I finished writing the last column on Saturday afternoon, because Sunday was Brother Haipeng’s memorial service. I wrote it in a hurry, and there was an error: the article said fishermen from Wenzhou, but the correct one was fishermen from Shitang, Wenling, Taizhou. I would like

The Mystery of Japan and Japan's "Hide Your Power and bide your time"

Hashimoto Takunori

I finished writing the last column on Saturday afternoon, because Sunday was the memorial service of Brother Haipeng, so I rushed to write it, and there was an error: I wrote Wenzhou The fishermen, or the fishermen in Shitang, Wenling, Taizhou, would like to express my apologies to everyone.

and Brother Haipeng, the most talked about on the Internet is history. He is the person with the best memory I have ever met. He can pick up all kinds of allusions at his fingertips, and he is not pedantic. He will cleverly make various analogies to let you understand the mystery. .

He has passed away. I hope that I can always maintain my original intention and continue to have my own unique opinions and views on history and society.

Probably Haipeng's departure was a big blow to me. I put the column I originally wanted to write on hold for the time being. I happened to have "Edo Japan" by Honmoro Miya on hand, and I flipped through it. I thought I had nothing to do, so I wrote it down. Some thoughts.

The Meiji Restoration is the most important event in Japanese history, but there are many mysteries that remain unsolved in this event:

The first mystery: the mysterious death of Emperor Xiaomei ( Emperor Meiji ). It is said that the emperor had a close relationship with the shogunate and was unwilling to fall out with the shogunate. He was poisoned by the reformers among the ministers. Later, when the reform was successful, these reformers were afraid that they would poison the emperor and had to do their best to contribute to Japan's modernization. So

The second mystery: Sakamoto Ryoma 's death. This samurai from Tosa Domain (Kochi Prefecture) reached an agreement with the shogunate. The shogun happily handed over his power and formed a coalition government with the reformers. If this plan succeeds, there will be no such thing as the main militant factions Saigo Takamori , Iwakura Tomoshi, etc. Perhaps the development of Japan's Restoration will be a different story.

However, when Satsuma, Choshu and others rose up against the shogunate, Qingxi immediately "returned the great power to ". At this critical moment, Sakamoto Ryoma was assassinated. The peaceful evolution of Japanese politics turned into the armed unification of the southwestern forces, which also enabled the Choshu feudal system to control Japanese politics, which had long harmed Japan.

In fact, the path forward for each country is determined. The author believes that even if Sakamoto Ryoma survives, according to Saigo Takamori's temper, he will still solve the problem by force. It is the consensus of the reformers to completely expel the forces of the shogunate.

Back to Japan now. Recently, some people want to revive Japan's glory. The suggestion is that Japan should learn from China and keep a low profile. This author believes that when China and the United States confront each other, Japan will be the China of the past. It needs to fully stand on the standpoint of the United States and win U.S. support to restore Japan's economy.

The author believes that Japan’s problem is not that it is hiding its capabilities and biding its time, but that Japan’s current system is rigid and all kinds of creativity are restricted. If it cannot overturn and start over, Japan will not only fail to become the second China, but will also become the new Hawaii.

I just saw a set of trade data for various countries in May:

Germany trade deficit 1 billion euros

Vietnam's deficit 1.75 billion US dollars

Japan's deficit about 17.79 billion US dollars

South Korea's deficit 1.71 billion US dollars

India 23.33 billion US dollars

China's surplus 78.76 billion US dollar...

html China's economic performance in May was not good. Several important cities, including Shanghai, performed very poorly. I remember that at that time, Japanese "economists" came out again and said that China's economy was going to "collapse." Even so, the trade performance is still very impressive.

The current Chinese economy, as long as there is no external force to block it, should not have much doubt about catching up with the United States' GDP. Many people say that this is due to the "Russian-Ukrainian conflict", which is both correct and incorrect.

The background of the "Russian-Ukrainian conflict" is the outbreak of issues left over from the Cold War . NATO's eastward expansion and the rise of Russia's influence are the triggers of this conflict. If Russia had the strength of the Soviet Union, this conflict might not exist.

And China remains neutral in the "Russian-Ukrainian conflict", which means there is no end.Just like the battle between and , and the war between and did not reach the United States, the U.S. economy would develop rapidly. Maintaining neutrality is the best way to maximize benefits.

Japan says it wants to hide its capabilities and bide its time, but it follows the United States in imposing the most severe "sanctions" on Russia, giving no face to the Russians. It will not do Japan any good to break up. Japan relies on Russia for about 20% of its energy. Even if it can be imported from other places, the cost for Japan will be much higher than it is now.

On the other hand, China has not mentioned keeping a low profile recently, because no matter how low-key you are, people will see you as a "challenge". The author has always said that China needs to do its best. To give an example, the recent earthquake in Afghanistan required international assistance, but the United States and other Western countries did not lend a helping hand ( During the Tangshan earthquake , the United States also asked China if it needed assistance, but China refused), but China sent Y-20 aircraft for transportation A large amount of supplies were sent, and China's actions were praised by the local people. This is the best way to break the American siege and siege, and use practical actions to educate Americans on how to behave.

The above are my thoughts on this week.

Original name: Use practical actions to educate Americans on how to behave