[Energy people are watching, click on the upper right corner and add 'Follow'] The change value of U.S. crude oil inventories has increased for 11 consecutive weeks. The increase in the value of U.S. crude oil inventories last week far exceeded expectations, which limited the inc

[Energy people are watching, click on the upper right corner and add 'Follow']

The change value of U.S. crude oil inventories has increased for 11 consecutive weeks. The increase in the value of U.S. crude oil inventories last week far exceeded expectations, which limited the increase in oil prices to a certain extent. The market sent It is hoped that production cuts will be reached at the OPEC+ meeting, and international oil prices will stop falling and rise again. As of today, the rise in the PE market has slowed down, and some brands have begun to fall. has fallen by 25-100 yuan/ton.

PE market price trend chart

Judging from the inventory of the two oils polyolefin , the strategy of actively reducing prices and destocking is still adopted, following the futures market. As of yesterday's closing, the futures market has begun to fall , and the spot market has begun. The price of some petrochemicals continued to move towards the high end after shocks and consolidation, and there is still a possibility of rising.. From the perspective of petrochemical inventory control, it is currently maintained relatively well, but in terms of absolute values, petrochemical inventories are still on the high side.

PE futures price trend chart

Two oil polyolefin inventory trend chart

In terms of supply, as of last week, the production load of PE petrochemical companies was at 93.79%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.59%, and the supply volume has shrunk slightly. PE production started as of yesterday. From the perspective of product structure, linear production is temporarily stable. The proportion of low-pressure hollow, injection molding and wire drawing production has decreased, while the proportion of low-pressure film and low-pressure wire drawing has increased.

PE production proportion trend chart

In terms of inventory, the spot price has touched the coal chemical cost line, driving some merchants in the market to open positions. In addition, domestic PE companies will start annual overhauls one after another in April and reach the peak of maintenance in May. Sales pressure on the supply side of the industry may slow down. It is expected that the supply-side inventory of the domestic PE industry will show a downward trend in the follow-up of , and the PE inventory has eased . The overall demand for

PE is relatively stable. The start-up of downstream factories has remained stable, and PE agricultural film has reached a peak recently. At present, the start-up of pipe companies is slowly increasing, and the rest are mainly stable. However, due to the rapid price increase of , some demand has been suppressed, and still insists on using at any time. In addition, China's export orders have dropped, and demand has also dropped significantly. However, driven by the rebound in futures, terminals are more willing to cover their positions at low prices.

PE downstream start-up status

PE inventory changes

In summary, the postponement of the OPEC+ meeting may cause market concerns about whether oil-producing countries can reach a joint production reduction agreement, and the absolute value of domestic two-barrel oil and petrochemical inventories is still high, and downstream demand has not yet fully recovered. There has been a certain suppression on prices, but domestic petrochemical companies have a strong willingness to raise prices, and strong spot prices have provided some support for prices. The focus of the market outlook will be whether the OPEC+ meeting can reach an agreement on production reduction agreement.

● Today's Market Analysis

PE

In the current domestic PE market, the market remains on the sidelines, and the offer prices remain volatile. Some brands fell, with a decline of 25-50 yuan/ton.

influencing factors

⚫ PE upstream dynamic status

As of yesterday, Asian ethylene offers remained stable, with CFR Northeast Asia at US$410/ton; CFR Southeast Asia at US$380/ton.

⚫ PE device dynamics

⚫ The market outlook is forecast

International oil prices have rebounded, and the market mentality has improved. However, the trading atmosphere in the polyethylene spot market has weakened yesterday afternoon. It is expected that the polyethylene spot market will remain on the sidelines today, and the offer price will remain unchanged. Shock.

● PE predicts that

terminal factories will maintain rigid demand in the next three days, high prices will be slow to follow up, and the overall economic situation is still fragile. It is expected that the market rebound will basically end, and the gains will be digested by shocks. Of course, we still need to be wary of fluctuations in the external market.

Editor has something to say

• At present, crude oil/futures are rebounding, domestic polyethylene plants are gradually entering the maintenance season, and multiple positive factors have driven the market to pick up. However, the spread of the global epidemic has not stabilized yet, international oil prices have not yet made clear the production cut, and domestic downstream agricultural mulch films have entered the off-season, and demand has further shrunk. Therefore, unstable factors still exist. The editor believes that we should not be blindly optimistic. We suggest that after wave hunting and stocking up, we should wait and see with caution.

Boss, please stay. Plastic prices in various places have been updated today.

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