Text/Walking Stuka
The Philippine general election has completed voting. According to preliminary statistics, presidential candidate Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and vice presidential candidate Sarah Duterte both won, although the final results have yet to be It will be officially announced after confirmation by the Election Commission and Congress, but basically the overall situation has been decided.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Sarah Duterte are both candidates supported by the current President Duterte’s party; Duterte’s term is about to expire and he cannot seek re-election according to the constitution. He has also “indirectly” supported it. Marcos, some media believe that the two "may form political synergies"; this is obviously not the result that Washington wants to see. Regarding this result, CNN commented that "the Philippine election may be a victory for China."
For Washington, the best candidate for president of the Philippines is the current Vice President Robredo. She is a representative of the pro-American forces in the Philippines and narrowly defeated Marcos Jr. in the 2016 vice presidential election. She has always advocated that the Philippines side with the United States and is a staunch critic of Duterte's domestic and international policies, especially in the "war on drugs". She has always criticized Duterte's hardline stance.
Although to this day, pro-American forces still have a certain public base in the Philippines, and Marcos has been burdened with his father's corruption scandal, Robredo still lost to his rivals at a large disadvantage in the presidential election. This has to give Washington a sense of crisis: its influence in its former colony has declined significantly, and it cannot even influence Philippine politics as Washington hopes.
Of course, Washington does not need to be discouraged. Marcos Jr.’s coming to power is not without its benefits. Lao Du is a flamboyant person. When he took office as the president of the Philippines, he severely criticized the policies and speeches of the United States many times. Sometimes he was so harsh that the United States could not step down. But Marcos is obviously not such a person. He is a traditional politician. He has been a member of Congress for a long time and presents himself as a "modesty gentleman". He is more understanding of the world and is unlikely to be as arrogant and unforgiving as Lao Du - of course. Marcos Jr. is unlikely to make any major adjustments to Lao Du's policies. Balanced diplomacy between China and the United States is still the priority of the Manila government in the future.
The election results in the Philippines actually reflect a clear fact: The United States' behavior of asking small countries to choose sides in the "big power competition" will not bring much substantive results. For a long time, Washington has been encouraging the Philippines to stir up trouble in the South China Sea, especially in the hope that Manila will use the so-called "arbitration results" to push China-Philippine relations to the end and make the Philippines its own "fortification area" in the South China Sea. ".
However, the changes in the international situation have made many countries understand that becoming a pawn in Western geopolitical competition is a very risky thing. Ukraine is a ready example. This country has tied its future and destiny to the U.S.'s European strategy, and what it will ultimately gain is war and the people's livelihood is in dire straits; if the Philippines follows Ukraine as an example, the only thing it will get is China's Scarborough Shoal or Oxbow Reef. Artificial islands, by then it will be too late for Manila to ask the United States for help - the artificial islands and reefs China has built in the South China Sea are the best example. The United States has proven with actual actions that it is impossible for them to change any of China's Established policies and status quo.
Under such circumstances, it is of course a "really sweet" thing to calm down and do business with China and make a fortune together. This is probably the main reason why it is increasingly difficult for the pro-American faction in the Philippines to convince the people.
Of course, this situation is not limited to the Philippines among ASEAN countries, but also other countries. The European Union followed the United States' "European Deterrence Strategy." As a result, Russia was not deterred, but it shocked itself to tears; Such "learning is not far away" has also shocked ASEAN. Even Singapore has kept a distance from the United States' "Indo-Pacific Deterrence Strategy".
When the results of the Philippine election came out, the American media was inevitably angry, but who can be blamed? Don’t even look at the nasty things Washington has done over the years!
