Vietnam and India are two countries that are developing relatively quickly among emerging economies. They are also two countries with relatively high potential. Many people think that Vietnam and India will be comparable to our country, but some people think that potential is potential, not which country. They can all copy our country's successful experience, especially Vietnam, which is not a super-populated country with a vast area and a population of more than 1 billion like China and India. It is even less likely to achieve such achievements as I have. I think the upper limit of Vietnam is Japan.
I don’t know if everyone agrees with this view. If Vietnam wants to become a developed country with a population of over 100 million like Japan, there is still hope, but this is also very difficult.
In terms of population, Vietnam's population is 98.2 million, Japan's population is 2.126 billion, Vietnam's population is still growing, and Japan's population has been declining for more than ten consecutive years. Judging from Vietnam's level of development and total population fertility rate, it is very possible that Vietnam's population will reach Japan's peak of 128 million. Vietnam covers an area of 329,600 square kilometers and Japan covers an area of 378,000 square kilometers. There is not much difference. However, Vietnam is on the mainland and Japan is an island country. It is more convenient for Vietnam to radiate to the surrounding areas than Japan. Overall, the talent gap between the two countries is not too big.
Therefore, it is possible for Vietnam to become a developed country with a per capita GDPhtml of more than 230,000 US dollars. However, given Vietnam's size and resources, a population of more than 100 million would be a relatively balanced state. Any more would cause serious squeeze on living space and impose a huge burden on development.
So Vietnam’s ideal state is to become a developed country with a population of more than 100 million. If the population is larger than 200 million, it will be exponentially more difficult for Vietnam to become a developed country.
From this point of view, the upper limit of Vietnam is Japan, becoming a developed country with a population of more than 100 million.
But this still overestimates Vietnam and underestimates Japan. The heights Japan's economy has reached are simply unreachable in Vietnam.
Japan's achievements have great historical reasons. Vietnam cannot copy Japan's achievements at all.
To give a simple example, Japan's GDP reached 72.64% of the United States and 17.93% of the world at its peak. This height is almost impossible for Vietnam to reach. . In 2021, the U.S. GDP will reach 23.02 trillion U.S. dollars, and the global GDP will reach 94.94 trillion U.S. dollars. Based on the U.S.'s 72.62% share, Vietnam's GDP will reach 16.72 trillion U.S. dollars, and per capita GDP will reach about 170,000 U.S. dollars. Based on a global share of 17.93%, Vietnam's GDP will reach 17.02 trillion U.S. dollars, and per capita GDP will exceed 170,000 U.S. dollars.
This is still the level of 2021. The higher the value is in the future, the more difficult it will be for Vietnam to achieve it. In fact, this is basically impossible to achieve.
With a population of more than 100 million, GDP per capita reaching US$30,000 and reaching US$170,000 are completely different concepts. They represent completely different levels of productivity. Unless Vietnam can stand at the pinnacle of human technology, it will not be able to achieve it.
