Just as no one would have predicted that the Grand Duke Ferdinand of Sarajevo was assassinated in 1914, Europeans at that time were still wandering in the rapid development of capitalism, thinking about making hot air balloons to travel around the world.

It has been a long time since I made predictions about the international environment, so I will do it once today.

cannot be said to be 100% accurate because the world is full of uncertainty.

Just like no one would predict that the assassination of the Grand Duke Ferdinand in Sarajevo was in 1914. At that time, Europeans were still wandering in the rapid development of capitalism, thinking about traveling around the world through hot air balloons.

How could they have thought that a world war broke out this year, and then, after another 31 years, World War II broke out and Europe was ruined.

Since then, Europe has lost its position as the center of the world. Until today, it cannot beat the United States. It must establish an EU to barely confront the economy.

But in terms of military affairs, Europe is completely a vassal of the United States and is restricted by NATO. Do you think NATO is to protect European countries from Russian invasion?

This is just a good word and one of the reasons. The most important thing is to control European countries.

In military terms, I ask you to go east, do you still dare to go west? I asked you to bomb, would you dare not get this bomb down?

So, the world situation is actually full of uncertainty and unpredictability, which is the fun of our research.

All our views and conclusions today are analyzed based on the existing world situation and data, but they are not guaranteed. If Zelensky dies tomorrow, what accident will happen to Biden? Then this is a earth-shaking change.

But then, let’s talk about what we do then.

First talk about today's things.

According to the current situation, after analysis, I came to a conclusion-- There may be a quit between Russia and Ukraine for a period of time.

piece by piece, but there will be no battles on a large scale, the battle between the two sides will be successful in fighting, and the battle between the large legions will no longer be possible.

At least the whole of early November, it will become extremely calm and peaceful.

Why do you say this?

Didn’t I say in my article a few days ago that the situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war is about to change, and have all countries begun the second wave of evacuation of overseas Chinese?

Yes, that's right.

At that time, the situation really felt that the nuclear war was about to break out. Both NATO and Russia seemed to be preparing to use Ukraine as a nuclear test site and throw nuclear bombs here.

But, this force comes and goes quickly.

Just like the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, this was the most serious head-on confrontation between the two sides during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Everyone thought that a global nuclear war was about to break out, but the Soviet Union took the initiative to withdraw the missile from Cuba.

is the same now, it seems that overnight, the battle suddenly stopped fighting.

First look at the reaction of Russia:

Just as everyone was paying attention to the stampede in Itaewon, South Korea, a message suddenly came from CCTV.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that leadership, including Russian President Putin, is ready to talk to the West.

What signal is this?

releases a friendly signal of active summing. Before

, didn’t Putin still say that if the West dares to threaten Russia’s local security, then will Russia use nuclear weapons to defend itself?

It can be said that he was clenching his fists at that time, and his sword was tense.

But now, the fist was released at once, and both sides greeted each other with a smile and prepared for negotiation. What exactly happened in

?

The main reason is:

Russia's battle is actually a bit unsuccessful.

Throughout history, war is not just about war, but all things are money, all money, and all money.

Remember the time before that, Ukraine blew up the Crimea Bridge, and then Russia began to counterattack, launching missiles, and bombing many Ukrainian cities such as Kiev.

Many people watched it at that time, and it was so exciting.

But this addiction has not been enough, and Russia has finished blowing up.

isn't that good? If you are poor, you will be interspersed with tactics, and if you are successful, you will be blown up by me.

Doesn’t Russia want to blow directly, destroy the vital forces of the Ukrainian army, and then send ground troops to harvest? Of course I thought about it, but those missiles are all precious, so I have to save some use.

The missiles used in Russia are now produced from 2011 to 2017. We all know that missiles are usually used from morning to late, first using the old ones, and then slowly coming back.

has been used by Russia for 17 years, and it can be seen that there is not much inventory, so of course, you have to save some use.

Some people say that since the missile is gone, then we should produce it again as soon as possible. Russia actually wants to do it too, but producing missiles requires time and money.

Russia wants to be rich and generous.

But they can't do it.

In 2021, Russia's national GDP was only US$178 million.

What is this concept?

It seems that this money is quite large, more than ten trillion US dollars.

This is a trillion yuan. I guess I can’t count this money in my life.

However, for a country, especially Russia, which has the largest territory in the world, this is a bit too little.

Let’s talk about another set of data.

Guangdong Province's GDP in 2021 is 12.44 trillion yuan. If it is converted into US dollars, of course, it cannot be calculated based on our current RMB exchange rate.

because that cannot reflect the real GDP level at that time.

I checked the data and calculated based on the exchange rate at the end of 21, it should be about 1.92 trillion US dollars.

Did you see it? A huge Russia, but the GDP can't keep up with our country's Guangdong Province.

That’s it, how can you fight and how can you produce strategic materials?

All the economic activities of the country can be paused, and all the people are all focused on developing the military?

This is possible, but Putin wants to announce that the whole country has entered a state of full war mobilization.

But in this way, the military industry can be guaranteed, but other aspects of production cannot keep up, and the daily lives of Russian people will also be affected.

Unless it is absolutely necessary, Russia will not conduct a comprehensive mobilization. Of course, this also explains why Russia has not declared war on Ukraine.

Therefore, with limited funds, Russia's missiles have to save some money and cannot use them all at will.

If the Crimea Bridge had not been bombed and the Ukrainian National Security Bureau had run to its hinterland to carry out terrorist attacks, it was estimated that Putin would not have gritted his teeth and fired so many missiles.

In summary, this is the first reason, money.

It is difficult to move forward without money. The same is true for the country. Although Russia sells oil and natural gas, it cannot afford to burn like this. The national finance has other uses.

But, it won’t work if you don’t fight this battle.

So, I can only play a small amount, stop for the time being, take a break, and take a breath.

Moreover, the four states in eastern Wu and eastern have now completed the referendum and joined Russia.

Now, Russia hopes to negotiate with the West so that the international community can accept this.

is just a fact now. In fact, Russia has obtained the four prefectures in the east of Wu and East, and Russia wants to take it out from a legal perspective.

This way, a strategic buffer can be established, which is not far from the goal of their special military operations.

So, for the upcoming G20 summit, Putin, who has been invited by Indonesian President Joko Widodo, is considering the possibility of attending.

Of course, you can't say go directly. You have to be reserved, take a look, talk, and wait.

mainly depends on the United States, and what Biden means.

If the negotiation goes smoothly, maybe Putin and Biden will meet in Indonesia.

Russia is thinking now, wait a moment, no matter whether it can be negotiated or not, it is okay to see if Biden has any effect.

In short, if you really can't agree, it's not too late to fight then.

Anyway, on the 28th, Shoigu had reported to Putin the progress of some mobilization.

Shoigu said that the target set by some mobilization has been completed

The troops have been assembled. Although they are all veterans, they also need some effort to train and run-in. This time is just right.

Russia's attitude is: wait.

For Ukraine, at the beginning, they wanted to fight, and wanted to take advantage of the victory of the big counterattack in September, pursue the victory, and regain the four states in eastern Ukraine and even Crimea in one go.

However, this month has passed.

htmlIt's okay if you said this in early October, but at that time, everyone was still in their mood.

But now, as the saying goes, one move will fade again, and three times will be exhausted.

The momentum is gone now.

Moreover, how to fight this battle in Ukraine is not to listen to himself or Zelensky.

The current Ukrainian government is a puppet government, and they have to listen to the United States and Western countries behind them.

Biden has to worry about two things in the United States.

One is in China. The midterm election is coming soon, and it is still eight or nine days left. This is the top priority and it is related to whether he can continue to be president in 2024. What a critical point.

So, Biden's mind is all about this.

The second thing is to meet Putin. You said that you will be in a big upside down. How can you open up this? How can you meet this side?

So, for Biden, it is impossible for Ukraine to stop, because it violates the current mainstream political correctness of Western society.

But, putting it aside for the time being is the best result.

1 The United States has finished talking about it, and the next thing is what European countries mean.

In the UK, the new prime minister has just come to power and is busy building the economy. His ex-girlfriend Tras has left him a lot of messes. Tell me, Sunak has no time to worry about Ukraine.

Ukraine's Zelensky has never liked Britain the most. Isn't the one who praises the most? Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson?

But now, there have been several groups of people in the UK. Boris Johnson has stepped down. I am afraid that the UK can’t count on it anymore.

Then, look at Germany again.

Germany is the center of the European economy and has the US reputation as the "EU Economic Engine".

Germany previously supported Ukraine.

But now, German Chancellor Schultz is about to visit China on November 4th.

People are busy doing business with us.

Isn’t there a joke that says so?

"The Germans used to shout that they would go to China to beg for alms."

This actually reflects the problem very much.

Germany is busy revitalizing its economy, and they value cooperation with China very much.

At this stage, how can we support Ukraine to continue fighting?

The United States, Britain, and Germany have no time to support it.

The last big country is France.

What's the use of France just supporting Ukraine? The key is that the French and Germany But old enemies, the two countries have actually been competing in business.

Now that I see Germany coming to do business with China and discuss trade, can France not be jealous?

A few months ago, the French still wanted to add more Airbus orders we signed with France.

Even if the French have the intention to support Ukraine, they saw that the big brothers were watching, so they could just wait and see. No matter what, they would like to wait and see before the G20 summit was over.

At that time, if Putin comes, Leaders of various countries met him and talked about it after the chat.

Even if you have to wait, you have to wait until the end of November.

So, this is the basis for my judgment. In the short term, at least before the end of November, there will be no major war between Russia and Ukraine, and everyone's tense nerves can finally relax.

is just right, the World Cup is coming soon, isn't it a fun to watch the ball together?

So, for us, the world The situation is a little more stable, which is also good for us.

I once said:

Those who are good at fighting have never had great achievements.

Governing the country with justice, using strange troops, and winning the world with nothing to do.

Don't doubt it, that's right, this is what I said.