Macroeconomic domestic macro: China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: will further promote the stable, orderly and healthy development of special products, support insurance institutions to increase the scale of financial and strategic investments in listed companies,

Currency Market

Central Bank Open Market Operations: The Central Bank of China did not conduct open market operations today and has suspended open market operations for two consecutive days. The increase in fiscal expenditures near the end of the month can offset the impact of the central bank's reverse repurchase expiration, government bond issuance and payment and other factors. In order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, reverse repurchase operations will not be carried out on October 29, 2018. 's unreverse repurchase expired today at 120 billion yuan, achieving a net withdrawal of 120 billion yuan from (see Table 2 for details).

Fund prices: Fund prices between banks and exchanges have gone up and down. Specifically, inter-bank DR001 fell by 20.08BP today, and DR007 rose by 2.87BP today. R001 dropped 19.70BP today. The trading volume of DR001 increased by 189.466 billion yuan. The price of funds on the exchange rose, with GC001 rising by 1.76 BP and GC007 rising by 1.09 BP (see Table 3 for details).

Interest rate bonds

Primary market: A total of 2 interest rate bonds were issued today, both of which are Agricultural Development Bonds, with a total scale of 12 billion yuan. After experiencing the squeeze from the issuance of local bonds last month, the current market demand for interest rate bonds has returned to stability. The subscription demand for bonds of all maturities is relatively stable. The overall subscription multiple for agricultural development bonds is relatively high, both at around 4 ( See Table 4 for details).

Interbank deposit single-level market: The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit went up and down , among which the AAA-level 3M interbank certificates of deposit decreased by 4.36 billion yuan, the 6M period decreased by 16.41 billion yuan, and the 1Y period increased by 7.98 billion yuan. AA+-rated interbank certificates of deposit for the 3M period decreased by 770 million yuan, and the 9M period decreased by 1.60 billion yuan. AA-rated 3M interbank certificates of deposit increased by 550 million yuan, 6M phase increased by 250 million yuan, and 1Y phase decreased by 750 million yuan (see Table 5 for details).

Secondary market: Interest rate bond yields closed slightly lower and trading volume increased. On October 29, the trading volume of government bonds was 174.489 billion yuan, an increase of 41.712 billion yuan from yesterday; the trading volume of CDB bonds was 233.985 billion yuan, an increase of 12.082 billion yuan from yesterday, and the overall trading volume was upward. Treasury bond yields fell, with the 3Y period falling the most, reaching 4.40BP. The short-term upward trend of CDB bonds and the long-term downward trend, with the 3Y period falling the most, reaching 4.69 BP, the 5Y period falling by 4.01 BP, and the 10Y period falling by 2.49 BP. The yield rate of inter-bank spot bonds dropped significantly. The yield rate of the 10-year CDB active bond 180210 dropped 2.50bp to 4.07%, and the yield rate of the 10-year government bond active bond 180019 dropped 3bp to 3.51% (see Table 6 for details).

Today, the yields on interbank certificates of deposit fell across the board. The yield on interbank certificates of deposit of state-owned banks fell by 3.10 BP for the 6M period, 0.71 BP for the 1Y period, and 0.71 BP for the 2Y period. The share price of joint-stock banks fell by 3.10 BP in the 6M period, 0.71 BP in the 1Y period, and 0.71 BP in the 2Y period.The Rural Commercial Bank's 6M period fell by 3.09 BP, the 1Y period fell by 7.71 BP, and the 2Y period fell by 7.71 BP (see Table 7 for details).

Credit bond

Credit bond issuance: A total of 6 short-term financing were newly issued in the primary market today, and 23 were medium-term, with a total scale of 20.28 billion. Today's short-term financing issuance scale is 6.40 billion yuan, and the largest issuance is 18 Datong Coal Mine CP006, with an issuance scale of 2.50 billion yuan; a total of 19.95 billion yuan of medium-term notes issuance, of which the largest issuance is 18 TEDA Investment MTN002, with an issuance scale of 1.55 billion yuan, in the steel industry (see Table 8 for details).

Yield: Today, the yields on short-term credit bonds of all grades were mixed. Specifically, the super AAA grade 1Y period went up by 0.5 BP, the 3Y period went down by 2.5 BP, and the 5Y period went up by 0.25 BP. The AAA grade was mixed, the 1Y period went down by 0.75 BP, the 3Y period went up by 1.0 BP, and the 5Y period went up by 2.0 BP. . The absolute yield of AA+ grade 5Y period increased by 1.75 BP, that of AA grade 5Y period increased by 48.75 BP, AA- grade credit spread decreased by 120.0 BP in 3Y period, and that of 5Y period decreased by 5.5 BP (see Table 8 for details).

Credit spreads: Credit spreads of various bond types were mixed today. super AAA grade 1Y period went down by 0.0 BP, 3Y period went up by 3.0 BP, 5Y period went up by 4.0 BP, AAA grade was mixed, 1Y period went down by 1.0 BP, 3Y period went up by 7.0 BP, and 5Y period went up by 6.0 BP. The AA+ grade credit spread for the 1Y period fell by 1.0 BP, the AA grade 5Y period went up by 52.0 BP, the AA- grade credit spread for the 3Y period fell by 114.0 BP, and the 5Y period fell by 2.0 BP (see Table 9 for details).

Trading volume: The trading volume in the secondary market of credit bonds was mixed. Today's short-term financing transaction of was 30.928 billion yuan, an increase of 8.107 billion yuan. The transaction volume of medium-term tickets was 36.683 billion yuan, an increase of 846 million yuan. The trading volume of corporate bonds increased by 561 million yuan, the trading volume of corporate bonds decreased by 76 million yuan, the trading volume of private placement bonds increased by 219 million yuan, and the trading volume of PPN decreased by 2.58 billion yuan. The overall transaction volume was 80.579 billion yuan, an increase of 7.077 billion yuan (see Table 10 for details). Valuation situation of

: Valuations are mixed. According to the pricing and valuation of non-financial corporate debt financing instruments of the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors, the cost of corporate bond issuance has increased slightly. Among them, the issuance cost of 1Y bond has changed at -1.0-2.0BP, the issuance cost of 3Y bond has changed at -2.0-1.0BP, the issuance cost of 5Y bond has changed at -1.0-1.0BP, and the issuance cost of 10Y bond has dropped by 0.0-1.0BP. (See Table 11 for details).

Credit bond deviation: A total of 12 high-valued bonds were traded today, mainly distributed in construction and decoration, comprehensive, leisure services, non-ferrous metals and other industries. The top five high valuation deviations today are: 16 Zhengdi 04 was sold at 5.63%, 57.87bp higher than the valuation; 15 Changcheng 01 was sold at 5.50%, 43.15bp higher than the valuation; PR Tianyi 02 The transaction price was 4.68%, which was 36.93bp higher than the valuation; PR Taodu Bond was sold at 5.80%, which was 27.11bp higher than the valuation; 18 Haicang Investment PPN001 was sold at 5.95%, which was 26.94bp higher than the valuation (see Table 12 for details) .

A total of 8 low-valuation bonds were traded today, mainly distributed in construction and decoration, steel, banking and other industries. The top five companies with large deviations from low valuations today are: 14 Yueqing Bonds were traded at 4.75%, 30.12bp lower than the valuation; 18 Industrial Investment 01 was sold at 5.40%, 25.50bp lower than the valuation; 18 Valin Steel MTN002 The transaction price was 5.05%, which was 17.49bp lower than the estimated value; 16 Jiangkong 01 was sold at 5.00%, which was 12.68bp lower than the estimated value; 18 Wujiang Jingkai MTN002 was sold at 5.00%, which was 11.65bp lower than the estimated value (see Table 12 for details) .

Actively traded bond types: Industrial bonds are actively traded, with short- and medium-duration bond trading volume dominated, and bond yields still on the high side. On October 29, the short-term actively traded securities are all of shorter duration. The active trading sectors of mid-term notes are mainly industrial and public utilities, and the bond yields are relatively high. Corporate bonds are mainly industrial bonds, and the transaction yield is still high. Corporate bonds are mainly concentrated in real estate bonds, and PPN transactions today are concentrated in industry and energy, with higher yields (see Table 13 for details).

event attention:

• related bonds: 17 Shin Kong Holdings CP002. The Shanghai Clearing House announced that October 29 is the interest payment date for “17 Shin Kong Holdings CP002”. As of the end of the day, the company has not received the interest payment and redemption funds, and is temporarily unable to act on behalf of the issuer for the interest payment and redemption of this bond.

• related bonds: 15 Huaxin MTN001. Shanghai Huaxin International Group Co., Ltd. announced on October 29 that "15 Shanghai Huaxin MTN001" should pay the principal and interest on November 3. Since the company's normal operations have been significantly adversely affected, the financing plan has not yet been implemented. This medium-term note There is uncertainty about the maturity payment, and the company is still actively raising interest payment funds.

• related bonds: 18 young eagle farming and animal husbandry SCP01. Young Eagle Agriculture and Animal Husbandry announced on October 29 that due to the company's tight cash flow, the "18 Young Eagle Agriculture and Animal Husbandry SCP001" that should be redeemed on November 5 has redemption risks. The company is currently making every effort to raise debt repayment funds through various channels. .

• related bonds: 16 Yu Jing Kai Bond/16 Yu Jing Kai. Shaoxing Shangyu Economic Development Zone Investment Development Group Co., Ltd.’s cumulative new borrowings from January to September 2018 exceeded 40% of its net assets at the end of the previous year. Oriental Jincheng is concerned that the company's borrowing scale has grown rapidly and debt repayment pressure has increased.

• related bonds: 15 Ji'an Jingkai PPN001. Ji'an Jinggangshan Development Zone Jinluling Economic Development Co., Ltd. announced that the resale registration period for "15 Ji'an Jingkai PPN001" is November 12-16, the resale price is 100 yuan, and the exercise date is December 1 On the same day, after exercising the option to adjust the coupon rate, the coupon rate of the remaining interest-bearing period of some debt financing instruments that have not been sold back increased by 0.81 percentage points to 7.80%.

• related bonds: 16 Zhonghong 01, 16 Hong Bond 03, 16 Hong Bond 02, 16 Hong Bond 01. Zhonghong Co., Ltd. announced that on October 26, the total amount of new overdue debt principal and interest of the company and its subsidiaries was 5.8471 million yuan, all of which were various types of loans. In the first three quarters, the net loss was 1.885 billion yuan, with revenue of 3.261 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.74%; in the third quarter, the net loss was 558 million yuan, with revenue of 784 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.44%.

• related bonds: 18 Shengyun Environmental Protection SCP001. Shengyun Environmental Protection issued a correction announcement that "18 Shengyun Environmental Protection SCP001" has not been paid in full on time, saying that the previous announcement mistakenly calculated the duration of "18 Shengyun Environmental Protection SCP001" as 365 days, and calculated the principal and interest amount payable in the announcement as 2.15 billion. After verification, the duration of "18 Shengyun Environmental Protection SCP001" is 270 days, and the principal and interest amount payable should be "211 million yuan.

Rating adjustment

Lianhe Credit: Downgrade of Huayang economic and trade entities and related debt ratings ;

Pengyuan Credit rating: raised the debt rating of "17 Xiping 01/17 Xiping Bond 01" to AAA;

ChinaBond Financial Valuation Center: lowered the ChinaBond Market Implied Rating-Bond Debt Rating of Tianbao Food's "17Tianbao 01" to BBB ;

ChinaBond Financial Valuation Center: lowered the ChinaBond Market Implied Rating of Nanning Sugar's existing bonds - bond debt rating to A (see Table 14 for details).

Derivatives

Treasury bond futures mostly closed up. 17.0BP, 5Y period TF1903 went up 24.5BP, 5Y period 1906 went down 64.5BP; 10Y period T1812 went up 21.5BP, T1903 went up 24.0BP, T1906 went down 131.5BP; 2-year TS1812 went up 8.5BP, TS1903 went down 3.0 BP, TS1906 went down 33.5 BP. Treasury futures fell back toward the end of the session, with the main 10-year contract rising by 0.22% and the main 5-year contract rising by 0.17% (see Table 15 for details). The IRS market fell slightly today. The 6M period REPO fell by 0.01 BP, the 1Y period REPO fell by 0.02 BP, and the 5Y period REPO fell by 0.03 BP. SHIBOR_3M was mixed, with the 6M period falling by 0.02 BP, the 9M period falling by 0.02 BP, the 5Y period falling by 0.04 BP, and the 10Y period. The period fell by 0.04BP (see Table 16 for details).

Foreign exchange and commodities

In terms of foreign exchange: the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar increased by 133 basis points to 6.9377, ending the previous four consecutive days of depreciation in the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar. At 6.9510, the closing price was 6.9475 at 16:30 and at 6.9450 at 23:30. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.29% in late New York trading at 96.69, a new high in two and a half months. The euro fell 0.27% against the U.S. dollar, at 1.1373. The Japanese yen rose 0.47% to 112.375; the British pound fell 0.27% against the U.S. dollar, to 1.2795; the U.S. dollar rose 0.24% against the Canadian dollar, to 1.3134; the U.S. dollar rose 223 basis points against the offshore yuan, or 0.32%, to 6.9752 (for details, see Table 17).

Commodities: The domestic futures market closed mixed. The main contracts of iron ore, thermal coal, and PTA increased, while the main contracts of soybean meal, rebar, coke rubber, and Shanghai copper fell. Among them, PTA1901 had the largest increase, at 1.68%; rubber 1901 had the largest decrease, at -2.50% (for details, see Table 18).

This article comes from CITIC postdoctoral fellow

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