Many people told me that investing in the stock market or buying funds does not require understanding of any political or policy aspects. Buffett has also expressed many times: "Don't predict the market."
Even does not predict the market , and its grasp of politics seems to be even more useless. Just study stocks or a certain fund.
This seems to be correct, but if you analyze it carefully, you will find obvious mistakes.
Buffett seems to never care about politics and devotes almost all his energy to the research of stock market investment.
But this is not true. Buffett is not only very concerned about politics, but also personally participated in many major political activities in the United States in the 1970s and 1980s. (This article will not be a matter of whether he directly supports the election of a certain American politician or his personal relationship with certain politicians).
This is mainly reflected in some of the stock investments he has made.
Since around 1970, he has been buying shares in many newspapers including " Washington Post ", holding at least two more influential local newspapers, and has also participated in the comprehensive leading media companies such as American Radio and Television Station . It can be said that my love for the media has entered its bones.
Buffett's father started as an editor of the newspaper and later went to politics. He served as the Republican House of Representatives in Nebragas, USA, and was a top politician in the local area.
Buffett's first job as a child was to be a newspaper boy in Washington, D.C. At that time, the Wall Street Post was transporting every day.
To be honest, Buffett's investment in many media in the last century did bring great returns to him. However, these investments are definitely not just for pure financial gain, like their investment in Coca-Cola.
So, does Buffett have any other purpose in investing in these media?
The answer is yes. According to the editor-in-chief or reporter of these media later recalled that Buffett had suggested to these media many times that the topic selection ideas for news reports, and even personally participated in the planning of some news reports, writing articles and subsequent review.
The most exaggerated example is that a local newspaper under Buffett once reported the scandal of a public welfare fund company due to his instruction. With the participation of the stock god, this report won the highest honor in the United States news that year - the Pulitzer Prize .
This shows that Buffett has several significant advantages in investing in the media. First, he can know a lot of information about the market or national economy and people's livelihood in advance; second, he can express his attitudes and ideas through these media; third, he can open up the situation for his Berkshire in the media and public opinion circles and refute some negative reports; fourth, he can influence American politics.
American politics relies heavily on the power of the media. As the son of a senior Republican congressman, Buffett cannot not understand the mystery.
From the above story of Buffett, we can make it clear that the participation or influence of the stock god in politics comes largely from his investment and intervention in media companies.
On the other hand, one of the important reasons why Charlie Munger and his best partner in the past was so keen on investing in media companies might be some of the political layout.
If you want to become a stock god, it seems that it will be a lot worse if you don’t engage in politics.
Return to us ordinary investors or investors, we certainly do not have any ability or opportunity to participate in media investment or influence any political and public opinion. But we must never ignore the political trend.
The simplest counterexample is that when we are blinded by international politics and cannot accurately understand the latest progress in Sino-US relations, many investments may be in danger because of the clash between China and the United States in the fields of technology and trade.
Of course, the national economic trend has always been influenced by the political line. The relatively loose or relatively tight fiscal and monetary policy may be predicted in advance from some policy discussions or the highest-level documents (including some important articles in the People's Daily ).
And fiscal and monetary policies often have huge influence on the financial market.
For example, for platform companies, individual industries or listed companies in tracks (such as education and training or real estate), an invisible hand can always determine the profitability of these companies in the short term and short term. If investors can analyze the political line or the pace of policy actions in advance, they are likely to make arrangements in advance, avoid large losses or simply obtain greater benefits.
This is the power of information and the ability to judge macro politics and policies.
Some mainstream funds in the world, such as Bridgewater or Blackstone are actually experts in this field.
If you want to obtain excess investment returns through analysis of current affairs, the knowledge and tragedies here may be something that ordinary people cannot obtain in their entire lives. Therefore, in terms of operability, this strategy is actually very unfavorable.
, but it is not that there is no trick.
Especially once we have a good understanding of news and public opinion trends (such as the latest photos of a retired leader) or some highly disseminated articles (such as some major editorials about economic route choices), we can predict many changes in policy routes in advance and provide a basis for investment decisions.
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[Important reminder] Investments in stock markets, funds and other investments are risky. Past performance does not indicate future performance. Investment should be cautious. The above views only represent the opinions of relevant authors or media, do not mean that Wenji has a good position, nor do they constitute investment advice to readers. The content of the article is for research and study purposes only, and the stocks, funds, etc. involved do not constitute any investment advice.
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