Air Force Colonel , Professor Dai Xu of the Institute of Strategic Studies of the National Defense University once publicly stated that the United States has begun its sixth strategic shift, and China must be highly vigilant about this. Dai Xu also believes that in the face of the full encirclement of the United States, we should first clarify the motivation and starting point behind it, so that we can confront each other and fight against each other.
So, what are the first five strategic transfers of the United States, and can China win this "peak showdown"?
To answer this question, let’s first understand the growth history of the United States and see how it defeated every previous opponent and then developed into the world’s largest country. After the War of Independence
War of Independence , US President James Monroe proposed the famous " Monroeism " based on the national strength and international environment at that time.
means that the US government believes that European powers should no longer interfere in American affairs, and the United States will remain neutral in the disputes between European countries.
Although the "Monroeism" looks relatively "moderate and conservative", it has laid the foundation for the United States to dominate the American continent in the future and can also be regarded as the "first strategic transfer" of the United States.
Ninety years after the birth of "Monroeism", the United States started the "second strategic transfer" with the power of the Spanish-American War. At the end of the war, the United States took advantage of the exhaustion of several major European powers and suddenly joined the war, and finally participated in the division of power after the war as a victorious country. After the First World War, the United States experienced six years of " Coolidge prosperity ", and its overall national strength increased greatly. It was also from this time that the United States began to completely replace the traditional European power and became the veritable world's largest power.
If the United States during World War I was just a test, then The United States in World War II is undoubtedly the undisputed protagonist.
After World War II, the United States, as the biggest contributor to the victory of this war, gained a high reputation and prestige.
Under the leadership of the United States and the Soviet Union and other countries, the new world order after the war, namely, Yalta system , was officially established.
The United States has also established a new global hegemony through " Marshall Plan " and " Bretton Woods System ". This is the "third strategic transfer" of the United States.
After dismembering the colonial systems of Britain, France and other countries, the United States pointed the finger at the former ally of the Soviet Union. For the United States at that time, the Soviet Union was the only country that could compete with ideology, military, economic, etc.
In order to curb the global expansion of the socialist camp led by the Soviet Union, the United States can be said to have tried its best and paid a considerable price, and finally dragged it down in the late 1980s.
After the end of the Cold War , the United States immediately extended its "magic capture" to the Middle East, which is located at the intersection of Europe, Asia and Africa, thus starting the "fifth strategic transfer" of the United States.
The reason why the United States is interested in Middle East is not only the region’s significant strategic position, but its rich oil reserves are also a factor that cannot be ignored.
It successively gained a foothold in the Middle East and controlled the local oil lifeline through the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 Iraq War .
Although the United States has since withdrawn most of its military power, the Iraqi government, which was supported by it, still bows to the United States and obeys the order. In the foreseeable future, the United States' influence in the Middle East should not fluctuate much.
From the first five strategic transfers of the United States, we can see that when the United States' national strength is still weak, it first chooses to expand its limited expansion in the region, and after its national strength is improved, it will expand its influence to Europe, and finally the entire world.
Although there are many blind moves like the Second War of Independence and strategic mistakes such as Vietnam War , overall, the United States is quite stable and reasonable in controlling the timing and path selection of foreign expansion, and its methods are not unacquainted.
For China, the first five strategic transfers of the United States are also the process of our evolution from a backward autocratic dynasty to a socialist country , and then developing into the world's second largest economy .
For more than two hundred years, the relationship between China and the United States seems to have been repeatedly transforming between enemies and friends, full of historical paradoxes and drama.
With China's comprehensive national strength and international influence increasing, the United States' guardianship and hostility towards China have begun to increase day by day, and the relationship between the two countries has also undergone qualitative changes.
If the Soviet Union at that time only made the United States feel "fear" in military terms and Japan only poses a "threat" to the United States economically, then today's China has made Americans feel all-round challenges in many fields such as politics, economy, science and technology, and military.
Although Sino-US relations have shown signs of decline since Bush Jr. 2's rule, its significant deterioration should have begun in the second half of Trump's rule.
After the Biden administration came to power, the US domestic and diplomatic affairs have undergone considerable changes, but it has maintained a high degree of consistency with the previous government in its policy toward China. The Biden administration believes that the next ten years will be a decisive decade in which Sino-US competition is of significance.
To this end, the United States will continue to shrink its front line. While consolidating its traditional allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, it will further win over countries such as India, Vietnam, and Philippines that have territorial disputes with China to jointly "anti China", and repeatedly test China's bottom line by "cutting sausages", forcing China to make strategic mistakes.
Although China has repeatedly stated that "the Pacific Ocean is large enough to accommodate China and the United States" and hopes that the two countries can uphold the spirit of non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation, focus on cooperation, manage differences, and promote the healthy and stable development of China-US relations, various signs show that China's strategy of keeping a low profile seems to be difficult to maintain.
Now, in the new version of the "U.S. National Security Strategy Report " released by the White House , China has been clearly regarded as "the only world's number one competitor that is the priority."
The US side believes that "China is the only country willing to reconstruct the world order and increasingly have the ability to achieve this goal in the fields of economy, diplomacy, military and technology. Therefore, the US government must make maintaining its lasting competitive advantage over China the most priority."
It can be seen that the United States has made sufficient preparations to deal with China, and "anti-China" has become a rare consensus among the two parties in the United States at present. Since its founding, the United States has been a country that combines idealism and realism.
When it thinks its social system and international status are challenged, it will inevitably make various stress responses and take various means, either light or dark.
Historically, the United States has never been rude to any competitor, even its own allies: Japan in the past and the current EU , when necessary, they will knock on bones and suck marrow and squeeze out the remaining little oil and water.
Now the United States not only continuously puts pressure on China on "sensitive issues" such as South China Sea , Taiwan, and Hong Kong, but also blocks and suppresses China in many fields such as politics, military, economy, science and technology, and public opinion, and tries to decouple China in terms of science and technology, economy and trade.
His ruthless attack, clear goals, and firm determination almost exceeded everyone's expectations.
Some people believe that the root of the Sino-US contradiction lies in ideology. As long as China takes the capitalist path and realizes the so-called "democracy and freedom", the Sino-US contradiction will be resolved.
The author really cannot agree with this statement.
The main reason for the confrontation between China and the United States is the irreconcilable conflict of interests between the two countries that the United States believes.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken once declared to the outside world: the world cannot leave the leadership of the United States, and the United States must occupy a leading position in it.
According to this logic, as long as China has the possibility of threatening US hegemony, China is the enemy of the United States, just as even if Russia changes its social system and as long as it is placed there, the United States will continue to compress its strategic space.
No matter what political system China adopts, it is impossible for it to make concessions on issues such as the South China Sea, Taiwan, Diaoyu Islands, and Diaoyu Islands, and it is impossible to cut off its own arms in core competitiveness such as high-tech.
For the British and American countries, all efforts by the Chinese government to maintain territorial integrity and achieve scientific and technological breakthroughs can be regarded as a threat and challenge to The Western world . We are unable to completely eliminate this " Western-centric " that is common around the world, so we can only find a way to deal with it.
As the only superpower in the world, the United States is indeed a very difficult opponent for China. If we want to compete with such a powerful opponent for a long time, we must attach great importance to it and objectively evaluate it. We must not take it lightly or blindly confident.
Now many people believe that the United States has many internal conflicts and its national strength is declining. Such views are really biased.
The decline of the United States is certainly an indisputable fact, but this decline is first and for a very long process.
Judging from the international conflicts that the United States has participated in over the years, it can still achieve "one call and a hundred responses" at least for most of the time. In addition, we should not overestimate the economic relationship between China and the United States. Don’t think that with this "ballast stone", there would be no situation like the "US-Soviet Cold War" back then.
As early as a few years ago, the United States began to look for China's "spare tires" and tried every means to move part of its production capacity from China to other countries. Although this process is very slow, the big trend will not change. Finally, we should not be fooled by some of the "polite words" released by the United States from time to time.
The reason why the Biden administration has always claimed to the outside world that the United States does not seek to divide the world into two opposing and strict camps is just a slowdown.
The United States will first occupy the moral commanding heights, and then use this buffer period to formulate various policies to impose sanctions on China, supplemented by various despicable means to weaken China's national strength, and wait until the time is ripe before taking a "fatal blow" to China.
So, we don’t have to take some speeches from senior U.S. government officials too seriously. The chief designer of , Deng Xiaoping, has a very clear understanding of Sino-US relations. He believes that we must have the worst-case plan for the United States, and do not be afraid of regression in Sino-US relations, nor are we afraid of stagnation...
Therefore, in dealing with Sino-US relations, we must not only avoid intensifying contradictions, but also make unprincipled concessions and compromises. Since Sino-US relations are basically a foregone conclusion, what China needs to do is to try to delay the showdown time, strive to strengthen its own strength, and make its opponents afraid of making moves.
If nothing big surprise occurs, the next ten years should be a high-risk period for Sino-US relations. During this period, China is likely to surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy.
But at the same time, the comprehensive national strength and military strength of China and the United States will still maintain a relatively obvious gap.
For the United States, this may be the last opportunity to contain China within decades, so it is likely to create wild troubles in a direction that is unfavorable to China or in an unfavorable period. We must be fully prepared for this.
China's rise is destined to not be smooth sailing. The author believes that as long as China can maintain strategic determination, adhere to the path of peaceful development, unite all forces that can be united, and make plans for various emergencies, it will definitely be invincible in the game with the United States.
Considering that over the years, the United States has hardly fought a war of uncertainty and it is difficult for it to withstand the failure of a large-scale war, when the comprehensive national strength and military strength of China and the United States are approaching, the United States may dispel the idea of confrontation with China for cost and cost considerations. At that time, Sino-US relations may turn a new page.
