[Text/Observer Network Columnist Xu Shicheng]
On October 2, the first round of elections for Brazilian ended. The left-wing Labor Party (PT) candidate and former president Lula won a vote of 48.43%, ranking first; the current president and Liberal Party (PL) candidate Bolsonaro won a vote of 43.20%, ranking second, with the two winning votes being 5.23%, about 6.186 million votes apart.
Former Brazilian President Lula appeared at the polling station. Source: Visual China
In the House of Representatives (513 seats in total, all re-elected) election, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party won 99 seats, ranking first, and the Labor Party won 68 seats, ranking second. In the Senate (81 seats in total, 21 seats were re-elected) elections, the Liberal Party added 8 new seats, accounting for 14 seats, ranking first; the Labor Party ranked fourth. The Liberals and their Coalition hold 355 seats in the House and 47 seats in the Senate, both of which are dominant.
The first round of elections was held in a calmer atmosphere. Bolsonaro is quite satisfied with the results of the first round of elections because his vote rate far exceeds the forecasts of many polling agencies.
Lula and Bolsonaro will win a victory in the second round of elections on October 30. Judging from the current election situation, Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) who won the third place (4.16%) in the first round of elections and Ciro Gomes, who won the fourth place (3.04%) in the Brazilian Labour Party (PDL) candidate Ciro Gomes has made it clear that he will support Lula in the second round of elections.
On October 7, 2022, Brazil, São Paulo, Brazil, candidate Simone Tebert (left), who won the third place in the first round of Brazilian President elections, greeted former President Lula da Silva, who participated in the re-election campaign. Source: Visual China
Lula may win in the second round of elections, but it is hard to say that Lula is sure to win. Lula is reorganizing the election alliance, focusing on winning votes from the middle class and entrepreneurs; while Bolsonaro has committed to paying 600 real (about 120 US dollars) relief funds to 20 million poor families in advance from October 11 to 25, so as to win over lower-class residents to support him in victory. If Lula wins by a slight advantage, Bolsonaro will likely not recognize the election results, and there is a possibility of turmoil in Brazil.
Lula's foreign policy toward the United States
As one of the presidents of the first left-wing wave in Latin America, Lula pursued a pragmatic diplomatic style during her term (2003-2011) and adopted a "fight without breaking" policy against the United States. On the one hand, Lula opposes the United States' hegemonic policy and opposes the United States' sanctions on Cuba , Venezuela and other countries. He opposes the United States' invasion of Iraq , and has conflicts and differences with the United States on issues such as agricultural product trade and the establishment of America Free Trade Zone .
Lula is closely related to Cuban leaders who oppose the United States, Castro , Venezuelan President Chavez, Bolivia President Morales and Iran Former President Ahmadinejad. He actively created League of South American countries and actively participated in BRICS countries, Sao Paulo Forum, World Social Forum , Southern Common Market and other activities.
It is also because of the opposition from Lula, Chavez and some other leaders of left-wing Latin America that the idea of establishing the American Free Trade Area on January 1, 2005 has finally failed to become a reality.
On the other hand, he maintained a relationship of "cooperation and contradiction" with the United States. He visited the United States three times in 2003, 2007 and 2009, and met with Bush Jr. and Obama . Bush Jr. also visited Brazil twice in 2005 and 2007, and signed cooperation documents such as the "Memorandum of Cooperation on Brazil and the United States Biofuels" with Brazil. Lula is critical of the US hegemonic behavior, but avoids direct conflict with the US.
In recent years, Lula has made many remarks on Pakistan-US relations.
On June 8, 2021, he told the reporter of " Russia Today " that Brazil is a sovereign country and Brazil should not rely on the United States. "Brazil does not need the United States to be a 'mentor'", "We must be our own masters, and we do not need to obtain the permission of the United States."
On August 23, 2022, Lula stated that if he is elected president, he will change his relationship with the United States, will not use a "weak" tone to the United States, and will implement a "positive and arrogant" policy towards the United States. Through foreign policy, Brazil will restore its status as a major power in the world, strive for Brazil's "accomplishment" ( Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council ), expand international trade agreements, restore "South-South Cooperation" with Latin America and Africa, strengthen the Southern Common Market, rebuild the Association of South American States, and revitalize the Latin American Community and the BRICS countries.
He said during the campaign: "I will restore Brazil's relations with all European countries, with South America, South Africa, China, Arab countries and the United States."
During his visit to Mexico in March this year, he actively promoted his governing philosophy and propositions and prepared for a comeback. Before announcing his campaign for president, Lula quietly sent his special envoy, former Secretary of Defense and former governor of Bahia and Senator Jaques Wagner to meet with U.S. State Department officials at Washington .
Lulla advocates that Brazil "must establish a strategic partnership with China, just like when I was president. If it is necessary to cooperate with Russia, we will cooperate with Russia. The United States cannot interfere in China's foreign relations, nor can it interfere in China's development."
He highly praised China's achievements and development under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, and affirmed the rapid development of Pakistan-China relations during the Labor Party's rule, especially the rapid development of Pakistan-China economic and trade relations. But in August this year, Lula said in a speech that China has put Brazil at risk of " deindustrialization " by exporting finished products, and he is afraid of China's participation in the Brazilian economy.
The relationship between the current President Bolsonaro and the United States
Bolsonaro has been very close to the United States since Bolsonaro took office as president of Brazil in 2019 to January 20, 2021 Trump step down and Biden become president of the United States, Bolsonaro has had a close relationship with the United States in the past two years.
Bolsonaro is a loyal follower of Trump. Their ruling philosophy and style are also highly consistent. Therefore, Bolsonaro is called "Trump of Brazil."
After Bolsonaro won the election, Trump congratulated Bolsonaro at the first time, and Bolsonaro has never stinged with admiration and praise for his "idol" Trump himself. It can be said that the high degree of consistency between the two in the field of ideological and the mutual appreciation and mutual appreciation between them provide strong support for the closer ideology of Meiba.
After taking office, Bolsonaro broke the Brazilian president's practice of using neighboring country Argentina as his first visit, and chose the United States for the first time and visited the United States four times in less than two years. He had a strong desire to get close to the United States.
Bolsonaro and Trump Source: Internet
In March 2019, when he met with Trump for the first time, Bolsonaro said that this visit to the United States was the beginning of a new era of friendship between Pakistan and the United States, and greatly appreciated Trump, and even expressed his support for his construction of the wall and his immigration policy.
Bolsonaro said that Pakistan and the United States "shall share respect for tradition and family, respect for God and the Creator, and oppose political correctness, gender ideology and fake news."
Subsequently, Bolsonaro announced a series of friendly policies to the United States, including unilaterally giving visa-free treatment to American tourists; implementing tariff-free quotas for 750,000 tons of wheat imported from the United States every year; providing the United States with Alcantara base in Maranion State in northern Brazil, so that the United States' desire to launch US satellite in Brazil for many years can realize; allowing Boeing in the United States to purchase shares in the regional aircraft division of Embraer ; establishing a $100 million mutual fund to absorb investment in the Amazon River Basin, etc.
Trump praised the Bolsonaro administration's series of pro-US behaviors, and positively evaluated the US-Pakistan relations, believing that the US-Pakistan relations are at the best period in history. He also vigorously promoted US-Pakistan military and technical cooperation and granted Brazil the status of " non-NATO major ally ".
Faced with the threat of the new crown epidemic, Bolsonaro firmly followed Trump's approach, fought the epidemic passively, and personally promoted the unproven anti-epidemic drug hydroxychloroquine , which has unproven efficacy recommended by Trump. Even after Brazil became a hard-hit area of the new crown epidemic, Bolsonaro still insisted on putting the economy above his life, which can be said to have implemented the "Trump anti-epidemic policy" to the extreme.
Source: Global Times
In addition, Bolsonaro follows the United States in many international affairs, such as: withdrawing from the United Nations Global Compact on Immigration ; giving up the special and differential treatment of developing countries in the negotiations on WTO ; supporting the United States to launch a military strike against Iran; giving up Brazil's long-term "two-state solution" position on Pakistan-Israel conflict , and completely turning toward the United States' ally Israel. However, Bolsonaro's concessions to the United States did not receive corresponding returns from the United States. Even so, the Bolsonaro administration has not changed its position to approach the United States at all.
When it comes to the left-wing government of Maduro in Venezuela and Cuba, Bolsonaro only follows the lead of the United States. Bolsonaro did not recognize the legal government of Maduro, which was re-elected in 2018, and recognized the interim president of Venezuelan opposition leader Guaido , which was supported by the United States in January 2019 as the "legal" president of Venezuela; in November 2019, when the 28th meeting of the 74th UN General Assembly voted to decide whether the United States should be asked to lift the embargo on Cuba, a total of 187 votes were in favor, 3 votes (the United States, Israel and Brazil) opposed, and 2 votes (Colombia and Ukraine) abstained. This is the first time in 26 years that Brazil has voted against the United Nations' discussion on the issue of US sanctions against Cuba.
This move by Bolsonaro government is obviously to please the United States, but it undermined the tradition of Latin American countries in holding the same or similar positions in the United Nations vote, and also caused Brazil to suffer unreasonable costs and losses in terms of diplomacy and international reputation.
In March 2019, Brazil and seven other right-wing South American countries announced the establishment of the South American Progress Forum (Prosur), an integrated organization aimed at opposing the left-wing Venezuela and Bolivia. Its goal is to replace the Union of South American States (UNASUR), which was founded during Lula's tenure in May 2008. On April 15, the Bolsonaro government announced its official withdrawal from the League of South American countries.
On January 16, 2020, the Bolsonaro government announced that Brazil decided to stop participating in activities in Latin America and the Community of Caribbean Countries (CELAC). In October of the same year, during Biden's first debate with Trump for president, Biden said that he would convene countries to provide $20 billion to Brazil to protect the Amazon rainforest. Biden also stressed that if Brazil does not stop destroying rainforest policies, it will face serious "economic consequences." Bolsonaro expressed dissatisfaction with Biden's statement.
In response to this, Bolsonaro warned Biden without apology: "I recently heard a presidential candidate from a certain country say that if I don't put out the fire in the Amazon rainforest, he will raise the trade barrier against Brazil . How should we deal with it? Diplomacy is not enough. When the language is no longer effective, there must be gunpowder." "You must know that (Amazon rainforest) is ours."
When Biden confirmed his election as US president, Bolsonaro once firmly believed in Trump's statement that "there is fraud in the US election." After Biden officially took office as US President, the number of interactions between the US and Pakistani heads of state has been very rare, and the relationship between the two countries has once cooled, which is in sharp contrast with Trump's administration.
After Biden took office, he regarded hot issues such as environmental protection, climate change, and human rights as priorities in his political agenda, claiming that he would make policy adjustments to Brazil in many aspects, which once put a lot of pressure on the Brazilian Bolsonaro government.
In more than a year since Biden was in power, the Pakistan and the United States have made positive statements on bilateral relations, and the Bolsonaro administration's attitude towards the Biden administration has gradually improved. On April 22 this year, Bolsonaro attended the video conference of the Global Leaders' Climate Summit held by the United States at the invitation of Biden, which greatly eased Pakistan-US relations and sent a signal that bilateral relations would return to the right track.On the eve of the climate summit, Bolsonaro wrote a public letter to Biden, promising to terminate illegal logging by 2030, achieve carbon neutrality by by 2050, and increase funding for the Ministry of Environment and environmental supervision agencies in an attempt to improve the negative image previously caused by environmental problems.
In terms of health care, the United States promised to provide Brazil with $20 million in treatment drugs in early May, and delivered it in cooperation with the Pan American Health Organization to continue donating vaccines to Brazil.
The Biden administration also conducts dialogue with Brazil on the premise of pragmatic cooperation and does not adopt "offensive diplomatic measures" against Brazil. Brazil is still an important ally of the United States. Brazil's current Foreign Minister Franza has a moderate and pragmatic diplomatic attitude, and strives to maintain an alliance with the United States and avoid conflicts with the United States on key contradictions in US-Pakistan relations such as environment and climate change.
President Bolsonaro's attitude towards the United States has greatly eased, and Pakistan-US relations have returned to normal after the short-term cold experience. Brazil, as one of the world's important economy and the most populous country in Latin America, is a medium for dialogue between the United States and Latin American countries. It plays a leading role in promoting dialogue between the north and the south within the Americas. Its important position is self-evident.
Data photo: Brazilian Foreign Minister Carlos Franza
The 9th Americas Summit this year, Brazilian President Bolsonaro attended the summit at the invitation of Biden and held a meeting with US President Biden. This meeting is the first personal meeting with Bolsonaro since Biden took office 18 months ago, so it is generally considered "symbolic".
The two delivered speeches on hot topics in US-Pakistan relations such as environmental protection, Brazilian election, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and pragmatic cooperation. Although Bolsonaro told the media after the meeting that the meeting effect was "exceeded expectations", the interaction between the two did not produce an ideal "chemical reaction".
During the meeting, Bolsonaro said he supported Brazil in exploiting natural resources and refused other countries to provide assistance to the Amazon region. He told Biden: "Brazil protects its territory very well, but often feels that our sovereignty in that region ( Amazon ) is under threat."
In February this year, on the eve of Russia's special military operation against Ukraine, Bolsonaro visited Russia. Russian media gave positive comments on Bolsonaro's visit, but some media in the United States, Europe and Brazil believe that this visit is "inappropriate" against the background of tension in Russia and Ukraine.
Bolsonaro's visit to Russia aroused dissatisfaction with the United States. Brazil remained neutral in the resolutions of international organizations such as the United Nations and refused to impose sanctions on Russia, and clearly expressed its disagreement with the practice of collective sanctions by Western countries on Russia. Brazil's move has its decision-making considerations that weigh the pros and cons.
Overall, I believe that no matter what changes will happen in the US political arena in the future, whether the Democratic Party continues to rule or whether the Republican Party takes office in , , Brazil will still be the focus of the US diplomacy to Latin America, and the United States will also be the focus of Brazil's diplomacy.
Basomolaro's Pakistan-China relations during his tenure
Bolsonaro made some inappropriate remarks during his 2018 campaign for president. He once said that China is not purchasing in Brazil, but is "buying the entire Brazil", believing that Brazil should not allow Chinese companies to own Brazilian land or control key industries.
But after being elected president, some important changes have begun to take place in China.
In 2018, he told Li Jinzhang, then Chinese Ambassador to Brazil that Brazil attaches great importance to developing relations with China and regards China as a great partner. After taking office as president, Bolsonaro said in a meeting with Ji Bingxuan, the special envoy of President Xi Jinping and vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress who went to Brasilia to attend his presidential inauguration ceremony, saying that China and Brazil are both great countries, and the new Brazilian government attaches great importance to cooperation with China and is willing to make every effort to promote Brazil-China relations. The prospects for cooperation between the two countries will surely become better and better.
During Bolsonaro's tenure, Brazil's relations with China have also experienced turmoil in terms of issues such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic and 5G technology. Senior Brazilian far-right government officials represented by the son of the Brazilian president, federal representative Eduardo, Brazilian Minister of Education, Foreign Minister, etc. have made many remarks and attacked China, creating unfriendly noise for the development of bilateral relations.In response to these remarks, the Chinese Embassy in Brazil promptly refuted and severely condemned them, maintaining the overall situation of friendship between bilateral relations.
At the same time, the cooperation between the two countries in the fields of joint anti-epidemic, economic and trade exchanges and cultural exchanges has highlighted. On January 25, 2021, President Bolsonaro posted two tweets in a row, one of which said he would like to thank China for giving Brazil the active ingredients that can be used to produce the new crown vaccine . The content of another tweet is, "Thanks to the Chinese government for its compassion and the efforts of ministers."
In recent years, China and Pakistan have taken care of each other's fundamental and long-term interests and responded to global challenges in unity and cooperation, and made progress in bilateral relations. Bilateral trade has exceeded 100 billion US dollars for four consecutive years, and China has maintained its position as Pakistan's largest trading partner for 13 consecutive years.
In 2021, the total import and export trade between China and Brazil was US$164.063 billion, and increased by 36.2% year-on-year. Among them, China's total exports to Brazil were US$53.614 billion, and China's total imports from Brazil were US$110.449 billion. Brazil's trade surplus with China is US$56.835 billion. In the first half of this year, the total import and export trade between China and Brazil was US$82.269 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%. Brazil is China's largest investment destination in Latin America. Between 2010 and 2020, Chinese investors invested $65.7 billion in Brazil.
On May 23, 2022, China Vice President Wang Qishan co-chaired the sixth meeting of the China-Pakistan High-Level Coordination and Cooperation Committee with Brazilian Vice President Morran in Beijing via video. On June 23, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted the 14th BRICS Leaders' Meeting in Beijing via video, and Brazilian President Bolsonaro attended and delivered a speech.
Bolsonaro stressed that the strategic partnership between Pakistan and China has been promoted, bringing welfare to the people of both countries, and the cooperation between the two countries during the COVID-19 pandemic is proof.
If Bolsonaro is elected president in the second round of elections on October 30, it can be foreseeable that after he takes office as president in January next year, he will still maintain friendly and cooperative relations with China, Brazil's largest trading partner, although there will be some contradictions and differences with China on some issues. If Lula is re-elected as Brazilian president, it can be foreseeable that Brazil's relations with China will be better than Brazil-China relations during Bolsonaro's tenure.
Some people believe that both Lula and Bolsonaro show certain "anti-American" characteristics. In my opinion, whether Lula or Bolsonaro is elected president, the future Brazilian government will not pursue an "anti-American" policy. There will be some contradictions and differences between Brazil and the United States, but neither Brazil nor the United States will regard each other as their enemies.
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