Entering March, driven by high costs, the domestic market is welcoming a wave of enthusiasm. PP spot quotations are in full bloom. As of today, drawing (Shaoxing three-yuan T30S) has increased by 1,100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month to 9,700 yuan/ton; Transparent (Shanghai) Petrochemical M800E) increased by 450 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month to 10,600 yuan/ton; Copolymer (Zhejiang Petrochemical K8003); increased by 900 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month to 9,650 yuan/ton. So is the rise sustainable, what will be the future trend, and what are the influencing factors?
1. Continuous sanctions and unpredictable oil price surges
Russia warned on Monday that if the United States and the European Union ban oil imports from Russia, international oil prices may climb to more than $300 per barrel. However, on March 8, the White House issued a statement on its website stating that US President Biden officially signed an executive order banning the United States from importing energy from Russia. At the same time, the UK also announced that it plans to stop importing Russian oil and corresponding petroleum products by the end of 2022 to further strengthen sanctions against Russia. As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to intensify and Western sanctions against Russia continue to escalate, future oil prices may be unpredictable.
2. Petrochemicals have reduced their burdens and guaranteed prices, but little effect has been achieved
Inventories of "two oils" remain high. Although major petrochemicals have taken measures such as parking and load reduction, the overall results have been little. The latest data shows that from the beginning of the month to the present, it has only dropped by 85,000 tons and is currently 920,000 tons. The destocking speed is relatively slow. The key factor is the continued rise in quotations, which discourages many downstream users. Industry insiders say that many plastics manufacturers have reduced production activities as profit margins have been squeezed out by soaring costs.
Three, strong rise, futures went straight to the 10,000 yuan mark
Amid the financial market shock caused by geopolitical conflicts, everything related to crude oil is facing the most serious impact in history, and PP futures have not been immune to it. Some analysts believe that the current upward trend risk has not been eliminated, and oil prices are still likely to continue to hit new highs, which will help stimulate PP futures to continue to rise. The price of
's upstream products has risen sharply, pushing the price center of the industrial chain upward. However, an excessively rapid rise will suppress demand. Under pressure on profits, downstream users will inevitably lose their enthusiasm for production, further aggravating the pressure on resource inventories. In the current game of high costs and low demand, market risks are gradually increasing. Short-term spot prices may continue to follow up, but the range will gradually shrink.
