Everyone knows that Lithuania has been dancing happily recently, but this country may face the same disaster as Ukraine in the near future. Why do you say this?
There is a saying in the book "Han Feizi": "If the country is small but does not feel humble, if the country is small but does not fear the strong, if the country is rude and insults the big neighbors, if the country is greedy and has poor friends, it will be destroyed. "The original meaning of this sentence is that if a country is weak and cannot put down its posture and maintain a humble attitude; the country itself is very weak but has no respect for powerful countries and may even offend its powerful neighbors. country, behaved extremely rudely and insulted it. Under such circumstances, greedy, arbitrary and clumsy diplomacy was enough to bring down the country.
Why is Ukraine facing the situation of being subjugated now? The answer can be imagined. It is precisely because it did not realize the geographical location of its own country, that it was not strong enough, or even weak, and because it did not follow the teachings of "Han Feizi" mentioned above, it actually attacked the country. The powerful neighbor Russia was extremely humiliated, which not only undermined the security of both countries, but also ultimately triggered this national war.
Lithuania is running wildly on the road to death, getting further and further away!
Ukraine is facing the situation of being subjugated, and Lithuania, another small country in Central and Eastern Europe , is also getting closer and closer on this road. Others are trying their best to stay away from the conflict, but it is rushing all the way towards annihilation.
We all know that there is an enclave between Russia, Poland and Lithuania that is not connected to the Russian mainland - Kaliningrad . This place, located in the southern part of the Sambia Peninsula, formerly known as Koenigsberg, was first established by the Teutonic Knights Northern Crusaders in 1255. It was successively occupied by the Teutonic Knights, the Principality of Prussia and East Prussia. Lu was designated as the capital or capital.
Enclave - Kaliningrad (picture source network)
Königsberg was once one of the cultural centers of Germany. It was occupied by the Soviet Red Army during World War II . Then according to the "Postan Proclamation", this territory was assigned to the Soviet Union. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia inherited this enclave in accordance with relevant treaties.
Step 1: Restrict land transportation in the Russian enclave
The Kaliningrad enclave used to rely mainly on land for supplies, that is, operations from Belarus through Lithuania, supplemented by some sea and air support. However, just recently on June 18, Lithuania announced that it would expand the ban on transit transportation in Kaliningrad from rail transportation to road transportation, which means that Kaliningrad's land supply lines are basically interrupted. Unable to operate, we can only go around in a large circle and resupply from the sea. However, if adopts this method, the cost will definitely be very high. To transport goods from other parts of Russia, such as iron ore, coal and construction materials, they can only be transported to Kaliningrad through long-term sea transportation.
Picture source network
Russia's response
In this regard, on June 20, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also issued a relevant statement: Lithuania banned the transportation of goods via domestic railways to the Russian enclave Kaliningrad Oblast , and warned that if the Lithuanian If transportation is not resumed, Russia will respond accordingly. Russia believes that Cubic measures violate international legal obligations, especially the joint statement signed by Russia and the European Union on transit issues between the Kaliningrad Oblast and other territories of the Russian Federation. If cargo transportation fails to resume in the near future, Russia reserves the right to take action to safeguard national interests.
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov also issued a warning, saying that Lithuania's move was unprecedented and illegal, and Russia regarded this as part of the blockade of Russia. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Lanzbergis responded on the 20th that the ban on the transshipment of goods through Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast was not Lithuania's decision, but was made based on the EU's relevant sanctions against Russia.
For Russia, in the past, Kaliningrad State's supplies mainly relied on railways and natural gas pipelines to obtain goods and energy from other regions of Russia. The only railway between Russia and the region passes through Lithuania. Based on the EU's policy on Russia Due to sanctions, the Lithuanian Railways notified Russia that starting from June 18, it will restrict cargo transportation operations between Russia and Kaliningrad, including coal, metals, construction materials and advanced technology-related items.
Lithuania's actions were regarded as hostile acts by Russia. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova responded that the move was an openly hostile act and that Russia reserves the right to defend its national interests unless Lithuania immediately lifts these restrictions.
The Kaliningrad enclave is not only a knife stuck in the EU, but also a major worry for Russia.
For Russia, the Kaliningrad enclave is both a knife stuck in the EU and a major worry for itself. . Because once the conflict intensifies towards Lithuania and Poland imposes official media sanctions on Russia, Kaliningrad will lose the economic support of Russia and the transshipment of goods will become extremely difficult. Will Russia give up this enclave? Of course not, then Russia will inevitably take a series of measures. What measures will Russia take? For example, directly deploying more missiles in Kaliningrad, targeting Lithuania or EU countries, and blocking the border between Belarus and Lithuania may be Moscow's countermeasures.
The picture comes from the Internet
However, the risk of this matter is not such a short-term military deployment or the blockade of the Belarusian border, or other countermeasures, but a systemic risk. Lithuania is both a member of the European Union and a member of NATO . The reason why such a small country dares to provoke Russia in this way is fundamentally a contradiction between NATO and Russia.
We all know that the current conflict between the EU and Russia has fallen into an irreconcilable situation. If we look at this irreconcilability over a longer period of time, it means that all major risks are systemic. Now, the flash point of conflicts between Russia, NATO and the EU is still Ukraine, but the war in Ukraine will eventually end. Now we have all seen that Russia's strategic goal is very clear, which is to carry out demilitarization and denazification war against Ukraine. It also has a strong will and will not give up until it achieves its goal.
As for Russia, Western countries such as Europe and the United States have imposed unprecedented sanctions, but the sanctions have caused little damage to the Russian economy overall for several months. No muscles or bones were broken, but he became more courageous as he fought. Although the war is still in eastern Ukraine, the war in Severodonetsk has come to an end. If the fighting continues, the situation in Ukraine will be very dangerous, but it is actually difficult to stop the Russian army from advancing with Western assistance alone.
Once Russia really advances to western Ukraine, in order to prevent the Russian army from advancing further, the United States and NATO countries are likely to allow Polish troops to enter Ukraine to stop the Russian army. It is almost inevitable that the two sides will erupt in military conflicts in western Ukraine in the future, but There was uncertainty about the outcome of the war. It is possible that the two sides will strike a regional balance in western Ukraine, and Russia will establish a new pro-Russian Ukrainian puppet regime in western Ukraine to form a geopolitical buffer. In this way, both parties can be temporarily stable for a while.
But by that time, if the Russian military becomes more courageous in the war and directly drives the Polish army back to Poland, and Russia no longer establishes any geographical buffer and directly deploys Russian troops to western Ukraine, it will mean that Russia and NATO They will face each other, and the contradictions at that time will become even more irreconcilable without space.
Picture source network
You can take a look at the map above. If Russia directly swallows Ukraine, where will the next focus of the competition between the two sides be? There is Moldova buffer between Ukraine and Romania , Hungary has a good relationship with Russia. Slovakia In the past, relations with Russia were not as intense as Poland and the Baltic countries . Obviously, the focus will be mainly on Poland and the three Baltic countries. Among Poland and the three Baltic countries, who is the most dangerous country? Poland is the strongest of the four countries mentioned above, and if the Russian army and the Polish army have decided the winner in stages, Poland will be more restrained for the time being.
Among the three Baltic countries, Estonia and Latvia in the north are directly adjacent to Russia and have always been relatively restrained. There are few extreme behaviors, but only Lithuania, not to mention a small country, has always been the most provocative country. More importantly, the railway from Russia to Kaliningrad passes through Lithuania, which determines that conflicts between Russia and Lithuania are more likely to intensify. And once the contradiction further sublimates and intensifies, Russia will definitely have the urge to open up the Kaliningrad supply line.
The next conflict flashpoint is likely to occur in Lithuania.
In this way, when the conflict between Russia and NATO further intensifies, what will happen when both sides no longer have Ukraine as a buffer?
Once there is a direct conflict, Russia will definitely find weak points, and Russia will advocate the inclusion of Belarus into the system. Belarus can only choose this way, and Lithuania will be counted no matter how it is calculated. More importantly, if NATO is unable to defend western Ukraine in the face of Russia and watches Ukraine's destruction, then some countries in Central and Eastern Europe will definitely be shaken in terms of will and security. By then, NATO's cohesion and stability will deteriorate. The next conflict flashpoint is likely to occur in Lithuania.
What needs to be pointed out in particular is that the United States itself is also on a path of no return. If the United States gradually loses its ability to exercise global hegemony in ten years, when NATO's ability to protect the former Soviet countries in Central and Eastern Europe becomes weaker. By then, Lithuania will face the same risks as Ukraine.
At the same time, we should see that Lithuania has completely offended another rising power by interfering in China's internal affairs on the Taiwan issue. This is going further and further down the road of seeking death. The trade between China and Lithuania is now basically close to zero, and it will be very difficult to restore trade between the two parties in the future.
Zuoshi led a delegation to visit Taiwan, once again breaking through China's bottom line
And just now, the Lithuanian government once again broke through China's bottom line. Its Ministry of Agriculture Parliamentary Undersecretary Gildrótis led a delegation to visit Taiwan on June 22. 3 days. I don’t know if you still remember that Gaddafi used the nuclear issue to create trouble for China at the United Nations, and later provoked China on the Taiwan issue. The grass on his grave is now as tall as a man.
For a small country, as the game between big powers becomes more and more intense in the future, if there is no support from big powers at critical moments, the country may be destroyed at any time. Lithuania is the country that has deeply offended the two major P5 countries, Russia and China. As the power of the United States declines, there will come a time when the United States' energy cannot effectively cover Central and Eastern Europe. I thought that at that time, it might be Lithuania’s turn as a small country facing another annihilation!
If you don't seek death, you won't die. Once Lithuania really tries to commit suicide in the future, then I think 2022 will be the year when it starts to commit suicide!
