The rise of a great power requires many conditions, such as advanced technology, strong economy and strong military power. If these three are met, then the "great power status" is basically adequate, but it needs to be pointed out that, first, "great power status" "position" does not mean "hegemony". There can be many great powers, but hegemony There is often only one master; secondly, in addition to the above-mentioned "hardware", the rise of a great power also requires a very important "software", which is a brilliant "strategy". If the "software" is not in place, even if it has advanced With advanced science and technology, strong economic and military strength, it is also very likely that it will "rise but not rise".
Here are ready-made examples of both pros and cons. Let’s talk about the negative example first. On the eve of the outbreak of and , Germany was among the best in technology and economy, and it was even more advanced in terms of military strength. It seemed that it should be a “natural” thing to upgrade from a “great power” to a “hegemon”. . Therefore, the Kaiser categorically abandoned the "peaceful rise" strategy formulated by "Iron Chancellor" Bismarck for Germany and began to attack on all sides, which eventually led to the outbreak of "World War I". The outcome of the war is also clear to everyone. Although Germany had the most powerful army at the time, it was eventually "jointly defeated" by the United States, Britain and France, and its "imperial hegemony" suffered a heavy setback.
Let’s talk about positive examples. The United States, which has “two oceans in the east and west, and no strong enemies in the north and south”, quickly healed the wounds of the war between the north and the south by assassinating Lincoln after the civil war, and its national power increased significantly. At the end of the 19th century, about Sino-Japanese War Before and after the war , it was already the most powerful economy in the world. However, the United States has been "hiding its power and biding its time", promoting the "Monroe Doctrine", saying it will "never interfere" in European affairs, and hopes that European powers will not extend their hands to the Americas. Finally waited for the outbreak of World War I and World War II . The United States relied on its strong industrial and economic strength to defeat Germany and Japan by exploding troops and ships and dominated the world.
Obviously, the main reason why Germany "failed to rise" twice in a row was not that its "hardware" was not enough, but that Germany did not know the principle of "the mantis stalks the cicada, and the oriole follows behind", and ended up helping the United States to "marry." Clothes". In fact, as long as Germany is more patient, it can be expected that sooner or later the rising United States and Britain will face each other at war. When comes out to pick peaches, it will be much easier. However, Germany crippled Britain, allowing the United States to easily take over the "scepter" of global hegemony from Britain after the war. However, Germany was "defeated twice" and "divided twice", and its ambitious hegemony came to nothing in the blink of an eye.
What does this mean? It illustrates two points. First, the rise of great powers is not just a competition in economy, technology, and military power, but also a collision of "intelligence." If there is a lack of brilliant "strategy," even if the "hardware" is enough, it will eventually be very difficult. It may “rise but not rise” or even “fall apart”. The Germans lost their "strategic determination" at the critical moment and abandoned Bismarck's solid strategy of "forming allies and waiting for the right time." This is actually the German version of "build walls high, accumulate grain widely, and slow down claims." King", so Germany almost lost the opportunity to become a "hegemon" forever.
Second, what is the most important thing for the rise of a great power? They are "strategic talents". The concept of does not seem to exist in China until now, or it is "unclear". So what is "strategic talent"? Simply put, he is the "planner" of the rise of a great power. The "Iron-Blooded Prime Minister" Bismarck is the top "strategic talent" and has planned a safe "rise route" for Germany. Our "One Belt, One Road" is also a generous "strategy". However, it needs to be pointed out that in addition to formulating a "route for rise", one must also "understand opportunities" and anticipate how opponents will make moves to avoid "falling into a trap."
For example, Putin accidentally fell into the "strategic trap" set by the United States. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict not only cost Russia a heavy price, but also made China extremely passive. Only the United States made "a lot of money" "Bo Ying" not only sells arms, oil, and natural gas at high prices, but also recruits European countries for "zero-yuan purchases" and establishes an anti-Russian and anti-China "united front." It can be seen from this that the "grand military advisers" of the White House can create a war thousands of miles away without leaving home or firing a "shot or a bullet", trapping Russia, and threatening China to Ukraine mode "copy and paste" to the Taiwan Strait.
That movie line puts it well, "What is the most expensive thing in the 21st century? Talent." What kind of talent is the most precious? There is no doubt that he is a "strategic talent" who understands the game between great powers. The economy can be built up, science and technology can be accumulated, and the military can be trained, but where can we find "strategic talents"? Liu Bei "visited the thatched cottage three times", and with the help of Zhuge Liang, he finally became an emperor; Cao Cao sighed in tears, if Guo Fengxiao was still there, there would be no defeat in Chibi, and the world would not be divided into three parts. It can be seen that is "easy to get a thousand troops, but hard to find a general", let alone the "national mentor" and the chief architect of the "rise route", he is even more "phoenix feathers and scales".
Saying so much is just to emphasize one point. Don’t think that your economy has improved, your technology has caught up, and your military has become stronger. “Rise” is a matter of course. No, rise is the same as “childbirth”. Who said that pregnancy is ten years? Will "mother and child be safe" for sure? "Big countries" often exist, but "hegemons" do not often exist. When we have developed to this point, we are no longer an ordinary "big country". Even if we continue to call ourselves a "developing country", the United States will regard China as a "developing country". "A thorn in one's side", "a thorn in one's flesh", and "one must get rid of it quickly". This is something we cannot change even if we say "not to seek hegemony" ten thousand times.
So, what is China lacking now? There are two things missing, one is "time" and the other is "strategic talent". Note that they are "strategic talents", not "tactical talents". The latter can handle local problems. For example, this Taiwan Strait crisis , where is the PLA military exercise, how intense is the military exercise, and what weapons are launched, Why put Pelosi entered, and why she was allowed to leave, why the People's Liberation Army's military exercises "perfectly missed" Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, etc. No matter how beautifully these are handled, they cannot be said to be "strategic talents." This is just "Dismantle the trick as you see it", it's just that the "dismantling" is more beautiful.
A true "strategic talent" does not have such "craftsmanship". Generally speaking, you cannot see his move. Only when the opponent notices that he is injured will he know that he has made a move. Let’s take an example that everyone knows, that is The struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union for hegemony . Why did the Soviet Union eventually disintegrate? It was the result of the “peaceful evolution” of the United States. But when this strategy was first launched, who knows where? When the Soviet Union "collapsed" overnight and the United States ended this nuclear-armed superpower "without firing a single shot," everyone analyzed it afterwards and concluded that the "autopsy report" turned out to be that of the United States. "Peaceful evolution".
This is the top "strategic talent". Is he more terrifying than guns and atomic bombs ? Moreover, to be honest, it is basically "unpreventable" for the "strategic master" to take action, unless the country also has "strategic talents" of the same level, and the monarch must be "good at accepting advice". For example, Fan Zeng had long advised Xiang Yu to kill Liu Bang, but Xiang Yu didn't listen. Is there any way to do it? In the end, Fan Zeng "died of anger". On the other hand, Liu Bang "followed advice readily", even if the common people came to him with advice, as long as it made sense, he would listen to it. For example, Dingdu Guanzhong was put forward by an ordinary soldier of the Han army, Lou Jing.
Therefore, the rise of a great power is really not that simple. Everyone says that it is ultimately the "human factor" that determines the outcome of a war. This is not the case in the game of great powers. Don't think that "hardware" is enough. The rise is "natural" matter. That's why Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty said, "If you want to achieve extraordinary achievements, you must wait for extraordinary people." He himself was a great talent and strategy, and he was an extraordinary person. He also met such famous generals as Wei Qing and Huo Qubing , so that we can After conquering the Xiongnu in the north, swallowing up the Baiyue in the south, hollowing out the western regions, and annexing Korea in the east, the Han Dynasty became the real "overlord", on par with the Roman Empire, and Chinese civilization reached the pinnacle of the world.
So, how to find “strategic talents”? There is a very philosophical saying in " Tianmu Hongchen ", "Don't follow the road when you see it, and don't follow the path when you see it." It means, "Seek truth from facts and never stick to one method". We really need to find talents instead of "doing the work". "Looks like this", if believes that "I am the best in the world", do you still need to think about "visiting the thatched cottage three times"? That can't be found. Xiang Yu just looks like "I am the best in the world", so talents stay away from him, but Liu Bang honestly admits that he is not as good as Zhang Liang, Xiao He and Han Xin , puts himself very low, so people go to him like "all rivers return to the sea". The rise of
depends on hardware, software, and "timing." Timing sometimes comes from "heroes create the situation," but more often it comes from "waiting." Germany cannot wait, and the United States takes advantage. In the stock market, there is a "famous saying" that everyone knows, but most people can't do it, that is "Waiting is also a virtue". This iron law also applies to "big powers competing for hegemony", related The examples are numerous. Therefore, as China rises, we must not be impatient. It doesn't matter if we go slow, but we must be steady. We must sincerely look for strategic talents and give talents a path to rise. Only in this way can we "achieve hegemony."
