Source / China Securities Journal Author Wu Shun
In just over 3 months, the Shanghai Composite Index soared from 2440.91 points to more than 3200 points.
News that only appear in bull markets such as "selling houses to speculate in stocks", "borrowing money to speculate in stocks", " allocating funds to speculate in stocks " are constantly emerging.
OTC funds are ready to move, and on-market funds are also quite lively.
Oriental Fortune Choice's financing data shows that on April 8, the single-day net purchase volume of financing in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 14.151 billion yuan. As of April 8, the financing balance of and reached 951 billion yuan, which is only one step away from returning to more than one trillion yuan.
Financing customers added positions
Oriental Fortune Choice data shows that the recent financing balance has risen for eight consecutive years, reaching 951 billion yuan on April 8, approaching the trillion yuan mark; the balance of financing and financing reached 960.998 billion yuan.
Financing balance and Shanghai Composite Index analysis
As can be seen from the above figure, at the beginning of 2019, the financing balance and the Shanghai Composite Index began to rise almost simultaneously. From 2017 to the present, there have been only 8 trading days in which the net financing purchase amount exceeded 10 billion yuan in a single day, and 7 of them occurred in 2019:
Among them, the largest net financing purchase amount was in February 2019. On the 25th, net purchases reached 17.965 billion yuan that day, while the most recent was on April 8, reaching 14.151 billion yuan.
The most popular securities stocks
What did the financing customers buy? Data shows that the securities industry is the most popular.
3 The top ten industries with the highest net financing purchases since March
Correspondingly, the securities sector has been rising sharply since 2019:
Judging from individual stocks , financing customers love to chase the rise. In the past month, Zhejiang Longsheng is undoubtedly the favorite among financing customers, with its financing balance increasing by 166.29%.
What happened to the two companies in history after they broke through one trillion yuan?
In fact, almost every time the two-digit financial market exceeds one trillion yuan, it means the market is picking up, or even the coming of a bull market. Therefore, once the two financial data approaches the trillion mark, the market will be extremely concerned.
data shows that the most recent two-digit meltdown exceeding one trillion was between the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018. The Shanghai Composite Index also reached its high point in recent years, 3587.03 points, but then ushered in nearly a full year of 2018. A trip down.
Looking back further, the two trillion-dollar meltdowns occurred during the bull market from the end of 2014 to the middle of 2015, and during the market rebound at the end of 2015. However, after these two big carnivals, what ushered in was Substantial adjustment. Can
be different this time?
A shares still have upward momentum
Fortune Securities said: Looking ahead to April, A shares still have upward momentum. The motivation mainly comes from the following points:
(1) Regulators have a tendency to relax refinancing policies, and stock index futures may also be liberalized soon. The stricter regulatory system and control measures are expected to be further relaxed, which will help release market vitality. This is also the reason why the brokerage sector was active last week.
(2) Global liquidity remains abundant, the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has slowed, and the pressure on emerging countries' exchange rates has decreased.
(3) Domestic economic leading indicators have shown signs of improvement. The bottom of the economy may not be far away, and market expectations are gradually being fulfilled.
(4) Social finance data is expected to continue to improve, and the March data may exceed expectations. In terms of
investment advice, investors are advised to look for stocks whose annual reports and first-quarter reports exceed expectations. In terms of industry allocation, it is continued to be recommended to overweight high-end manufacturing fields such as computers, semiconductors, communications, and new energy, as well as non-bank finance, infrastructure, military industry and other industries. Pay attention to The cyclical stock sector is represented by the basic chemical industry, which is affected by environmental protection regulations and supply-side production capacity.
China Galaxy Securities pointed out that emotions are high and rationality is supreme. In the long run, the fundamentals have gradually improved, but we still need to pay attention to the performance disclosure of listed companies. A-shares will eventually return to fundamentals from being dominated by emotions and policies. Therefore, fundamentals are the fundamental driving force supporting the long-term upward trend of A-shares.
