5:00 on September 13th
The current price increase themes in the market are mainly divided into two categories. One is the new energy direction represented by the upstream sectors of the prosperous track such as silicone, fluorine chemicals , phosphorus chemicals, etc.; the second is the direction of coal. , oil, gas, and steel are the traditional energy directions. The logic of price increases for
is also divided into two categories. One is that the industry's rapid growth has led to upstream production capacity being unable to meet the needs of the midstream and downstream, and price increases resulting from the need to expand production. The growth rate of demand in industries such as lithium batteries and photovoltaics is much greater than the growth rate of supply capacity. The second is price increases caused by seasonal tensions. For example, the domestic cement market has entered the traditional "Golden September and Silver Ten" peak seasons, and the traditional natural gas consumption peak season also begins in September.
As of the close of trading, the chemical industry, coal, oil and gas, non-ferrous metals and other sectors continued to rise sharply. The phosphorus chemical industry sector set off another daily limit trend. The concept of , silicone and has surged, which has great meaning in the battle between old and new energy.
But what needs to be clear is that compared with new energy, coal, electrolytic aluminum and other sectors in traditional energy have the following two shortcomings: 1) Commodity prices can easily affect the trend of these traditional energy sectors. At the close of domestic commodity futures, coke fell by more than 7%, coking coal fell by more than 6%, and iron ore fell by more than 3%. It is not ruled out that coal, steel and other sectors will be adjusted due to this impact; 2) Coal, electrolytic aluminum and other sectors have been under supervision. In order to To cool down the "double focus", first the handling fee was increased five times, and the margin was raised from 15% to 20% over the weekend. In addition, although it is not yet known when the cyclical commodity market will peak under the logic of price increases, the overall valuation is already at a historical high, and the current increase has exceeded the increase during the supply-side reform that year. To sum up, some institutions have begun to warn, believing that under the current background of policy emphasis and the peak of demand recovery, the rise in commodity prices has come to an end. The further we look back, the more disproportionate the benefits and risks of "catching the tail" will be.
htmlSeptember 13, 10:00
After the market opened today, lithium battery upstream industries such as fluorine chemicals, phosphorus chemicals, and cobalt resources continued to rise, and the coal sector was not afraid of bad news to carry out counter-package repairs. The shipping sector ranks among the top in terms of gains in the two cities. According to news, on September 8, maritime regulatory agencies from China, the United States and the European Union held a global shipping regulatory summit. With the dispatch of regulatory agencies and the "price freeze" (until February 1, 2022) of France's CMA CGM, the world's third largest shipping company, the high shipping prices may usher in an inflection point.
Price increase themes are mainly divided into two categories. One is the new energy direction represented by the upstream sectors of the boom track such as silicone, fluorine chemicals, and phosphorus chemicals. The other is the traditional energy direction represented by coal, oil and gas, and steel. Last Friday, the traditional energy sectors represented by coal, oil and gas, and steel underwent substantial adjustments, while sectors such as silicone, fluorine chemicals, and phosphorus chemicals continued to strengthen, driving the recovery of many midstream and downstream stocks such as lithium batteries and photovoltaics.
Although both the new energy sector and the traditional energy sector are supported by price increases, behind the scenes, the new energy sector is strongly supported, while the traditional energy sector has been under supervision. The overall trends of the two cannot be confused.
In terms of news, there was a lot of good news about new energy, carbon neutrality, and over the weekend, and the cycle is subject to regulation. In terms of new energy news: 1) The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council: Establish a green stock index and develop carbon emissions futures trading; 2) On September 9, Jilin Provincial Party Committee Secretary Jing Junhai and Governor Han Jun met with in Changchun Xiaomi Group Chairman Lei Jun and his party. While in Kyrgyzstan, Lei Jun and his party went to China FAW Group to conduct in-depth docking negotiations on cooperation matters; 3) According to data, on September 10, the average price of spodumene concentrate was reported at US$1,005/ton, with an increase of 20% since the beginning of this year. 140.7%; the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide is reported at 138,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 182.7% this year; the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 137,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 167% since this year. In terms of cycle news: DCE adjusted the margin level for speculative trading of some contracts on coking coal coke futures from 15% to 20%; 2) Domestic commodity futures closed at night with mixed trends, with fuel oil, thermal coal, low-sulfur fuel oil, No. 20 plastic rose by more than 2%, and plastics, rapeseed meal, and styrene rose by more than 1%. Coke and palm fell more than 2%, while coking coal and soybean oil fell more than 1%.
Among the top ten weekend brokerage strategies, many brokerage institutions are unanimously optimistic about the new energy track. CITIC Securities said it will continue to focus on machinery, military industry, semiconductors, and lithium whose third-quarter reports are expected to exceed expectations; Huaan Securities said it will continue to focus on the semiconductor and new energy vehicle industry chains, which are at an absolutely high level of prosperity, and added photovoltaics, which have seen a significant increase in prosperity; Essence Securities said that a new round of market trends in the high-prosperity and long-term track represented by the "Ning Group" is gaining momentum; West China Securities said that A-shares still have structural market characteristics. Hard technology, new energy, etc. are still medium and long-term. Focus on configuration direction.
