The Paper reporter Hou Jiacheng
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the U.S. CPI in June was 9.1% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since November 1981, and the previous value was 8.6%. The core CPI in the United States increased by 5.9% year-on-year in June, compared with the previous value of 6%.
U.S. inflation data in June that exceeded market expectations once again confirmed the Federal Reserve's fast-paced interest rate hike path. The market had previously expected that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points at this month's interest rate meeting. It would be the fourth time the Federal Reserve raised interest rates this year. It had previously raised interest rates by 25 basis points, 50 basis points, and 50 basis points respectively in March, May, and June. basis points, 75 basis points.
In the face of unexpected inflation data, the U.S. dollar index rose in response, while US stock futures and European stock markets fell in response.
data shows that the price increases in the United States in June were widespread: among them, the increases in gasoline, housing and food indexes were the biggest drivers of CPI increases in June. The energy index rose 7.5% month-on-month, accounting for nearly half of the price increase. The gasoline index rose 11.2%, and other major component indexes also rose. In June, the food index increased by 1.0%, and the household food index also increased by 1.0%.
Core CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.7% month-on-month in June, higher than the 0.6% month-on-month increase in the previous two months. While nearly all major component indexes rose in June, the biggest pull items were housing, used cars and trucks, health care, motor vehicle insurance and new cars. At the same time, the indexes for motor vehicle repair, clothing, home furnishings, household products, and entertainment activities also increased.
Looking at energy prices year-on-year, the energy index in June rose by 41.6% year-on-year. Among them, the gasoline index rose 59.9% year-on-year, the largest increase since March 1980. The electricity index increased by 13.7% year-on-year, the largest increase since April 2006. The natural gas index increased by 38.4% year-on-year, the largest increase since October 2005.
Looking at the month-on-month basis, the energy index rose by 7.5% month-on-month in June after a month-on-month increase of 3.9% in May. The gasoline index increased by 11.2% month-on-month, compared with the previous value of 4.1%. (Before seasonal adjustments, gasoline prices rose 9.9% month-on-month in June.) The natural gas index rose 8.2% month-on-month in June, the largest monthly increase since October 2005. The electricity index also increased by 1.7% month-on-month in June.
In terms of food prices, the food index rose by 10.4% year-on-year in June, the largest increase since February 1981. On a month-on-month basis, the food index rose by 1.0% in June, and the household food index also rose by 1.0%. The index has increased by at least 1.0% for six consecutive months. Among them, the index of butter, sugar and confectionery increased significantly. The cereals and bakery products index rose 2.1% in June, while the flour index rose 5.3%. The dairy and related products index rose 1.7%. The fruit and vegetable index rose 0.7% month-on-month in June, following a 0.6% increase in May. The non-alcoholic beverage index rose 0.8% month-on-month. The only major grocery sub-index to decline was the meat, poultry, fish and eggs index, which fell 0.4% month-on-month in June, mainly due to declines in the beef and pork index.
Market forecasts for the federal funds rate in September
According to CME Group's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of a 100 basis point interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's July interest rate meeting has risen sharply, reaching 46.4%; the probability of a rate hike is 75%. The probability of one basis point dropped to 53.6%. As for the federal funds rate in September, the market currently predicts that the probability of it rising to the range of 3%-3.25% is higher than 50%; this means that after raising interest rates by 75 basis points in July, the Fed will likely increase interest rates again in September. interest rate of 75 basis points.
Editor in charge: Zheng Jingxin Picture editor: Shi Jiahui
