61 Yuan/jin, up 0.28 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. Today, egg prices across the country have increased steadily. Prices in the Beijing market have increased. The wholesale price of mainstream Shimen, Xinfadi, , Huilongguan and other mainstream products is 197 yuan/44 jins, which is 4 yuan higher than yesterday's price. As of 7 o'clock in the morning, the total arrival on the Great Ocean Road is 6 cars, the arrival is normal, the goods are sold generally, the mainstream wholesale price is 195-200 yuan/44 pounds, which is basically the same as yesterday's price. Today, prices in Liaoning and Jilin in Northeast China have increased, and egg prices in Heilongjiang are stable; mainstream prices in Shandong are stable, egg prices in Henan are stable, prices in Shanxi and Hebei have increased, prices in Hubei have increased, prices in Jiangsu and Anhui have been stable, and local egg prices have fluctuated. Egg prices continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with normal supply.

2. Zhuochuang data: The number of laying hens in the country in June 2022 was 1.181 billion, an increase of 0.25% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%, in line with expectations. In June, the monthly emergence of layer hen seedlings from sample companies monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for 50% of the country) was 35.98 million birds, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.

3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens eliminated in the country's main production areas in the week of July 8 was 14.42 million, a decrease of 5.5% from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information’s monitoring statistics on the 5-day age of culled chickens in key production areas across the country, the average age of culled chickens in the week of July 7 was 503 days, 1 day more than the previous week.

4. According to Zhuochuang data: Egg sales in representative sales areas nationwide in the week of July 7 were 7504.6 tons, an increase of 3.2% from last week.

5. According to Zhuochuang data: In the week of July 7, both production link inventory and circulation relief inventory decreased. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.39 days, a decrease of 0.07 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.88 days. A decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous week.

6. Yesterday, the price of culled chickens in the main production areas across the country increased, and the price of Tao chickens in most main production areas across the country increased. The average price of Tao chickens in the main production areas was 6.24 yuan/jin, which was 0.23 yuan/jin higher than the price on the previous trading day.

[Operation Suggestions]

1. Unilateral: On the egg supply side, the number of eggs in production was still relatively low in June. The number of eggs continued to recover but at a slow pace. However, the egg production rate dropped due to hot weather. Overall, the egg supply was acceptable. On the demand side, peak season consumption for the Mid-Autumn Festival will begin in July, and catering and tourism consumption will increase after the epidemic prevention and control is relaxed. Recently, spot egg prices have risen significantly. The price of pork has risen sharply recently, and the price of Taobao chicken has also increased. It is expected that the substitute role of eggs will increase, and stocking for the peak consumption season will begin, and the spot price of eggs will continue to rise. In terms of futures, the commodity has generally fallen recently, and the market transaction feed cost has been reduced. The September contract has dropped to a minimum of around 4300. This price corresponds to the lower expected future inventory and has a strong supporting effect around 4300. However, the spot price of eggs has recently begun to rise. The surge in pork prices has boosted egg consumption, and it is recommended that you consider opening long positions on dips.

2. Arbitrage: From a statistical perspective, we can consider long September and short November. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)

white sugar

[Important information]

1. A survey of 10 analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights showed that sugar production in key areas of central and southern Brazil in the second half of June is expected to be 2.5 million. tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%. In the survey, sugarcane crushing volume in the second half of June is estimated to be between 41 million and 46.9 million tons. The average estimated value is 42.6 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%. In the second half of June, the weather in the central and southern regions was conducive to crushing. As of July 1, about 250-255 sugar mills were active. Weather conditions in the second half of June were very favorable, allowing sugar mills to maximize their crushing capacity. The proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production is expected to be 45.3%, down from 47.6% in the same period last year. Brazilian producers tended to produce ethanol during the early stages of the harvest, but are now expected to start switching more cane to sugar production. The sugarcane sugar yield rate (ATR) is expected to be 137.3 kg/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%.

2. Export data released by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) showed that Brazil exported 929,500 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of July, with an average daily export volume of 154,900 tons, which was 11.22% higher than the average daily export volume in July last year. Ten thousand tons increased by 38.06%. In July last year, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.4687 million tons.

3. The Russian Sugar Producers Union said on Friday that the first tests of Russian beet this year showed that the average root weight of the beet was 93 grams, compared with 101 grams in July last year.

html The spot quotations on 34.11 were basically stable. Only a few groups' quotations were mixed, with the adjustment range being 10-20 yuan/ton. Although futures prices rebounded slightly, the market trading atmosphere remained cautious, and spot transactions were generally average.

[Trading Strategy]

1. Unilateral: Domestic futures prices have continued to correct, and the late price has been significantly discounted to the spot. As the domestic temperature rises, consumption will gradually increase, the late spot price is expected to gradually strengthen, and short-term macroeconomic shocks show signs of weakening. , Zheng Tang has the possibility of rebound and repair.

2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to Baitang 91 regular set.

3. Options: Sell SR209-P-5900. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)

cotton - cotton yarn

[External disk impact]

The main overnight ICE US cotton contract really ended lower, with the December contract falling 0.79 cents/pound (-0.83%) to 94.93 US dollars cents/pound.

[Important information]

1. The U.S. cotton production report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on July 11 showed that as of July 10, 2022, the U.S. cotton budding rate was 57%, an increase of 13 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 13 percentage points from the same period last year. An increase of 4 percentage points, one percentage point lower than the average of the past five years. The U.S. cotton boll rate is 22%, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous week, an increase of 7 percentage points from the same period last year, and an increase of 4 percentage points from the average of the past five years. The growth status of US cotton reached good or above, accounting for 39%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week and 17 percentage points lower than the same period last year.This year's U.S. cotton quality rate is very poor, at a low level in recent years. The lower quality rate may ultimately affect the output and quality of U.S. cotton.

2. Yesterday, cotton spot trading was slightly light. The market was dominated by lower basis resources, and most fixed-price resources were priced but not available. The cotton spot price basis is temporarily stable. On 21/22, Xinjiang machine-picked 3129/28B miscellaneous 3~3.5% lower basis is still CF09+700~850. Commercial sales of 21/22 Xinjiang machine-picked 3130/29~30B miscellaneous 3%, the basis difference was sold at 950~1000, Xinjiang internal warehouse; there is a small amount of cotton commercial sale 21/22 Xinjiang machine-picked 3128/28B miscellaneous 3~3.5% The sales basis is CF09+600~750, and the price is in Xinjiang’s warehouse.

3. In early July, Xinjiang's Korla region continued to have high temperatures, which was conducive to the growth of the flower and boll period. It is understood that the flowering and boll stage is an important period in the life of cotton that requires the most nutrients. It is also a critical period that determines cotton yield and quality. So far, local cotton is growing vigorously, and farmers are carrying out irrigation and topping work in an orderly manner. According to the current growth trend, the cotton picking period in Korla City this year may be about a week earlier than last year.

[Operation suggestions]

1. Unilateral: The current cotton spot price has fallen to a low price. Domestic cotton prices are significantly lower than abroad, but orders from downstream textile mills are still few. The start-up rate of textile companies is low, and the profits of textile companies are hard to see and touch. Without quantitative support, it is difficult for the downstream to form purchasing power. Moreover, the Fed's interest rate hike expectations are strong, and the general trend of commodities is weakening. It is expected that the general trend of Zheng cotton will also be maintained. The trend is volatile and weak. It is recommended to open short positions on rallies and pay attention to whether the September contract can effectively fall below near 16,000. Although the Xinjiang cotton rotation policy was announced on Friday, the policy was basically within the expected range. It was slightly positive at the beginning of the announcement, but it may be negative after the profits are exhausted. The general trend of cotton yarn is the same as that of cotton.

2. Arbitrage: The internal and external arbitrage considers short US market and long Zheng cotton.

3. Options: In the short term, it is recommended to consider buying put options on and . (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)

peanuts

[Important information]

The domestic peanut market was relatively strong yesterday. In the past two days, the shipment of goods in the Northeast market has accelerated, traders are obviously willing to raise prices, and the quotations of food peanuts have been slightly increased by 0.05-0.10 yuan/jin. In other production areas, it is common to report high prices and low prices, and the quotations are relatively confusing, mostly based on the holders' willingness to ship. Looking at different production areas, the price of 308 rice in Northeast production areas is 4.75-4.80 yuan/jin, and some good products are quoted at 4.90 yuan/jin. The price of currency rice in the Baisha production area in Henan is 4.50-4.70 yuan/catty, and the price of large peanuts is 4.45-4.60 yuan/catty. The transaction price depends on the quality; the price of currency rice in the Shandong production area is 4.30-4.50 yuan/catty. The arrival volume of oil plants remains at a low level. The transaction price of Luhua currency rice is 8,600-9,000 yuan/ton. At Luhua factory, only Laiyang and Fuyu factories are started. The other factories have all been shut down and will remain shut down temporarily. Continuously collecting status.

Peanut Oil: The domestic peanut oil market is running weakly, and the bean rice dumplings have rebounded slightly, but the negative impact still exists. At present, there are few inquiries for peanut oil, and the downstream market is still mainly waiting and seeing, with very few new transactions. Most oil mills are executing early orders, but delivery of early orders is slow. In terms of price, the current domestic average price of first-grade ordinary peanut oil is 17,000 yuan/ton; the market quotations of small-pressed strong-flavor peanut oil vary, with the mainstream quotation being 19,000 yuan/ton.

[Operation Suggestions]

Unilateral: Peanuts fluctuated today, and the spot price was strong, raising the margin of safety. It is recommended to gradually build a position and go long 01 contract in the range of 9600-9800.

html March spread: The 10 contract is the delivery of old peanuts, causing futures to return to the spot. In view of the price difference between old and new peanuts, the 10-1 price difference may go lower. It is currently believed that the monthly difference is in a volatile range, and the -300 point does not have the motivation to continue falling. Short orders entered near 0 in the early stage can temporarily stop profit and leave the market, and re-position when the correction is between -100-200.

futures strategy: The basis difference is at -300. There is no profit margin after removing the delivery cost, but there is still room for growth in the peanut market. You can choose a higher point to operate at the right time. Stay on the sidelines for now.