This article was first published by "Star News Agency", and the editor-in-chief Shou Chang and the author authorized it to be pushed
Comrades, today we will talk about the UK's preparations to tear up the "Northern Ireland Protocol".
Regarding our understanding of this matter, we cannot just stay at the level of "it is a routine operation to cheat and cheat", but we must see:
1. The UK is advancing with the determination to burn the boat this time;
2. This move It will intensify multiple conflicts between Britain, Europe and the United States.
Especially regarding the relationship between Britain and the United States, from the perspective of a comprehensive game against the United States, only by accurately analyzing and making good use of the internal contradictions in the opponent's camp can we seize all fighter opportunities for our own use, so as to achieve the purpose of benefiting us and not benefiting the enemy.
1
Problem background and situation
Why do we say that the British are ready to burn the boat this time?
Let’s first talk about the origin of this problem, and then look at the reactions of the parties involved to the British action, and we will know how determined it is.
The ins and outs of the problem:
On July 24, 2019, Johnson took over the scepter of the British Prime Minister from Theresa May .
The reason why Mrs. May stepped down was because all three Brexit plans she proposed were rejected by the parliament. She even tried to force her to take the position of Prime Minister. It was a failed political gamble and she could only resign sadly.
Brexit famous scenes: May cried while reading her farewell speech
So, why is the Brexit plan so difficult to produce? The core problem of
is about the market, trade and tariff status of Northern Ireland .
Northern Ireland is part of the island of Ireland, but it is also a British territory.
Therefore, the British believe that no matter how autonomous or divided Northern Ireland is, it should still implement the laws and regulations of the British domestic market. Therefore, after Brexit, the customs and border inspection lines between the UK and Europe should be located between Northern Ireland and Ireland between.
is as follows:
As for EU , there was no immediate objection. After all, the British government made sense, so it left it to the people of Northern Ireland to choose.
The design dialogue is purely funny, any similarity is no coincidence
Then the British government returned to the country, and before it even spoke, it was seen that the people of Northern Ireland, who wanted to stay in the EU single market, were already sharpening their knives and waiting for it.
Yes, during the 2016 Brexit referendum, the people of Northern Ireland had 55.78% requests to stay in the EU, but in the end they were forced to follow Brexit. They were already angry, and now they will explode at the first touch. What can I say? They are also unwilling to make concessions on economic issues.
So this problem stumped many officials at No. 10 Downing Street.
Why do the people of Northern Ireland have the power to refuse concessions?
Because in 1998, the British government, which was seriously shadowed by the IRA, signed the "Belfast Agreement" with the Irish government in Belfast, the capital of Northern Ireland, stipulating that the people of Northern Ireland No more terrorist attacks, At the same time, the UK has returned the final decision-making power on Northern Ireland affairs to the people of Northern Ireland.
April 10, 1998: "Ulster is finally at peace"
The British insisted on calling Northern Ireland the Ulster region
Since then, the British government has only a symbolic presence in Northern Ireland, and its only support is its growing momentum. The shrinking unionist party.
In the summer and autumn of 2019, faced with the sound of sharpening knives, the Johnson government painfully recalled the days in the second half of the last century when the British were on tenterhooks under the bombs in Northern Ireland. So after some struggle, they made a decision that went against their ancestors. :
tearfully agreed that Northern Ireland would remain in the EU single market and implement EU laws and regulations. In the future, there will be no border checks between Northern Ireland and Ireland, but border checks will be set up between the mainland and the UK.
is as follows:
As compensation for the British compromise, all parties in Northern Ireland agreed to a symbolic clause:
The agreement will be voted on every four years to see if there is a chance to return to the British domestic market.
Of course, everyone knows that this is impossible. After the problem of
was resolved, the obstacles between the UK and the EU were finally cleared.
On December 8, 2020, the two sides reached a principled agreement on the implementation of the Brexit Agreement, and the United Kingdom promised to revoke the controversial provisions of the Internal Market Act.
On December 24, at the last moment of the end of the Brexit transition period at the end of the year, the two sides reached an agreement on a series of cooperative relations including trade, goods, services, fishing rights, transportation, energy, justice and other fields.
The UK has avoided the most brutal no-deal Brexit, and has become one with the EU.
The design dialogue is purely funny, and any similarities are not coincidental
However, this breakup came at the cost of the British government's substantial concessions. Johnson is eager to end the Brexit soap opera and start his so-called "Global Britain" era. , laying the foundation for Northern Ireland to further separate from the United Kingdom. Why does
lay the root of trouble?
Because such an arrangement is really troublesome, the EU's strict border inspections make it very complicated for goods and services from the British island to enter Northern Ireland, which greatly affects the efficiency of economic circulation. What's more serious is that it often causes the supply chain to collapse.
For example, when a British truck driver wants to cross the Irish Sea, he must fill in more than 80 pieces of data. The form alone takes up nearly ten pieces of paper. Coupled with the Buddhist work culture of public officials, it is common to be stuck at the port for several days.
This is not a container terminal, but a queue at the border checkpoint.
This situation makes the pro-British forces in Northern Ireland more and more painful. They put pressure on the British government every day, saying that the existence of the "Northern Ireland Protocol" is beneficial. The internal separation of Northern Ireland from the British forces has actually weakened Northern Ireland's status in the United Kingdom.
In short, " if things go on like this, the country will no longer be a country." They asked the British government to find a way to solve it.
This year, Johnson finally made up his mind, so there was such a drama of tearing up the agreement.
What gave him a strong sense of crisis was a major change:
Last month, Sinn Féin, which strongly insisted on Northern Ireland's separation from the United Kingdom and return to Ireland, defeated the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party in the Northern Ireland Assembly election. Won a majority of seats and became the largest party in parliament for the first time.
, a century-old Brexit fighting group, won for the first time, which means that Northern Ireland’s referendum on Brexit will be put on the agenda faster than the British government imagined.
Now, Johnson will not dare to neglect at all, otherwise it will be a matter of minutes for the UK to be completely disintegrated during his term.
He did not want to be like his great-grandfather Ali Kemal Bey, the last interior minister of the Ottoman Turkish Empire, who had to give away another empire with his own hands.
Therefore, this preparation to tear up the agreement with the European Union is not as simple as a customs clearance issue, but the beginning of a series of attempts to save the situation in Northern Ireland.
This is the essence of the problem we want to see.
Moreover, this is not Johnson’s problem alone, but the consensus of the British government.
For example, the British Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Justice and Justice Raab said that it is an urgent task for the United Kingdom to amend the Northern Ireland Protocol, because the protocol issues are endangering the stability of Northern Ireland .
You see, even the judge is thinking about tearing up the agreement that has become international law , which shows how urgent this issue is.
Specific to the issue of customs clearance, the Johnson government has come up with three methods:
1. Ask the EU to significantly reduce the red tape of customs clearance;
2. Add a green channel. If the product is destined for Northern Ireland, use the green channel to quickly clear customs. ;
3. Formulate different customs clearance policies for different types of products.
Objectively speaking, these are indeed the best solutions that the British government can come up with.
In addition, the Johnson government also made three demands:
4. Establish a new dual regulatory system to ensure Northern Ireland companies meet British or EU standards at the same time;
5. Eliminate the role of the European Court of Justice in supervising transactions and adopt another system. A "dispute resolution process";
6. The UK government retains more freedom to set the VAT rate in Northern Ireland.
But the EU’s attitude is that Articles 1 and 4 can be discussed, but the rest are exempt from discussion.
The above is the basic background of the problem.
Next, let’s look at the reactions of the parties involved:
United States: The United States is not directly related to this matter, but after all, it is the most important force that the United Kingdom relies on. When the United Kingdom threatened to break the contract last month, Johnson immediately Connor Burns (not Burns, the U.S. ambassador to China) was sent as a special envoy to Washington to fight for it.
Unexpectedly, the United States directly and openly opposed it, and its attitude was very firm:
The American opposition obviously did not have a deterrent effect, because as mentioned above, the United Kingdom really does not dare to give in on the Northern Ireland issue anymore.
European Union: The above describes the EU’s basic attitude towards the UK’s six new ideas, and its overall attitude towards this matter is: no discussion, and we will see it in court later.
For this reason, the EU only gives the British government two months. If the British do not take back their words within two months, or do not come up with a satisfactory answer from the EU, the two sides can only go to court in the European Court of Justice.
and the EU are fighting a lawsuit in the European Court of Justice, and the British do not dare to hope that they can win.
Northern Ireland: This is the core party. Currently, the nationalist parties in Northern Ireland (which advocate the return to Ireland) such as Sinn Féin (SF) and the Social Democratic Labor Party (SDLP) insist that the British government should retain its agreement with the EU. is more centrist. The Alliance Party (APNI) and the Green Party also tend to support retention; Unionist (advocating remaining in the UK) parties such as the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), Traditional Union Voice ( TUV) and others generally advocate breaking up the agreement.
As we said above, the nationalist faction currently controls the majority in the parliament and is much more powerful than the unionist faction.
But there is no way. The only card the UK has now is these unionist parties.
In order to persuade the nationalist parties, the British government said that if the agreement can be revised, it will persuade the unionists to participate in the new Northern Ireland coalition government led by the nationalists -
The powers established in accordance with the "Belfast Agreement" Sharing rules, the Northern Ireland coalition government has one chief minister and one deputy chief minister. The unionist and nationalist factions must each have one. The largest party should be the chief minister, and the second largest party should be the deputy minister. The two have equal power and must be at the same time. Employed or resigned.
Now the Unionists are using this rule to boycott the victorious Sinn Féin Party, preventing the formation of a new government.
The British government said that it would advise the Democratic Unionist Party to give up its boycott as long as Sinn Féin agreed to amend the agreement.
Although this is a card, it is indeed not a big one. After all, whether to form a government or not is a lower priority for the nationalists than the overall route of leaving the UK.
Ireland: As a stakeholder, the Irish government has a very firm attitude, that is, it strongly demands that the current status be maintained and opposes any revision.
Scotland : Originally this matter had no direct relationship with Scotland , but as soon as the Scots saw that the British government was going to tear up the agreement with the EU, they immediately responded to the other person with their own methods, and were ready to overturn it within a generation. Talking about an independence referendum, it is said that another independence referendum will be held immediately next year.
No one understands better than the British government at this moment what it means to have a leaky house and rain all night.
Based on the above analysis of the background and situation, and considering the current messy economic plight of the United Kingdom -
" Washington Post "
- it can be seen that Johnson dared to toss the Northern Ireland Agreement at this time. Of great determination.
can even be said to bet on his own political life.
This is the first essence we want to see. The British government is preparing to burn the boat,
and the root of all this is what was said above. The UK has no retreat.
2
Where are our tactical opportunities?
Everyone should have thought about a question:
Why does the United States oppose the United Kingdom’s tearing up of the Northern Ireland Agreement?
The reason is that it is worried that the UK will use this as a starting point to start the idea of "Belfast Agreement".
So why does it want to uphold the Belfast Agreement?
Because this was what the US government used both hard and soft tactics to force the UK to accept.
Why should it force Britain to accept it?
This gets to the most essential level of the problem:
because it focuses on the votes of more than 40 million Irish Americans in the United States.
This essential need determines that the US government, especially the Democratic government, cannot take care of the British feelings on the Northern Ireland issue.
In other words, the contradiction between Britain and the United States on this issue is unsolvable.
The starting point of the United States' involvement in Northern Ireland affairs is generally believed to have begun in 1977 during the Carter administration of the Democratic Party.
The background at that time was that violent incidents occurred frequently on both sides of Northern Ireland, and a large number of innocent people died in the fighting.
The most typical example of this is "Bloody Sunday" on January 30, 1972. On that day, a demonstration broke out in Northern Ireland against the British government's arbitrary detention system. The British Paratroopers who went to control the situation shot and killed 13 innocent civilians. Seven of them are teenagers. Afterwards, British officials also blamed the organizers of the event and declared the army's actions innocent.
It was not until 26 years later, during the negotiations of the Belfast Agreement, that the British government restarted the investigation into the incident and announced the final results on June 15, 2010. The British Supreme Court announced that the demonstrators who were shot dead by British troops during the march were not "terrorists" as previously claimed, but innocent victims. The then Prime Minister Cameron apologized to the victims on behalf of the British government.
On March 24, 1972, the British government further announced that it would directly manage Northern Ireland and terminate the activities of the Northern Ireland Parliament.
Since then, the situation in Northern Ireland has gone out of control, and the bomb attacks started by the Irish Republican Army have intensified.
In retaliation, Northern Ireland forces loyal to the United Kingdom also began to act, such as the notorious "Shankill Butchers" who brutally tortured and killed people on Belfast's Shankill Road from 1975 to 1982. 23 innocent residents who believed or were suspected of believing in Catholicism instead of the Anglican Church.
This situation made Irish voters in the United States very dissatisfied, so the old card statement mainly accused the United Kingdom of being indifferent to Northern Ireland affairs.
But after all, this is At that time, the main conflict was still against the Soviet Union, so the U.S. government was just talking and stopping there.
By the time of Clinton , the Soviet Union no longer existed, and the U.S. government began to rectify its internal affairs. As the core ally, Britain was naturally affected by " "Focus on care".
Therefore, in order to force the British government to abandon Northern Ireland - of course, it can also be "understood in good faith" that the United States is thinking about Britain and hopes that the United Kingdom can shed its historical burden as soon as possible - Clinton personally went to battle and offered assistance to the British government. Press.
Look, it’s the Democratic Party again.
In 1994, despite the opposition of the British government, Clinton insisted on granting Sinn Féin Chairman Gerry Adams 48-hour visa to the United States. This move marked the U.S. government’s shift to a comprehensive intervention policy.
Since then, the United States began to financially support the separatist forces in Northern Ireland, such as relaxing restrictions on nationalist fundraising, establishing an interdepartmental committee to guide investment in Northern Ireland, etc.
In this case, the British government, which is suffering from internal and external troubles, has lost its ability to counterattack possibility, we can only speed up the compromise and finally sign the " Belfast Agreement".
Johnson cannot be unaware of this sad history.
For this reason, when he announced his push to amend the "Northern Ireland Agreement", From now on, we must be mentally prepared to resist the pressure from the United States.
This is an opportunity for us.
What opportunity?
It is to force the British government to give up its unrealistic adventurous impulse towards China policy and accelerate Sino-British trade opportunity for agreement.
The China-UK trade agreement was proposed by the British government on its own initiative, and it was proposed as early as 2016 after the Brexit referendum. At that time, senior British government officials, including Johnson, who was still the Foreign Secretary, clearly expressed their welcome.
Why did the British propose this free trade agreement?
Because the core pillar of the British government's "Global Britain" vision after Brexit is that the economy must get rid of its huge dependence on the EU. To achieve this, the best way is of course not to reduce trade with Europe, but to actively seek growth. Other areas are the fastest to catch up on the express train of growth.
To this end, the British government has formulated a series of economic policies including actively promoting various free trade agreements, participating in and promoting WTO reform, improving multilateral trade rules, building a liberalized environment for international trade in services, and formulating digital trade rules.
The most critical thing is to actively promote various free trade agreements.
Then the British government looked at the globe and decided to focus on the Asia-Pacific region, so began to tinker.
So how many has it signed in total over the years?
has signed less than 10 countries, including Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand and several Pacific island countries (Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Samoa).
What is the total trade volume between these countries and the UK?
is about $120 billion.
is roughly the level of trade between the UK and China.
Last year, China-UK bilateral trade in goods exceeded US$110 billion for the first time, making China the UK's third largest trading partner and largest source of goods imports.
In other words, if the UK can finalize the China-UK Free Trade Agreement, it will be equivalent to doubling the results of economic globalization over the years in one fell swoop.
The key is that China’s growth rate and growth potential are completely unmatched by the other above-mentioned countries combined.
This is why since last year, the British government has frequently expressed its hope of restarting negotiations.
In a word, the British government is in dire straits internally and externally, and it really can no longer hold on.
Then why is it said that negotiations on the China-UK Free Trade Agreement are being restarted?
Because after Britain left the European Union, Sino-British relations continued for a short period of "golden age", and this negotiation began to advance from that time.
Brexit was carried out in June 2016, and negotiations were launched in July
However, after Johnson successively became British Foreign Secretary and then Prime Minister, the British government became obsessed with the so-called ideological alliance and values diplomacy, and frequently made damaging and stupid moves against China, which directly led to This negotiation has been suspended since 2018, and the annual China-UK High-Level Economic and Financial Dialogue and the China-UK Joint Economic and Trade Committee have also been suspended.
Now, guess who realized this error first?
Seeing this, some comrades may ask:
Why did he restart the negotiation when he said he wanted to restart it? Isn't it okay to make him feel uncomfortable?
This sentiment is understandable. After all, the Johnson administration has indeed done many things that we despise, and it is self-inflicted.
However, from a rational perspective, if we can negotiate now, there will be at least four benefits:
1. As far as Sino-British relations are concerned, it can force the British government to give up some unrealistic illusions and correct some decisions that harm others and do not benefit ourselves.
For example, it requires the UK to abide by its duties and not cross the line on issues involving Hong Kong, Xinjiang and maritime affairs in the future. It also requires relaxing restrictions on Chinese companies' participation in the UK's 5G infrastructure construction.
2. As far as the agreement itself is concerned, more ideal conditions can be negotiated;
For example, it can prompt the UK to recognize China's market economy status (MES) as soon as possible, which will be helpful for us to sign free trade agreements with other major Western countries in the future. It helps a lot.
3. It can promote the China-EU Bilateral Investment Agreement;
As an actor, the EU now feels "very good" about itself, and its parliament has blatantly "frozen" the China-EU Investment Agreement that was finally negotiated. It is difficult to deal with this situation as a whole. The current atmosphere can only be gradually changed through the major countries within it. The China-UK Free Trade Agreement will effectively increase the sense of urgency of these countries, thereby achieving the effect of leveraging the EU.
4. It will help curb the British anti-China noise.
The restart of negotiations on the Sino-British Free Trade Agreement will be in sharp contrast to the US's stance of threatening the UK-US Free Trade Agreement on this issue. It will help the British calm down and see who is the real threat to the UK.
Of course, the Sino-British trade agreement itself has many win-win aspects, such as improving both sides’ global rule dominance and competitiveness. However, today we will mainly talk about the benefits of restarting now, and we will not go into detail on these.
As for whether this will affect our relationship with Northern Ireland, you don’t need to worry about this issue, because China and Northern Ireland have long-term friendly relations. Over the years, long-term strategic cooperation has developed comprehensively and in-depth, and exchanges at all levels in various fields are also very close.
In addition, the China-UK Free Trade Agreement itself does not change the areas and factors of exchanges between China and Northern Ireland. It is even beneficial to promoting Northern Ireland's trade with China, so it will not have a negative effect.
In summary, the current opportunity is favorable to us, and we should make good use of this tactical opportunity.
Finally, let’s share a little story about Britain:
On April 3, 1952, when the United States was severely implementing the “blockade and embargo” against China, the first International Economic Conference was held in Moscow.
At that time, the British government, which was known to have given up its position as the world leader, not only resisted the pressure from the United States and approved the British delegation to participate in the meeting, but also suggested that the delegation should take the initiative to find the Chinese delegation to negotiate bilateral trade business.
So on the first day of the conference, the British delegation came to talk to us and proposed to exchange their textiles, metals and chemicals for our coal, egg products , bristles , pig casings , soybeans and vegetable oil, etc.
These are materials strictly controlled by Americans.
Before this trip, our delegation had received clear instructions from Premier Zhou:
"It is a rare opportunity to participate in such an international economic conference and cannot be given up. There, the scope of interactions with foreign delegations should be wider, and we should strive to open up more opportunities for us to communicate with the West." The situation of national trade exchanges."
Therefore, the delegation responded positively to the British.
In this way, China and the UK successfully signed the "China-UK Trade Agreement", agreeing that both parties would realize commodity trade worth 10 million pounds each, of which the first batch of sales contracts was worth 3.5 million pounds.
Before signing, the British delegation submitted the final list to the British government. The British government held a cabinet meeting and gave the following reply:
"The United Kingdom has long been prepared to trade the above goods with China. If necessary, it can be done through Hong Kong or British businessmen in Shanghai signed a trade agreement. If China is in urgent need of trade with Britain, the British government is also willing to reach a trade agreement with China through official channels (charge d'affaires in China)."
Yes, Britain became the first major Western country to recognize the People's Republic of China on January 6, 1950, so it has official channels in China.
Now, they will also become the first major Western country to break the US blockade and embargo policy against China.
The signing of this trade agreement dropped a shock bomb for the conference. Not only the socialist countries were very excited, France, West Germany , Belgium , the Netherlands and other capitalist camp countries were also very excited. scrambling to emulate Britain's move.
In the end, at this meeting, China obtained a huge trade agreement with a total value of 200 million US dollars, and also signed a trade agreement with a total value of 60 million pounds with representatives of the Japanese business community, which severely dealt a blow to the arrogance of the United States.
This is Britain, a Britain with a high spirit of realism.
Seventy years have passed, and the momentum of the United Kingdom today is no longer comparable to that of that time, and the strength and status of China and the United Kingdom have also been turned upside down, but we still remember this matter to this day.
If this thing tells us something, then the biggest truth is undoubtedly:
The United Kingdom is a country that has a very good power if it is properly utilized.
Especially for "hurting" the United States.
