Super money printing machine with new materials in the future?
Three hot spots in the new material industry
1, Aramid , PI and PA
Aramid has high-end downstream applications and is a key strategic material.
Aramid products are characterized by high thresholds, few domestic companies, obvious localization substitution trends, and an obvious upward trend in the industry. The threshold for
aramid products is mainly technical and customer access thresholds. To enter the market, safety certification is required, which requires several years of successful cases. Downstream application fields have high safety requirements.
At present, the global para-aramid is in a near-balanced state, and 80% of domestic para-aramid relies on imports. From a global perspective, with the increase in application fields, the demand for para-aramid fiber will gradually increase. It is expected that the global demand for para-aramid fiber will reach about 150,000 tons in the next five years. Calculated based on an annual growth rate of 10%, my country's demand for para-aramid fiber will reach 13,000 tons in 2020, and the demand for para-aramid fiber will reach 25,000 tons in 2025.
The global meta-aramid fiber industry is mainly occupied by companies such as DuPont of the United States, Taihe New Materials , and Teijin of Japan. Among them, DuPont ranks first with 67% of its production capacity, and Teijin accounts for 7%.
polyimide - "problem-solving expert"
polyimide is one of the organic polymer materials with the best comprehensive performance. It has a high temperature resistance of over 400°C and a long-term use temperature range of -200~300°C. Some of them have no obvious melting point and have high insulation properties. The dielectric constant at 103 Hz is 4.0 and the dielectric loss is only 0.004~0.007, belonging to F to H.
PI film
PI film is the earliest and most mature product among the PI series products. It is the best choice for insulating films. The wave of localization of high-end products is approaching.
Domestic self-sufficiency has been achieved for PI films below electronic grade, while the PI film market for electronic grade and above is still mainly divided among overseas companies.
With the gradual implementation of domestic chemical imine production lines, domestic manufacturers will participate in sharing the nearly 10 billion high-end market. In the future, as the FCCL market maintains a high growth rate and the rapid popularization of OLEDs increases the demand for flexible substrates, the high-end electronic grade PI film market will be in a period of rapid expansion.
PI fiber
has taken root in the military market, and the development of the civilian market has accelerated. PI fiber has excellent heat resistance and mechanical properties. It is a core accessory material in important fields such as aerospace and military aircraft. Its application in the military market is irreplaceable.
In the commercial field, the applications of PI fiber in environmentally friendly filter materials, fireproof materials and other applications are currently in the gestation period, and are expected to add new vitality to PI fiber in the future.
PI/PMI foam
benefits from the climax of warship construction and welcomes the "blue ocean" era. The most important application of PI foam at present is heat insulation and noise reduction materials for ships. Our country's navy is currently in the third wave of shipbuilding. As the preferred heat insulation and noise reduction material for the new warship , PI foam is expected to rapidly increase demand in the future. In addition, PMI foam, as the most excellent structural foam core material, is widely used in fan blades , helicopter blades, aerospace and other fields. Its replacement trend for PET foam is clear and the market space is vast.
PI-based composite materials
Lightweight is a major trend, focusing on the high-end market. fiber reinforced composite material is a new generation of lightweight materials after magnesium aluminum alloy . The composite material with polyimide as the resin base has excellent high temperature resistance and tensile properties and is widely used. As the carbon fiber industry gradually matures, the demand for carbon fiber reinforced composite materials has grown significantly. As one of the most excellent composite material combinations, the combination of polyimide + carbon fiber has obvious advantages in seizing the high-end market.
PSPI (photosensitive polyimide)
photoresist and electronic packaging, and enjoy the dividends of high-end electronic products. Photosensitive polyimide mainly has two major applications: photoresist and electronic packaging. Compared with traditional photoresists, PSPI photoresist does not need to be coated with photoblockers, which can greatly reduce the processing steps. At the same time, PSPI is also an important electronic packaging glue.
Photosensitive polyimide can be used as a packaging material for: buffer coating, passivation layer, α ray shielding material, interlayer insulation material , chip packaging material, etc. It is also widely used in the microelectronics industry. Including packaging of integrated circuits, and multi-chip packages.
High temperature resistant nylon
High temperature nylon has relatively high technical barriers. The industry has not been developed on a large scale, and there is a huge gap in market demand. The research on high-temperature resistant nylon in my country is relatively late, and the development of new varieties is mainly based on PA6T modification, supplemented by the synthesis of new nylons.
The market for high-temperature nylon as a high-performance engineering material continues to expand. It is expected that China's demand for high-temperature nylon will grow at a rate of 15% to 25% in the next few years.
The potential demand for high temperature resistant nylon accounts for 20-30% of nylon, and the Chinese market's demand for nylon is expected to reach 10,000 tons within five years.
Nylon elastomer
Nylon elastomer is a polyester/polyether-polyamide block copolymer. The most common one is polyether block amide (PEBA). Its more prominent properties are high resilience, light weight and low temperature resistance. Impact performance. The energy return of
nylon elastomer can reach 85%, which is about 15% higher than Boost cushioning technology, and has better shock-absorbing and buffering effects. It is lighter in weight compared to TPU.
The synthesis technology threshold for nylon elastomers is relatively high, and most of them are in the hands of large foreign manufacturers such as French Arkema , German Evonik, and Japanese Ube Industries.
Nylon elastomer market demand potential is huge. In addition to the 44 billion pairs of shoes/year base material demand, there are also alternatives to polyurethane soft foam and plastic track materials .
2, electronic chemicals
Electronic chemicals are fine chemical materials specially designed for development, etching, cleaning and electroplating processes in the manufacturing of electronic information products. They are important supporting materials for information industries such as integrated circuits and flat panel display manufacturing.
In 2017, the world's output value of electronic chemicals was US$150 billion, and China's output value was approximately 260 billion yuan. It is expected that the average annual growth rate from 2018 to 2022 will be approximately 11%. Companies including Dow , Honeywell , Mitsubishi Chemical and BASF are competing to focus their electronic chemicals business on the Asia-Pacific region, including China. China has obvious advantages in terms of abundant raw materials and proximity to downstream demand, and the transfer of electronic chemical production capacity domestically has become a general trend.
3, lightweight, energy-saving materials
The key to lightweighting - high-performance new materials such as TPEE, POM, PI, PA, PU, TEEK, PPA, PTT, etc., replace steel that is several times heavier.
Polymer Curing Technology - A research team led by Professor Scott White of the University of Illinois has developed a new polymer curing technology that requires only a small heat source to complete polymer manufacturing in a short time. Compared with the current manufacturing process , which can reduce energy consumption by 10 orders of magnitude and reduce man-hours by 2 orders of magnitude.
carbon fiber - lightweight while pursuing high performance.
Big opportunities for the chemical materials industry brought about by the new energy revolution
1 Iron phosphate and Lithium iron phosphate
The explosion in demand for lithium iron phosphate is an important opportunity for the transformation and upgrading of traditional phosphorus chemical companies. Since the beginning of this year, as the demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage markets has exploded, the demand for lithium iron phosphate has grown rapidly, and may show a 10 to 20-fold increase in the next 5 to 10 years, thereby driving the demand for iron phosphate and purified phosphoric acid upstream of lithium iron phosphate. increase. At present, leading lithium iron phosphate companies have planned large-scale production expansion plans in the next few years, but they all rely on external procurement of raw materials, so there is an urgent need to find supporting upstream phosphorus resources.
2 Lithium battery electrolyte solvent and additives
2.1 electrolyte solvent
Electrolyte is the "blood" of lithium batteries. The electrolyte functions to transport and conduct lithium ions between the positive and negative electrodes, and is called the "blood" of the lithium battery. The electrolyte consists of three components: solvent, solute ( lithium salt ), and additives. The addition amounts are 80%, 12%, and 5% respectively.
has low solvent barriers, and the core competitive factor in the medium and long term is cost.Solvents belong to the carbon industry chain materials. Due to the low scarcity of upstream raw materials and the difficulty of processing elements, the barriers and shortages in this link are low. The long-term core competitive factor of the solvent business in the future is cost. The current industrialization process route includes the propylene oxide (PO) transesterification method, the ethylene oxide (EO) transesterification method, and the coal-to-ethylene glycol co-production DMC method. , among which the ethylene oxide method and the coal chemical route have cost advantages. Specifically, due to the low barriers to entry of the PO method, current mainstream players in the market, including Shi Dashenghua and Haike Xinyuan, all adopt this route. The EO method has similar unit consumption to the PO method and has significant cost advantages. Currently, the domestic manufacturers of this route are Aoke shares and New Zhoubang . In the future, Satellite Chemical will enter the EO-made DMC from the ethane link. route. The coal-to-ethylene glycol co-production DMC method starts from my country's abundant coal reserves and produces DMC through methanol and dimethyl oxalate. It has significant cost advantages. At present, the main manufacturer is Hualu Hengsheng .
Under cost competition, large chemical companies have significant advantages. The cost competition among chemical companies is mainly reflected in three links: route advantage, integration advantage, and scale advantage. In these three links, large chemical companies have a crushing advantage over downstream lithium battery material companies. Since the solvent industry chain is likely to enter complete cost competition in the medium and long term, we believe that large chemical companies in this link will continue to seize market share through cost advantages in the future. The processes of large chemical companies are mainly divided into three routes: coal, oil, and natural gas. Among them, the light hydrocarbon route (natural gas) has the strongest cost advantage in the production of ethylene and , followed by the coal chemical route.
2.2 Electrolyte additives VC, FEC
VC and FEC are currently the most commonly used electrolyte additives. Electrolyte additives are indispensable and important raw materials for the production of lithium batteries, accounting for about 5% of the mass in lithium batteries. Among them, vinylene carbonate (VC) and fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC) are still used in electrolytes due to their multiple functions such as optimizing SEI film formation, reducing low-temperature internal resistance, and improving battery low-temperature performance. Maximum conventional additives. In addition, commonly used electrolyte additives include propane sultone (PS), vinyl sulfate (DTD), lithium difluorophosphate (LiPO2F2), etc.:
improves the flash point and thermal stability of the electrolyte, and reduces volatilization properties, effectively improving the flame retardant performance of the electrolyte.
Driven by new energy vehicles and energy storage, the demand for VC and FEC will grow rapidly. According to Baichuan Yingfu, my country's total electrolyte demand in 2020 will be approximately 279,000 tons, including 164,700 tons of power electrolyte, 94,900 tons of digital electrolyte, and 19,400 tons of energy storage electrolyte. Based on our future estimates of my country’s power, digital, and energy storage battery shipments, we predict that my country’s demand for VC and FEC will grow rapidly.
2.3.PVDF
Polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) has excellent performance and is used in high value-added fields. The C-F chemical bond is one of the strongest known chemical bonds, so fluorine-containing polymer materials have excellent structural stability, as well as good aging resistance, high and low temperature resistance, insulation, chemical resistance, light resistance and barrier properties. flammable. The main specialty of PVDF in the fluorine-containing polymer material family is that it has both C-F bonds and C-H bonds. The C-F bonds provide structural stability and the C-H bonds provide solubility. Therefore, PVDF resin is suitable for being dissolved by solvents to make coatings. , use in the form of viscous glue. Among them, PVDF is used as a "coating" in the field of weather resistance and anti-corrosion, photovoltaic backsheet, lithium battery separator coating and other fields. As a "glue" it is mainly used in the field of lithium battery cathode binder.
PVDF demand is highly elastic due to new energy, and lithium battery + photovoltaic demand will account for 63% in 2025. The traditional downstream of PVDF is coatings, mainly heavy-duty anti-corrosion industrial coatings (chemical industry, shipbuilding, marine engineering) and high-end architectural coatings (landmark buildings, airports). According to Baichuan Yingfu, my country's PVDF demand will be 70,000 tons in 2020, of which 13,900 tons will be used for lithium batteries and 5,700 tons will be used for photovoltaics. Downstream demand is driven by high growth driven by the rise of new energy sources. In recent years, the downstream demand structure of PVDF has transformed from traditional anti-corrosion coating to the new energy industry. In 2020, new energy demand accounted for approximately 28% of the total demand for PVDF, and it is expected that the demand proportion will increase to 63% in 2025.
PVDF has a low downstream cost ratio and a high tolerance for downstream price increases. PVDF accounts for less than 3% of the cost of lithium batteries and photovoltaics, and the downstream cost changes caused by material price increases are small. In the field of insulating coatings, PVDF costs account for a relatively high proportion. However, because PVDF coatings are used as super weather-resistant coatings in more special fields, such as landmark high-rise buildings and airports, the maintenance costs in application scenarios are relatively high. Therefore, for coatings Cost sensitivity is weak. (Report source: Future Think Tank)
2.4 EVA
In recent years, due to the continuous increase in demand for EVA resin used in photovoltaic films, foams, and cable materials EVA resin , the apparent consumption of EVA resin in my country has continued to grow. By 2020, my country's EVA resin Consumption increased to 1.864 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.25%.
Photovoltaic film is the largest downstream application field of EVA, accounting for about 35% of the demand. The domestic demand for EVA photovoltaic materials in 2020 is about 600,000-700,000 tons. In China, there are only Sellbon, Levima Newco, and Formosa Petrochemical. Three companies can produce , but the import dependence is still over 70%. Under the tight balance between supply and demand, the price of EVA has risen sharply since the second half of last year. Due to the long expansion cycle of the EVA industry, especially photovoltaic materials, which require a long ramp-up period, we expect that EVA will still maintain a high prosperity in the next two years amid tight supply and demand.
