Who will win the 2020 U.S. presidential election: Trump is most likely to be re-elected

The 2020 US presidential election is currently in full swing, and many candidates have also appeared one after another. Many people want to know who will ultimately win the presidential throne. Personally, I think the one who is most likely to win is, it should be said, the current president Trump most likely .

Trump: I am still quite sure about the 2020 presidential election.

First of all, purely from the perspective of support rate, The current support rate of the current US President Trump should be the highest among all candidates . Although many polls show that Trump's current support rate does not guarantee his re-election success, after all, among all candidates, Trump does have the highest support rate. And based on the experience of the 2016 election, many Trump supporters generally do not clearly state that they will support Trump, but will only vote for Trump when voting. How many of these voters are there? Are they the "silent majority" or the "silent minority"? Whether they will become an important force in Trump's re-election in the 2020 election is difficult to say, but the existence of these voters It is indeed beneficial to Trump’s re-election bid. Therefore, Trump’s support rate needs to be weighted, that is, adding percentage points based on the support rate in the poll. From this perspective, Trump’s actual support rate may be higher than the support rate derived from polls. In other words, Trump’s support rate, at least for now, is still higher than that of other candidates.

Trump’s support rate since taking office

In comparison, Trump’s support rate is still the highest among all candidates

Secondly, Relatively speaking, Trump has a complete campaign platform and his policy measures After four years of implementation, it has been fully demonstrated to American voters. This is Trump’s advantage as the sitting president . Although other candidates have put forward their own campaign platforms, upon careful analysis, it is not difficult to find that their campaign platforms and policy propositions are not as complete as Trump's. In other words, among all the current presidential candidates, Trump has the most complete campaign platform and his policy propositions are most familiar to the American people. Whether and how to implement them has been demonstrated for one term. Compared with other candidates, Said, already relatively mature. In fact, among the Democratic presidential candidates who are most likely to be Trump's opponents, everyone may remember who they are and what they have done before, but relatively few people remember their specific policy propositions. You’ll know as much as you know about Trump’s policy propositions. In a sense, many people vote for , which they are relatively familiar with.

Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election, former Vice President Joe Biden

Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election, Senator Bernie Sanders

Democratic candidate for the 2020 US presidential election, Senator Elizabeth Warren

These are the three candidates who are most likely to threaten Trump among the many candidates in the Democratic Party. I don’t know how many people will understand the policy propositions of these three as well as Trump’s policy propositions. In a sense, Their policy propositions are not as clear and well-known as Trump's. Third, so far in the 2020 US presidential election, Trump has raised the most campaign funds. Although raising the most funds does not necessarily mean that you will be elected president, raising less campaign funds will definitely not lead to a successful campaign. In a sense, the US presidential election is a money game, comparing who has the strongest financial resources (of course not your own money, but the campaign funds raised). If you raise more campaign funds and spend the money well, it will naturally be easier to get elected. And , judging from all the current candidates, Trump still has the advantage over in terms of raising and using campaign funds.

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Fund raising and use of Republican candidates participating in the 2020 US presidential election

Fund raising and use of Democratic candidates participating in the 2020 US presidential election (the background color is gray to indicate that they have withdrawn from the election))

From both parties in the United States Judging from the fundraising and use of campaign funds by the major candidates, Trump has raised almost twice as much money as Sanders, the candidate who has raised the most among other candidates; at the same time, Trump has also used far more funds than All other candidates

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Finally, campaign strategy also has a greater impact on the presidential campaign . Relatively speaking, looks at all the candidates currently participating in the 2020 presidential election. Trump’s campaign strategy is the most mature and most consistent with his campaign strategy . The current campaign strategy of Trump's campaign team is based on Trump's own controversial extreme white conservatism tendency as a selling point, and intentionally amplifies this image of Trump, such as calling out Democratic minority women Congressmen, tell them to "get out" of the United States. Another example is attacking constituencies where the Democratic Party has traditionally had an advantage and where there are a large number of minority voters. Doing so will indeed "lose" some votes to Trump, but these are the votes that Trump would not have been able to get in the first place. This part of the vote will be "lost", but it will consolidate Trump's own governing base, that is, voters who also have extreme white conservative tendencies. It should be said that Trump’s campaign team is well aware of Trump’s strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, Trump’s campaign team does not expect Trump to become the “president of all people.” Instead, it pragmatically positions Trump as a right-winger. A conservative president. In other words, the Trump team is taking advantage of and expanding the degree of social and political divisions in the United States as a campaign method, with the goal of allowing Trump to get the part of the votes he should get, while strategically giving up those fundamental It’s impossible to vote for Trump. On the other hand, other candidates have not been as thorough and pure as Trump, but they still focus on pleasing as many voters as possible .

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Brad Parscale

Parscale spoke at the event in December 2018

Parscale is currently the campaign manager for Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign and was the digital media director for Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign

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Therefore, From the perspective of campaign platform and policy propositions, campaign funds raised, campaign strategies, etc., Trump has done much better than his opponents in the 2020 US presidential election, at least Trump’s The campaign has developed a strong image of an incumbent seeking re-election, which is a huge advantage over other candidates. It is precisely because of this that Trump's actual approval rating is the highest among all candidates. From this perspective, Trump’s chances of succeeding in re-election in the 2020 presidential election are still relatively high, and the possibility of another term is still relatively high. Therefore, after the 2020 presidential election, the next president of the United States is most likely to be Trump .

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