After releasing the trailer for the New Year’s Eve live show of the long-short showdown [Will the Spring Flowers Bloom in Spring 2022] yesterday, many fans came to me and asked me if I could give an analysis of the rise and fall of the Chongqing property market this year as an ap

Yesterday, after

released the trailer for the New Year’s Eve live broadcast of the long-short showdown in [2022 Spring Has Bloomed?], many fans came to me and asked me if I could first analyze the rise and fall of Chongqing’s property market this year as an appetizer.

Okay, here’s the dish:

Looking back on the Chongqing property market in 2021, it can be described in four words: ups and downs.

First, with the popularity of local auctions in April, the enthusiasm for home buying in Chongqing was ignited. Then the market fell into a downturn, and everyone seemed to be waiting and watching with their hands behind their backs.

Some people say that "Chongqing's real estate market is in a slump, and hundreds of thousands of real estate speculators are trapped."

But some people say that the unit price of a high-rise luxury apartment in Yuzhong that appeared in December exceeded 100,000 yuan, making Chongqing's ceiling "finally have a ceiling" "A commercial house with a unit price of over RMB 10" is still very shameless.

(Picture source Chongqing online real estate )

Faced with such a magical plot, many fans will ask:

What is the truth about Chongqing’s commercial residential housing prices in 2021? Has it risen or fallen?

Has the housing price gap in the core area of ​​the main city (District 9 + Liangjiang New District , High-tech Zone) expanded? Who is leading the rise? Who is the most resilient?

How should we view the hotness after April and the coldness from October to November?

Today I want to clear up the fog from the perspective of an observer of the Chongqing property market and help everyone explore the truth.

01

Chongqing rose 8%?

Let me start with a conclusion that may surprise some people: Chongqing experienced an initial rise and then a fall, but in the end was still 8% higher than last year!

Where does the turning point of the market appear? It's just about the end of the first half of the year.

According to data from Mingteng Institution, the average transaction price in the first half of this year increased 13.59% compared with 2020.

(Source: Mingteng Agency)

The market performance is obvious to all. Maybe no one would have thought at the beginning that the high temperature will not retreat + the volume and price will increase + it will be sold out at the opening...

has been so popular that it has stood out across the country several times. One of the C positions, many real estate projects have almost completed the full-year KPI in the first half of the year.

But then the restless heartbeat was suppressed.

Despite this, according to National Bureau of Statistics11 data, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in Chongqing increased by 8% year-on-year!

(Source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Does this official one-year cumulative data count as a slap in the face to the "Liangliang Party"?

Because whether compared with last year or compared with 70 large and medium-sized cities across the country, the +8% figure is quite eye-catching.

It seems that probably fell by about 5.6% in the second half of the year. is not as powerful as everyone imagined.

So why was the market so good in the first half of the year? I think it is caused by two reasons.

1) The popularity of local auctions around

4, which “constantly refreshes DW records + high premium rates + frequent land sales of 10,000 yuan”, has led to a structural upward trend in housing prices.

2) Compensatory increase promotes

In addition, due to what everyone calls "sky-high supply", Chongqing's housing price performance has been relatively stable in recent years. However, with the rotation of national sectors, supplementary increases have appeared in cities represented by Chongqing. rising phenomenon.

(Source: Ruili Data)

So how do we view the shrinking market in the second half of the year? The transaction volume in October hit a 10-year low, and the commercial housing market transaction in November fell below 10,000 yuan? (Source: Ruili Data)

1) Chongqing’s downturn has not deviated from the pace of the national property market

Due to “continuously rising interest rates + nationwide credit tightening + second-hand housing guide prices in some cities + new policies for land auctions, etc.” Finance, land, new houses , the second-hand housing market is affected by all-round regulation. This year, the trend across the country is uphill → downhill.

In Chongqing, the market began to turn around in June, and transaction volume continued to decline, which is in line with the national property market.

2) The fall in sentiment in October-November was not as bad as I thought

My personal evaluation of October-November is that two rats ruined a pot of soup.

Because everyone feels that Chongqing is in a bad state, housing prices began to plummet during the two-month trough period.

However:

The sales price of newly built commercial housing nationwide in October has fallen below 10,000 yuan (9,749 yuan), while the average transaction price in Chongqing is still above 10,000 yuan.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the fall in new homes in Chongqing in November was the first time this year; according to monitoring by the China Index Research Institute, it was due to the dual factors of a large number of transactions of low-priced properties and a decrease in the proportion of residential properties.

In other words, Chongqing has not gone out of the independent market, and it has fallen slower than the whole country. It is already very stable.

So, what about the rise and fall of the prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in the core areas of Chongqing’s main city (District 9 + Liangjiang New District and High-tech Zone) this year?

Let’s talk next. (There is a summary at the end of the article~)

02

Housing price performance in core areas

(The data for each area in this article comes from: Ruili data. Since it is manually organized, the chart lacks some months of combing, hope you understand~)

1, Yuzhong District

(only General trend reference)

The mother city is still the mother city. Not only has it always been in the C position, but it has also always been about 9,000 yuan higher than the average price in the core area.

But the limelight comes from those high-rise luxury homes. The high cost of land without land supply for 4 years has opened up a gap of more than 2 times in the average price between Yuzhong and Dadukou and Banan.

2, Yubei District

(only for general trend reference)

Although in Yubei District is higher than the average price in the core area throughout the year, the price difference is small and not as strong as the housing prices in Jiangbei .

Although Liangjiang New District has a large transaction area of ​​villas, the price of villas in Yubei District is the highest in the core areaTOP1 (the average transaction price from January to October is 16,491 yuan).

3, Jiangbei District

(only for general trend reference)

Jiangbei overall is about 2,000 yuan higher than the average price in the core area, which is as stable as a dog!

With the rise of Jiangbeizui-Beibin Road area;

With the upgrade and expansion of Guanyinqiao business district, Chang'an No. 3 urban renewal and other actions;

With the planning of Cuntan International New City...

The value of Jiangbei District has been consolidated, and many high-quality residential buildings have a relatively strong ability to maintain and increase their value.

4, Liangjiang New District

(only for general trend reference)

Liangjiang New District house prices are basically slightly higher than the average price in the core area, and the trend is also very stable.

Whether it is a small high-rise, a garden house or a villa, the number of sales units accounts for less than half of the total in the main city.

Who says heroes grow old?

5, Beibei District

(only for general trend reference)

Beibei 's garden house business format is undoubtedly "one family dominates" , but the problem caused by the strong sense of existence may be: homogeneity will compare serious.

Judging from the performance in September and October, the opening of the three bridges and one tunnel has a supportive effect on Beibei housing prices.

6, Nan'an District

(only for general trend reference)

South Bank is generally higher than the average price in the core area. Although the limelight is relatively small throughout the year, the house price performance from May to July is quite outstanding. ranks in the core area in the first half of the year. TOP3.

Nan'an District has a relatively rich residential business format, and there is a lot of room for improvement. The planning of Nanbin Road CBD may lead Nan'an District to usher in a wave of value growth.

7, high-tech zone

(only for general trend reference)

Housing prices can still rise during the cold period in the second half of the year, which is indeed something.

Although the average price in the high-tech zone was about 2,400 yuan lower than the average price in the core zone from January to July, its prosperity has been very obvious since August. In October, the difference was even less than 1,000 yuan.

It can be seen that the implementation of various favorable policies + the rising floor prices have a substantial effect on the increase in housing prices in high-tech zones. And its improvement attributes are becoming increasingly obvious. From January to July, the number of garden house sales also accounted for half of the country.

High-tech Zone is no longer the young man in need. In the past it might have been Bi Ma Wen , but in the future it might be Sun Wukong.

8, Shapingba District

(only for general trend reference)

Sand District Overall house prices have increased by at least 1,000+ yuan this year, but they still rarely outperform the average price in core areas.

After sufficient land is available in the logistics park area, the business format can be improved to a higher level.

Enjoy the westward wind outlet of Chongqing + the sandy area with high housing price acceptance, and the future is very promising!

9, Jiulongpo District

(only for general trend reference)

The overall housing prices in the slope area are still not high. Unlike Nan'an, which "performed well" in the first half of the year, Slope District's performance was a little weak in the second half.

High-rise buildings in slope areas have always sold better. If improved products such as bungalows are not so far away in emerging sectors such as Taojia , improved prices can also boost housing prices .

10, Dadukou District

(only for general trend reference)

Dadukou’s presence has not been very high, and no month in the year has particularly outstanding results.

However, the price threshold, which is about 3,000 yuan different from the average price in the core area, is still worthy of consideration by owner-occupiers in the core area.

If more improves the market and fills the gap in the industry, the value will be higher .

11, Banan District

(only for general trend reference)

Banan housing prices are basically weaker than the average price in the core area of ​​about 2,500+ yuan, but is already rapidly rising .

Not only does the transaction volume of high-rise residential buildings occupy the C position in the core area, but the report card of garden houses is also quite impressive.

03

Summary

Finally, let me make a summary:

has always been "broken" in the C position: Yuzhong

is always higher than the average price in the core area, and the trend is stable. : Yuzhong, Yubei , Jiangbei (Liangjiang New District, Nan'an Occasionally appear)

1-October whose unit price increased by more than 1,000 yuan: Po District, Yubei, Sha District, Dadukou, High-tech Zone

Dark horse areas that are more "resistant" during the cold period in the second half of the year: High-tech Zone

Generally speaking, Houses are also commodities, and it is normal for prices to rise and fall.

Chongqing’s indifference in the second half of the year did not have much impact on the enthusiasm in the first half of the year, and the overall situation is still as stable as ever. The current market has bottomed out and the market is recovering.

So, will Chongqing’s property market rise or fall next year? Welcome to [New Line Fuyun Video Account] on December 30th to follow our New Year’s Eve live broadcast!

Will housing prices in Chongqing rise next year? 12.30 Fuyun and Xiaoshu will go live to decide the winner!