Source: Shenzhen Broadcasting and Television Direct News, Author: Chen Renhuan
Within the Democratic Progressive Party, regarding the 2020 Taiwan region leader intra-party primary election, the "Cai Lai controversy" is becoming increasingly fierce. The date of the party's primary election has been postponed again and again, and the rules for the primary election are even more insistent. The possibility that Tsai Ing-wen will eventually "turn the table" and directly manipulate the party member congress resolution on recruitment cannot be ignored. Facing the party's primary election, Tsai Ing-wen is obviously timid. But in fact, eight years ago, in 2011, Tsai Ing-wen participated in a Democratic Progressive Party primary election, but that time her opponent was the current "Executive President" Su Zhenchang.
2011 Democratic Progressive Party primary election: Tsai Ing-wen vs. Su Tseng-chang
The Democratic Progressive Party’s 2012 primary election was full of drama. At the beginning, Annette Annette, who expressed her candidacy in a loud voice and made big moves, retreated and announced her withdrawal, without any warning. Former party chairman Xu Xinliang suddenly registered to run for office. However, retreating and advancing are just a few small waves. The real showdown is the dispute between then Democratic Progressive Party Chairman Tsai Ing-wen and former "Executive President" Su Zhenchang.
On March 11, 2011, Tsai Ing-wen held a press conference to announce her participation in the party's primary election, including Ke Jianming, chief convener of the Democratic Progressive Party's "Legislative Yuan" caucus, Gu Kuanmin, leader of the "independence faction", and "legislators" Jian Zhaodong, Lai Kuncheng and others. However, the "four kings" of the Democratic Progressive Party, former Taiwan deputy leader Annette Annette, and former "executive presidents" Su Tseng-chang, Hsieh Chang-ting, and You Xikun were all absent at the time. On March 22, days after
11, Su Zhenchang held a press conference to "keep our feet on the ground and face the future" to build momentum. Many of the contents of his 20-minute speech were obviously directed at Tsai Ing-wen, such as her rich political experience and background. He comes from a poor family and has a deep relationship with the Democratic Progressive Party, all of which are deliberately meant to highlight his differences with Tsai Ing-wen. Former "Executive President" Zhang Junxiong, Chen Shui-bian's teacher Li Hongxi, former "Presidential Office" Secretary-General Chen Tangshan and others were present to congratulate.
Among the six county mayors of the Democratic Progressive Party at that time, including Lai Qingde, Cao Qihong, Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Ju, Chiayi County Mayor Zhang Huaguan, and Yunlin County Mayor Su Zhifen were all present. Even Yilan County Mayor Lin Congxian, who could not make it, was also present. Inviting his wife to come, Su Zhan said excitedly, "Six came and five and a half came."
What is particularly worth mentioning is that the then mayor of Tainan, Lai Qingde, had not attended Tsai Ing-wen’s press conference before, but came to support Su Zhenchang. I wonder if Tsai Ing-wen had already made a serious note to Lai Qingde at that time, leaving it to settle accounts later.
When Tsai Ing-wen announced her candidacy, she did not send an invitation letter to Su Zhenchang. Su's staff also followed the "Tsai Ing-wen model" and only "informed" Director Tsai Ing-wen Lin Dexun by phone, and did not invite Tsai Ing-wen to attend the event.
On March 21, the Democratic Progressive Party’s 2012 primary election officially opened for registration, but Tsai Ing-wen and Su Zhenchang both chose to register on March 23, two days later. This day is Ding Chou day in Xin Mao month, Xin Mao year, the 19th day of the second lunar month, the birthday of Guanyin Bodhisattva. It is probably a rare and auspicious day in the eyes of both of them.
Su Zhenchang was accompanied by 12 friends from different fields, ages, and political parties at the registration, and these people all had stickers saying "We believe in Su Zhenchang" on their bodies. Tsai Ing-wen was accompanied by dozens of "first-time investors" who turned 20 in 2012 to complete the registration, and the duel between the two officially began.
Two Democratic Progressive Party primaries: The weirdness of history
Although the two Democratic Progressive Party primaries were eight years apart, if you look carefully, you will find many similarities and differences.
Similarities:
In 2011, Tsai Ing-wen firmly held the position of party chairman and controlled the absolute power of resource allocation within the party. In order to allow Tsai Ing-wen to qualify in the 2012 primary election, the Democratic Progressive Party Central Committee deliberately delayed the decision on the list of the next "non-district legislators" until May. As the party chairman, Tsai Ing-wen has the absolute right to decide on the nomination of "non-district legislators", which makes all politicians and factions who want to win the nomination of "non-district legislators" flock to Tsai Ing-wen and stay away from Su Zhenchang . Moreover, the entire election process was organized by the Central Committee of the Democratic Progressive Party. Tsai Ing-wen served as both an athlete and a referee, enjoying the benefits.
In contrast, his opponent Su Zhenchang has neither a party public office nor political and administrative resources.
Although Tsai Ing-wen resigned as party chairman in 2019, within the DPP, the pro-Tsai forces have an absolute advantage and can force the DPP Central Committee to postpone the primary election date twice. They also want primary election rules and add mobile phones that are beneficial to Tsai. Polls, even. Tsai Ing-wen can once again be both a player and a referee. As the leader of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen also has a large amount of administrative resources to allocate, attracting people who are interested in official positions.
In contrast, his opponent Lai Qingde has neither a party public office nor political and administrative resources.
Difference:
In 2011, Tsai Ing-wen was leading the polls at the beginning. Su Zhenchang tried to avoid intra-party primaries, shouted "unity", and has been actively promoting internal coordination, trying to use ethics, seniority, and seniority to pressure Tsai Ing-wen to make concessions. The coordination is intended to "coordinate" himself as a candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party. He does not exclude Cai from being his deputy and strongly recommends "Su and Cai Pei".
Faced with calls for coordination within the Democratic Progressive Party, Tsai Ing-wen took the lead in announcing her candidacy, showing her unwillingness to succumb to the position of deputy.
In 2019, Lai Qingde was leading the polls at the beginning. This time he shouted "unity" and it was Tsai Ing-wen who avoided the primary election. Tsai Ing-wen repeatedly shouted, "The only way for the DPP to be united is to unite. One plus one is greater than two. There is no democracy." Because if there are polls, there will be competition, which will cause division." He strongly recommended "Cai Lai Pei".
Facing calls for coordination within the Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Qingde was the first to announce his candidacy. He also revealed that Tsai Ing-wen asked him to be his deputy, but he rejected it.
It seems that within the Democratic Progressive Party, shouting "unity" is a highly technical activity.
Cai Su has a deep knot: "Fire and water are incompatible"
The "Tsai-Lai dispute" is going on, but Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Qingde didn't actually have many "old grudges" at first, but mainly "new hatreds". In contrast, Cai Su has a long-lasting knot. For more than ten years.
"Electric Fireball" Su Zhenchang is a founder of the Democratic Progressive Party and a defense lawyer for the "Beautiful Island Incident". He has served as county magistrate in Pingtung County and Taipei County (now New Taipei City ), and also served as a member of the Democratic Progressive Party "Legislator", Party Chairman, "Executive President". Tsai Ing-wen only joined the Democratic Progressive Party in 2004. In 2005, Su Zhenchang became the chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, and Tsai Ing-wen came under Su Zhenchang's management. From 2006 to 2007, Su Zhenchang served as the "President of the Executive Yuan" and Tsai Ing-wen became the "Vice President of the Executive Yuan", becoming Su's subordinate. Although there is a superior-subordinate relationship, there has been a grudge between them for a long time.
Chen Shui-bian recalled in his recently published book "Perseverance - An Oral History Memoir of Chen Shui-bian" that Tsai Ing-wen was nominated by him to serve as "Vice President of the Executive Yuan" in 2006. Su Zhenchang, who was the "executive president" at the time, had no choice but to do so if he didn't want to, otherwise he wouldn't be the president. If he wanted to, he would have to accept it. Later, Su Zhenchang asked Chen Shui-bian twice if he could replace her, but Chen Shui-bian did not agree. Chen Shui-bian also described the relationship between Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen as "incompatible with each other." Another DPP leader, Hsieh Chang-ting, even bluntly said that the distance between the two can be measured in light years.
In the 2008 Taiwan regional leadership election, the Democratic Progressive Party was defeated. The big bosses temporarily retreated behind the scenes, and Tsai Ing-wen took over as party chairman. The number one priority is the 2010 five-city elections. At that time, Tsai Ing-wen planned to let Su Zhenchang come back to run for office in New Taipei City. If he won, he would be trapped in New Taipei City and would not be able to run in 2012. If he lost, he would be eliminated directly in 2012. He only focused on running a good business as the party chairman, leading the party to win elections in five cities, creating conditions for himself to compete in 2012, and firmly refused to run for mayor.
Tsai Ing-wen made a good plan, but Su Zhenchang took the lead and ran for mayor of Taipei, breaking Tsai Ing-wen's overall strategic layout first, and then forced Tsai Ing-wen to run for mayor of New Taipei City. In the end, both of them lost. As the chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, Tsai Ing-wen was clearly arranged by Lao Su this time, and the two were even more incompatible.
The "Cai Lai War" is in full swing. Is Su Zhenchang "the oriole behind"?
In the "nine-in-one" election last year, the DPP was defeated. Lai Qingde asked to leave. Tsai Ing-wen asked Su Zhenchang to take back the blame. She originally hoped to use Su Zhenchang's familiarity with government affairs to strive for political achievements. Unexpectedly, Su Zhenchang was unwilling to be just a "dismissal team". He wants to use the remaining political power to turn himself around.
"Once the power is in hand, the order will be carried out." Su Zhenchang made a major change in the personnel of Taiwan's public stock bank, from China National Petroleum Corporation, a public enterprise under the "Ministry of Economic Affairs", to Grand Hotel under the jurisdiction of the "Ministry of Transport", China Airlines again No one was spared, including First Financial and other public equity banks under the "Ministry of Finance", and even the Communications and Communications Commission, which had tenure guarantees. Many parties involved were directly told to resign without even knowing why they were replaced, and there was no time to recruit reinforcements. . During the replacement, Su Zhenchang did not shy away from hiring a large number of "Soviet" people. For example, Lin Yusheng, Su Zhenchang's close confidant, took over the chairman of the Grand Mountain Hotel who had been vacant for half a year, and Zhang Zijing, who had "Soviet" characteristics, became the head of Taiwan's environmental protection department.
Su Zhenchang strongly dominates the personnel layout. Although it complies with the relevant regulations on the island, it is reported that he did not communicate with Tsai Ing-wen in advance, and is suspected of evading Tsai Ing-wen. In fact, for Su Zhenchang, who is already in his 70s, since there is little chance of fighting for a "big position" again, it is better to seize powerful official positions and well-paid executive positions in public enterprises for his children, strengthen the strength of his own faction, and plan for the future. In order to win over Su Zhenchang, Tsai Ing-wen can only turn a blind eye. Will
history "reincarnate" again?
After a fierce primary election, on April 27, 2011, according to a comparative poll released by the Democratic Progressive Party Central Committee, Tsai Ing-wen's support was 42.50%, and Su Zhenchang's support was 41.15%. Tsai Ing-wen narrowly defeated Su Zhenchang and won the Democratic Progressive Party's ticket to run in the 2012 election. However, in the 2012 Taiwan regional leadership election, Tsai Ing-wen lost to Ma Ying-jeou, who was seeking re-election, and was forced to resign as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party. The next one, the 14th chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, is Su Zhenchang. However, two years later, in 2014, Tsai Ing-wen made a comeback and became the 15th party chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party. In 2015, Tsai Ing-wen was nominated by the Democratic Progressive Party to run for the 2016 election without an opponent and without a primary election.
Today, under the operation of Tsai Ing-wen’s powerful administrative resources, Lai Qingde’s lead in the polls continues to shrink, and there are even signs of being overtaken by Tsai Ing-wen. However, some analysts believe that with the DPP likely to lose power in 2020, Lai Qingde's decision to go out on behalf of the DPP will cut off his political path. Tsai Ing-wen represents the Democratic Progressive Party, but if she loses the election. Instead, Lai Ching-te has the opportunity to make a comeback and take over as chairman of the DPP after Zhuo Rongtai resigned as chairman of the DPP after the 2020 election to show responsibility.
Will history reincarnate again?
Source: Shenzhen Radio and Television Direct News, Author: Chen Renhuan
